• More than 890 million adults worldwide are obese, double the 1990 figure, a surge placing immense pressure on health systems and economies worldwide
• Obesity costs over 2% of global GDP, projected to top 3% by 2060 without action- Experts call for stronger food regulation, wider access to obesity drugs, and improved education and healthcare services
• Costs of obesity will be ‘unmanageable’ in the near future, warns Angie Jackson-Morris of the World Obesity Federation

ISTANBUL 

Once viewed mainly as a health issue, obesity has become an escalating economic crisis, with rising global rates threatening to weigh down growth and overwhelm public budgets.

Since 1990, adult obesity has more than doubled and adolescent obesity has quadrupled, transforming the world’s health landscape.

“The costs are going to be unmanageable in not that many years,” Angie Jackson-Morris, director of program development and strategy at the World Obesity Federation, told Anadolu.

In 2022, more than 2.5 billion adults were overweight, including 890 million with obesity, according to the World Health Organization (WHO) – a surge placing immense pressure on health systems and economies worldwide.

“Obesity and all the related complications are quite high … and not slowing down,” said Barry Popkin, professor of nutrition at the University of North Carolina.

Global trends also reveal widening disparities, with low- and middle-income countries bearing the brunt of the fastest growth.

Meanwhile, poorer populations and rural areas are generally seeing the sharpest gains. Popkin explained that while this does not apply to Africa, the pattern is playing out in most large Asian countries, Latin America and higher-income nations.

“Not a single country in the world has seen a particular reduction in overweight and obesity,” Popkin said.

The Middle East has recorded the steepest rise, while rates in wealthier nations continue to grow more slowly – but from already high levels.

- What’s fueling the epidemic?

Experts stress that obesity is not simply the result of personal choices. Instead, it is largely shaped by the environments societies have built.

“Over the last probably 40 or 30 years … we’ve kind of created societies, environments that are very difficult for people to fight against,” she said. “All kinds of factors are feeding in, making it very difficult for people to manage their weight.”

Heavily marketed processed foods, sedentary work and limited access to green spaces and affordable healthy diets have fueled what researchers call “obesogenic environments.”

Popkin pointed to two major shifts: the rise of snacking and the mass consumption of ultra-processed foods. The “addictive” science behind these products, he said, is a powerful driver of global obesity.

“As a world, we’ve allowed companies to promote highly processed foods, to market them so that everybody wants them,” Jackson-Morris said. “They’re seen as attractive. They’re very affordable.”

- Economic fallout grows

Obesity’s economic toll is staggering. The World Obesity Federation estimates that it already costs more than 2% of global GDP – a figure projected to exceed 3% by 2060 without stronger action.

These costs include both direct medical expenses and indirect losses from reduced productivity and early mortality.

“Its economic impact is vast, affecting productivity, education, welfare systems and infrastructure, creating a cascading fiscal burden for governments,” a WHO spokesperson told Anadolu in a statement.

A 2022 study by the World Obesity Federation projects that, without better prevention and treatment efforts, the global economic cost of overweight and obesity could hit $4.32 trillion annually by 2035.

WHO estimates put the costs at $3 trillion by 2030, potentially soaring to over $18 trillion by 2060.

Thirteen of the 16 major cancers are now linked to obesity and diet, Popkin noted, alongside rising rates of diabetes, hypertension, strokes and heart disease. He also warned of negative effects on mental health, including depression.

“We don’t want families, individuals who are having to drop out of work because of illness … because we haven’t done enough to prevent overweight and obesity and help them manage their weight better,” Jackson-Morris said.

She added that the greatest strain will fall on resource-limited countries.

“We will have countries in Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa … that need to spend money on all kinds of different things and don’t want to be losing a large part of the economy,” she said.

Obesity-related absenteeism is also rising globally.

For instance, children with obesity miss more school days than their peers. This increases demand for remedial and special education, which leads to lower academic attainment, reduced lifetime earnings and greater reliance on social programs, according to the WHO.

Some country-level impacts are already clear.

In Abu Dhabi, where 72% of adults were classified as overweight or obese in 2022, the annual economic burden is projected to rise from 26.6 billion dirhams ($7.2 billion) to nearly 40 billion dirhams ($10.9 billion) by 2060. In China, the lifetime cost of childhood and adolescent obesity is estimated at 218 trillion yuan ($30 trillion).

If current trajectories continue, most countries could see over 70% of their populations living with overweight or obesity by 2060, including children.

Already, more than 4 million deaths each year are linked to overweight and obesity. In 2021 alone, obesity contributed to 3.7 million deaths from related noncommunicable diseases including cancer, diabetes and cardiovascular illness, according to WHO.

Popkin warned of a future marked by rising disability and chronic disease.

“You’re going to find an increasing proportion of people going around in motorized wheelchairs,” he said. “At the same time, you’re going to see among younger and younger ages the increases in diabetes, hypertension, and other things. The long-term health costs are going to grow exponentially.”

- Paths to prevention and care

Despite the alarming trends, experts insist solutions are within reach.

Jackson-Morris called for stronger food regulation to reduce salt, fat and sugar in diets, alongside urban planning reforms to encourage physical activity.

“Communities need to redesign urban environments so that people can move safely, comfortably, to make them attractive for people to move,” she added.

She emphasized a comprehensive approach: recognizing obesity as a disease, expanding access to new medications such as GLP-1 receptor agonists, and improving psychosocial support, healthcare and education.

“Prevention on its own will not help all of the people who are living with overweight and obesity now,” she said.

Popkin proposed a global framework, such as a UN convention on obesity, though he cautioned that international agencies remain underfunded.

Jackson-Morris also urged a more compassionate approach.

“It is not something your community members are to blame for. We’ve got to help them so that we can be a healthier community and society,” she said.

- Progress in motion

Some countries have already begun to turn the tide.

In Latin America, front-of-pack warning labels and sugar taxes have reduced sugary drink purchases. In Chile, sales dropped by 24% within 18 months of new labeling laws.

Mexico’s sugar tax curbed consumption, especially among low-income households. South Africa’s levy has both cut intake and funded health programs.

“Latin America has led the way,” said Jackson-Morris, also noting significant momentum in South Africa and Europe.

In Japan, a policy requiring waistline checks and lifestyle counseling for middle-aged adults has helped keep obesity rates below 4%. Norway and Finland have combined school meals, taxes and marketing restrictions to slow obesity growth. Saudi Arabia has expanded access to obesity medications while strengthening food policies.

Globally, more than 90 countries now tax sugary drinks, while others, including Canada, Israel and several African nations, have adopted front-of-pack warning labels. Cities around the world are also redesigning urban spaces and school food environments.

As governments prepare for a UN high-level meeting on noncommunicable diseases in September, experts call on governments to treat obesity as both a health and economic priority.

“There are ways to address this as a world,” Jackson-Morris added. “Let’s do something about it.”