• Summit in Brazil’s Amazon city of Belem aims to turn climate pledges into concrete action amid record heat, stalled global progress
• Experts say adaptation, new national climate plans, climate finance will dominate talks as many major emitters miss deadlines
• US withdrawal from Paris Agreement and low world leader turnout may cloud summit’s momentum on fossil fuel transition

ISTANBUL 

As Brazil prepares to host the COP30 climate summit, pressure is mounting on countries to turn years of promises into measurable action to curb global warming.

The conference, set for Nov. 10-21 in Belem on the edge of the Amazon rainforest, comes amid record heat waves, stalled emission cuts and geopolitical rifts that threaten to derail climate diplomacy.

“COP30 is about moving from words to deeds,” Chris Aylett, a research fellow in the Environment and Society Centre at Chatham House, told Anadolu. “What we need to see in Belem is countries committing to actions which fulfill goals already set, like transitioning away from fossil fuels, protecting forests or increasing climate finance.”

Experts say this year’s summit, marking 10 years since the Paris Agreement, could determine whether the world still has a chance to limit warming to 1.5C (2.7F) above pre-industrial levels.  

What’s on the agenda?

According to Katherine Browne, a research fellow at the Stockholm Environment Institute, the summit will focus on three core issues: adaptation, new climate pledges and finance.

The first is the Global Goal on Adaptation, a framework to track progress in coping with climate impacts such as heat waves, droughts and floods.

“This is basically a way to try and measure whether we are making progress on adapting to climate impacts,” Browne said. “It’s come out of a long effort to try and put adaptation and mitigation on the same footing and say that they’re equally important.”

A second focus involves Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) – national climate plans required under the Paris Agreement every five years.

Only 64 countries, representing 30% of emissions, met this year’s deadline, while major emitters such as the EU are still finalizing their targets.

“A lot of countries are behind … including some really big actors like the EU, which is still trying to decide on its plan,” said Browne.

The third and most contentious issue is climate finance – the pledge by wealthy nations to support developing countries.

At COP26 in Glasgow, rich nations vowed to double funding for climate adaptation by 2025, but Browne said, “It’s looking like that won’t be delivered, and that’s probably going to send a negative signal that influences the discussions.”  

Who’s attending?

Several heads of state and high-level officials are expected, including from Türkiye, Germany, France, the UK, Thailand and Pakistan, though attendance is lower than in previous years.

Brazil says fewer than 60 world leaders have confirmed attendance, down from 80 at COP29 in Baku. Missing are leaders of four of the world’s five largest polluters – China, the US, India and Russia.

“It indicates that climate change is not as high a priority for many countries right now,” said Browne. “In a lot of countries, national security is very high on the agenda.”

Still, she noted, limited attendance may not spell disaster. “It’s symbolically important that leaders show up, but at the end of the day that’s all they’re doing – showing up and acting like they care versus doing something very concrete.”

Aylett said climate action remains closely tied to national interests.

“It’s no secret that climate change has slipped down the geopolitical agenda in the last few years,” he said. “However, many of the actions needed to tackle climate change are integral to national security, and so are likely to gather momentum anyway.”

Energy security, for instance, is key and renewable energy enables countries to reduce their reliance on imported fossil fuels.

“Protecting citizens against extreme weather and food price shocks – in other words, adapting to climate change – is essential for any government that wants to maintain its legitimacy,” he added.  

US withdrawal and its impact

The US will not send a high-level delegation to COP30, according to the White House, following President Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement earlier this year.

Since taking office, Trump has slashed funding for vulnerable nations, cut environmental budgets and expanded domestic oil and gas production.

Aylett said that while US participation has been crucial to previous summits, under current circumstances a high-level US delegation might do more harm than good.

“That is not to say that other actors from the US – governors, mayors and pro-climate businesses – cannot make an important contribution in Belem,” he added.

He accused Washington of not only withdrawing from global climate efforts, but actively trying to derail them.

“We saw this last month at the International Maritime Organization, and we see it in the way President Trump is strong-arming trading partners into buying huge quantities of American oil and gas,” he said.

Browne called the US stance “a challenge.”

“If the world’s largest economy is not part of the agreement, it’s hard for other countries to make ambitious claims and goals,” she said. “But I think the Paris Agreement survived the US withdrawing once, it will survive again … many countries recognize that they have to go ahead with or without the US.”  

Fossil fuel debate likely to stall

With 2025 marking a decade since the Paris Agreement, COP30 will test global progress toward phasing out fossil fuels – the main driver of climate change.

“The language of ‘moving away,’ ‘transitioning away from fossil fuels’ remains contested,” said Browne. “It’s going to be very challenging for countries to transition – particularly for countries whose economies are fully dependent on fossil fuel production."

The Paris Agreement aims to limit temperature rise to well below 2C (3.6F), ideally 1.5C (2.7F), but emissions continue to grow.

“Emissions are still rising – the core thing we are trying to limit and global warming is increasing, perhaps even faster than we expected,” said Browne. “The most important development is that we're seeing these plans and so people in each country can hold their governments accountable.”

However, she predicted little progress on fossil fuel phaseout this year.  

Will vulnerable nations see results?

For small island states and the world’s poorest countries, success at COP30 will depend on concrete action on adaptation and finance.

“These nations have long felt that climate talks focus too much on emissions, which mainly concern wealthy countries, and not enough on helping them adapt,” Browne said.

Agreement on the Global Goal on Adaptation would be a major breakthrough, she said, along with tangible progress on adaptation finance.

“This is another major priority for the world’s poorest countries – getting tangible financial support to build resilience,” she said.

Hosting the summit in the Amazon, she noted, is highly symbolic.

“Brazil can take leadership and draw attention to the role of the Amazon as the lungs of the planet and to deforestation rates,” she said. “That might be the most important thing accomplished at COP – shaping the narrative.”