LONDON 

Finnish President Alexander Stubb said on Wednesday that any peace deal in Ukraine must involve both Kyiv and European allies, stressing that "no peace in Ukraine without Ukraine, and no peace in Ukraine without Europe."

Speaking at a panel in the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Stubb warned against rushed settlements that could echo the missteps of Afghanistan and a flawed agreement could later be seen as a betrayal of Ukraine’s sovereignty.

Finnish president's remarks came at a session he attended alongside IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi, and Libyan Prime Minister Abdulhamid Al-Dabiba.

Stubb acknowledged that US president Donald Trump might seek a diplomatic resolution to the war, driven by his desire for credit in brokering international peace.

However, he cautioned that any peace deal must not undermine European security architecture or embolden Russia to pursue further territorial aggression.

Despite the ongoing war, Stubb remains cautiously optimistic about Ukraine’s resilience, asserting that the Russian military is stagnating and its economy is in "much, much, much worse shape" than some claim.

He underscored that the outcome of the Ukraine war will shape global security, warning that if territorial conquest goes unpunished, similar power grabs could occur worldwide, leading to "a chaotic world."

Nuclear proliferation on rise

IAEA Director-General Grossi voiced grave concerns about the erosion of nuclear agreements, which he said are fueling a renewed interest in nuclear weapons.

“Longstanding norms are deteriorating,” Grossi stated, pointing to discussions in South Korea, Japan, and the Middle East about potential nuclear armament.

Grossi pointed out that Ukraine’s decision to relinquish nuclear weapons in the 1990s is being debated in hindsight, with some questioning whether the country might have been more secure had it retained them.

He noted a worrying trend in Asia and the Middle East, where several nations—including South Korea and Japan—are publicly discussing nuclear armament.

He added that the situation is particularly volatile in the Middle East, where Iran continues to operate under "strategic ambiguity" regarding its nuclear capabilities.

Grossi highlighted the risk of a regional arms race, warning that if Iran were to acquire a nuclear weapon, other countries—potentially including NATO allies—could follow suit.

He warned that this shift threatens one of the foundational pillars of global security—the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)—which has historically helped prevent nuclear expansion.