• Regional governments see new opportunity, but also face a strategic dilemma over how to balance competing major powers

• Experts say the region will need major investment to become a significant supplier, with extraction and processing posing key challenges

ISTANBUL 

Central Asia is emerging as a key arena in the global scramble for rare earth elements and critical minerals – the backbone of modern energy, tech and defense industries – as major powers compete to secure stable supply chains.

Amid this intensifying competition, Central Asia “has become even more central,” said Emil Dzhuraev of the Kyrgyzstan-based Crossroads Central Asia Institute, as governments across the region reassess their position amid growing US, Chinese and Russian interest.

Their importance was on display at last month’s C5+1 summit in Washington, where US President Donald Trump hosted leaders from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

During the summit, the nations and the US pledged cooperation on “secure, reliable, and diversified energy supplies” and greater investment and trade in critical minerals – a sign of how quickly these resources have climbed up the diplomatic agenda, and how the nations, traditionally within Russia’s sphere of influence, are seeking to leverage their position globally.

Yet experts say the geopolitical spotlight is arriving long before Central Asia becomes a major producer. With extraction barely underway, the region is still navigating what this new interest actually means for its economies, sovereignty and foreign policy choices.

- Growing interest and new dilemmas

While acknowledging that the competition for influence in Central Asia has long existed, Dzhuraev told Anadolu that it has taken on new dimensions as critical minerals have grown in importance.

The key question, he argued, is whether Central Asian governments can avoid becoming “merely passive platforms” in this process – and instead secure their own interests as sovereign actors who can “decide, influence, and set the tone and rhythm of this competition.”

He said the significance of these minerals in global supply chains means their political value for the region “will only grow,” though Central Asia remains in the very early stages of exploration and development.

This creates both opportunity and pressure.

Dzhuraev described the situation as a “dilemma” for the five states with regards to how to cooperate with one another while negotiating simultaneously with the world’s biggest powers – particularly the US, Russia and China.

“Regardless, this has certainly been a very important, positive boost for them, something they certainly wanted and are now trying to exploit to their fullest advantage,” he said.

Temur Umarov of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center offered a more cautious view.

He said the heightened international attention has not yet translated into “any real changes” in the foreign policy approach of the region’s capitals.

Central Asia, he argued, is courted by major powers primarily for reasons other than rare earth metals and critical minerals, such as China’s and Russia’s own strategic interests and the West’s efforts to counter both.

- Investment and extraction challenges

Experts agree that Central Asia’s mineral potential is significant – but unlocking it will require vast investment, new technology and long-term commitments.

Umarov noted that Central Asia has been extracting and processing oil and gas for a long time, particularly Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, with a large portion of their budgets depending on the export of these hydrocarbons.

But critical minerals are far more complex.

“These resources sometimes need to be extracted, processed and shipped in a special way,” he said, pointing out that the mining and refining chain is technologically demanding and capital-intensive.

Currently, Central Asia’s contribution to global supply of rare earths and critical minerals is “not very large,” he added, with China dominating global production.

“To increase it would require significant investment, which is not happening yet,” Umarov said, adding that despite the presence of huge reserves, how to extract these resources remains a “big question.”

Dzhuraev said rare earths could bring transformational development similar to hydrocarbons – but only with “greater initial investment.”

“They are more critically important, and in some ways even more directly tied to security – literally in the traditional sense of national and industrial security,” he added. “Therefore, they are perhaps more sensitive, posing more pressing issues for major countries worldwide.”

As a result, he argued, this growing strategic importance will inevitably “affect the maneuverability – and the risks – for the countries of Central Asia.”