• Experts say North Korea’s next move will decide between renewed talks or continued stalemate

ANKARA/ISTANBUL

South Korean President Lee Jae-myung’s early overtures to Pyongyang have raised cautious hopes for a thaw in relations on the Korean Peninsula, but experts say the path forward depends squarely on North Korea’s next move.

As Lee signals a willingness to engage, the question looming over Seoul’s diplomacy is whether the North will respond constructively or revert to provocation.

This is the second installment of Anadolu’s special series Hope for Reunification: Is a New Beginning Possible on the Korean Peninsula?

A war without a peace treaty

The Korean War began on June 25, 1950, when North Korea invaded the South. It ended in July 1953 with an armistice, but no peace treaty was signed, leaving the two sides technically still at war.

Decades of diplomatic efforts have produced limited and short-lived results. Still, President Lee has emphasized his commitment to dialogue.

“The most secure path to national security is building a state that never needs to go to war — in other words, peace,” he said.

Shortly after Lee’s inauguration, North Korea halted propaganda broadcasts at the border, mirroring a similar move by Seoul. The rare reciprocal gesture led to speculation over whether tensions might ease.

Experts urge caution despite signals

Ramon Pacheco Pardo, a professor of international relations at King’s College London, said Lee appears serious about improving ties with the North, but geopolitical shifts complicate the outlook.

“South Korea will need to do more than just suspend propaganda to bring Pyongyang to the negotiating table,” he told Anadolu. “The close ties between North Korea and Russia are making Seoul proceed with great caution.”

Pardo said the suspension of loudspeaker broadcasts is still “an important step toward easing tensions,” even if it is not unprecedented.

“Ultimately, I believe inter-Korean dialogue will happen sooner or later,” he said, adding that it could serve the interests of both sides.

Key-young Son, a scholar at Korea University’s Institute for Asian Studies, echoed that view, saying the recent gestures are largely symbolic and far from decisive.

Whether they evolve into substantive steps remains uncertain.

A more pragmatic approach from Seoul

According to Son, President Lee’s policy may reflect a more measured and realistic stance compared to past administrations.

“His political background suggests a preference for tangible, phased progress over grand symbolic initiatives,” Son said.

While the early moves signal intent, he said it’s unclear whether they will lead to formal negotiations or broader normalization.

North Korea’s role remains decisive

Son emphasized that Lee’s approach is grounded in conditional pragmatism -- not ideology.

“He has made it clear that he does not intend to pursue unilateral communication,” Son said.

“As long as Pyongyang avoids significantly escalating tensions, I don’t expect Seoul to rush into any agreements.”

He also said North Korea’s reaction will ultimately determine whether the diplomatic door opens or shuts.

International influence looms large

External actors will also shape the trajectory.

“Any moves toward normalization between the Koreas will draw close attention from countries like the US and Japan,” Son said.

He added that both US President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba could respond with initiatives of their own to shape developments on the Peninsula.

Internal priorities slow momentum

For now, both Koreas appear preoccupied with domestic and strategic concerns.

“South Korea is focused on internal economic challenges and tariff tensions with the US,” Son said.

“North Korea, meanwhile, is prioritizing its alignment with Moscow, especially in the context of the war in Ukraine.”

Son said continued engagement between Seoul and Pyongyang will depend on how each side manages the balance between internal pressures and geopolitical considerations in the coming months.