• Experts say Syria’s $216B reconstruction bill far exceeds what donor aid can cover, making investment the only viable path to recovery
• New data shows nearly half of all destruction is in infrastructure, with rebuilding costs nearly 10 times the country’s GDP

ISTANBUL

As Syria marks the first anniversary of the December 8 revolution, the scale of destruction remains staggering. More than a decade of conflict shattered infrastructure, collapsed economic activity and left entire cities in ruins – and experts warn that traditional aid alone cannot restore the country.

A new World Bank report estimates reconstruction needs at between $140 billion and $345 billion, settling on a “best estimate” of $216 billion – nearly 10 times Syria’s 2024 gross domestic product (GDP) of $21.4 billion.

Of that total, $75 billion covers residential buildings, $59 billion non-residential structures, and $82 billion essential infrastructure such as power grids, roads, and water networks. Infrastructure alone accounts for nearly half of all destruction.

The hardest-hit regions – Aleppo, rural Damascus, and Homs – require the largest share of capital to recover basic economic function. Crucially, the report warns that these figures are “conservative” due to uncertainty inherent in satellite-based assessments in active conflict zones.

Experts say the numbers point to a clear conclusion: donor aid, no matter how generous, cannot mobilize resources on this scale.

Baraa Khurfan, a researcher focusing on governance and economy in Syria, said the scale of damage dwarfs all previous aid programs.

“Given this cost, it is difficult to rely on aid, especially in light of the decline in support that Syria has seen in recent years,” he said. “To launch the reconstruction process, investment is the faster and more practical solution.”

Khurfan said investment interest is rising in parallel with Syria’s efforts to reintegrate economically and politically into the region after 14 years of isolation.

“Aid usually comes with conditions imposed by donor states, which can make implementation more time-consuming,” Khurfan said, adding that aid is not sustainable over a long period unlike investments, which could have a tangible impact on the economy through job creation and the development of industry in Syria.

The World Bank told Anadolu that it is “currently in discussions with Syrian authorities on priority areas for expanded support and financing,” while also continuing foundational analyses.

Benjamin Feve, a senior research analyst at Karam Shaar Advisory Limited, said the reconstruction bill is so large that “grants alone could never close the gap,” particularly as donors are overstretched by crises in Ukraine, Gaza, Sudan and climate financing.

“The countries most willing to re-engage with Damascus today – above all Gulf states and Türkiye – are structurally geared to deploy capital through investment funds, PPPs and development banks, not open-ended budget support,” he said.

He said the realistic path forward is a mix of humanitarian and early-recovery aid alongside large-scale private and quasi-public investment in infrastructure, energy and productive sectors.

Previous failures of aid-driven reconstruction efforts

Recent cases underscore the limits of rebuilding through aid alone.

“Afghanistan, Iraq and Haiti all received huge volumes of post-conflict or post-disaster assistance, yet ended up with weak institutions, limited diversification and deep dependency once the political or security umbrella shifted and donors’ attention waned,” Feve said.

In most cases, assistance flowed through fragmented projects with limited local ownership, often reinforcing patronage networks rather than building a stable, tax-generating economy.

“For Syria, the lesson is not that aid is useless,” Feve said. “But that unless it is deliberately paired with institution-building and private investment, you can spend tens of billions and still be left with a brittle state and no sustainable growth engine.”

Syrian officials advocate investment over aid

For the first time in years, Syrian policymakers appear aligned around a long-term investment-driven strategy rather than donor dependency.

“We want to rebuild Syria through investment, not through aid and assistance,” President Ahmad al-Sharaa said in late October at the Future Investment Initiative (FII) 2025 conference in Riyadh.

Syria’s investment opportunities are “rich,” he said, and the government is committed to “protecting investors under the law and integrating Syria into the regional and global economy.”

Finance Minister Yisr Barnieh echoed the message. “Reforms are focused on the private sector and investment,” he said. “One day everybody will realize that Syria is a good place to invest.”

Syrian Central Bank Governor Abdulkader al-Husrieh said the country’s new Investment Banks Law is designed to meet reconstruction financing needs and revive the financial sector, including relinking with global payment systems such as SWIFT – steps he said would enhance Syria’s appeal as a “financial hub for reconstruction capital.”

A year of rising investment

Following the fall of the Assad regime in December 2024, Western countries began lifting sanctions and encouraging foreign investment.

Sharaa said Syria attracted $28 billion in the first six months after amendments to investment laws.

In July, Damascus hosted the first Syria-Saudi Investment Forum, yielding 44 deals worth $6 billion. That same month, Syria concluded an $800-million agreement with Dubai Ports World to upgrade port infrastructure and logistics services.

In August, Syria signed $14 billion in memoranda with companies from Qatar, the UAE, Italy and Türkiye. A separate set of energy agreements between Syria and Saudi Arabia followed later that month.

Another $7 billion energy investment deal signed by Turkish, Qatari and US companies in May promises to significantly boost Syria’s electricity supply and improve living conditions for millions.

In one of the largest infrastructure projects in years, a consortium of Turkish, Qatari, US and Syrian partners is undertaking a multi-phase modernization of Damascus International Airport.

The project – estimated at roughly $4 billion – includes new terminals and major rehabilitation works that will raise the airport’s capacity to more than 31 million passengers within a decade.

From aid mindset to investment mindset

Experts say the real indicator of Syria’s economic transition will not be conferences or memoranda of understanding, but structural shifts.

Feve said the shift will be evident when foreign direct investment and project finance outweigh grants, when a credible investment law and trusted regulators are in place, and when budgets allocate domestic resources to attract private capital. UN agencies moving from direct service delivery toward helping de-risk investments would reinforce this trend.

He said early investment is most likely to flow into real estate and urban development in relatively secure cities, construction materials, telecoms and digital infrastructure. As regulatory rules become clearer, energy, logistics and agro-processing sectors could also attract substantial capital.

“Banking and finance can also attract capital once regulatory expectations, sanctions risks and correspondent banking relationships are better defined," he said.

Khurfan cautioned that Syria’s long period under international sanctions has eroded investor confidence, and rebuilding trust will take time.

Still, he said the wave of investment conferences inside Syria – and the memoranda signed during them – represent an initial sign of movement toward an investment-driven approach rather than one centered on aid appeals.

He added that preparing the investment environment is the next crucial step, pointing to amendments to the Investment Law this year as an early example. Further progress, he said, will depend on strengthening regulatory frameworks governing investment and rebuilding capacity in the banking sector.