ISTANBUL

Jair Bolsonaro, once Brazil’s most powerful man, seems headed for political oblivion, banned from office and soon to face trial on some of the most serious criminal charges in the country’s democratic history.

It started with his failed bid for re-election in October 2022, when he narrowly lost the presidential election runoff to his left-wing rival, incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

Bolsonaro never publicly acknowledged the defeat and his voters never accepted it, culminating in thousands of his supporters storming government buildings in the capital, Brasilia, in January 2023.

Along with several co-accused, Bolsonaro now faces charges that include leading an armed criminal organization, attempting a coup, and allegedly plotting to assassinate Lula.

The 70-year-old former army captain rejects the allegations as a politically motivated move to block his return to power. Last June, he was barred from running for office until 2030 for abuse of power and misuse of public media to spread doubts over the credibility of Brazil’s electoral system.

With the former far-right president’s political prospects bleak at best, Brazil’s right wing – particularly the Bolsonaristas – finds itself forced to identify and cultivate new leadership.

Approximately 30% of Brazil’s electorate identifies politically with the right and about 10% specifically support Bolsonaro himself, explains Giovanna Semeraro, a professor at the University of Santo Amaro in Sao Paulo.

“Bolsonaro is a big political actor for the right wing of Brazilian politics, and all of the other political right-wing forces are trying to understand how to behave,” she told Anadolu.

“Everybody is talking about who’s going to be the next Bolsonaro … but there is still no certainty about it.”

Who could replace Bolsonaro?

Despite his legal woes, Bolsonaro’s influence will likely continue to dominate Brazil’s right-wing politics, as among the frontrunners to take over from the ex-president are his wife Michelle and son Eduardo.

Michelle has taken a leading role in Bolsonaro’s far-right Liberal Party and is positioning herself as a candidate for the October 2026 presidential election. A November 2024 poll had her as the leading conservative alternative to Lula, highlighting her potential appeal among Bolsonaro’s base.

Similarly, Eduardo is perceived by many supporters as a natural heir to his father. In March, he took a leave of absence from his congressional role to relocate to the US, saying he intends to seek political asylum there.

He has been using his time there to drum up international support for Bolsonaro’s movement, positioning himself as a key liaison between Brazil’s far-right and figures in US President Donald Trump’s circle.

Outside of the family, Tarcisio de Freitas, governor of Brazil’s biggest state Sao Paulo, is another top candidate. A poll last month showed him overtaking Michelle by a slight margin as the strongest right-wing contender for 2026.

“These three have been proposed, and they are currently being probed, as successors,” Fabiano Belloube, a writer and analyst focused on Latin American affairs, told Anadolu.

“However, none of them has yet managed to achieve the same bond with Bolsonaristas as Bolsonaro himself.”

Other figures in the run are Goias Governor Ronaldo Caiado and Parana Governor Ratinho Junior, who presents himself as a moderate option amid the polarized extremes represented by Lula and Bolsonaro.

Belloube pointed out the uncertainty regarding the direction the Brazilian right will take ahead of the 2026 elections, specifically over whether it gravitates towards a more extreme or a moderate conservative candidate.

“The right still doesn’t know around which person it can coalesce,” he said.

“According to surveys that have been conducted so far, Lula would be strong enough to beat, at least right now, any candidate that the right eventually puts forward.”

Semeraro, however, suggested that Brazil’s current political dynamics reflect more than a simple left-versus-right division.

“It’s a lot about the right-wing reorganizing itself than the left-wing growing necessarily,” she said.

“If the Bolsonaro figure is diminished, it doesn’t necessarily mean that Lula is bigger, because a lot of other right-wing leadership are getting bigger with this.”

First for Brazilian democracy

On the significance of Bolsonaro’s trial, Semeraro emphasized that it marks a momentous event for Brazil’s democracy.

Brazil has a long history with dictatorship and Bolsonaro “represents a part of the population that admired this dictatorship,” she said.

“This is the first time in our history that there is a criminal procedure in order to … hold responsible people who acted against democracy, including the military, and that is very important here,” Semeraro stressed.

“The military here have a history of getting into politics … Now, for the first time, there is an institutional response, so this is very important.”

Discussing the possible fallout of the case, Belloube emphasized that a potential conviction might reinforce narratives of persecution among Bolsonaro’s ardent supporters.

“This will likely instigate Bolsonaro-affiliated movements which are a vocal minority … I would say it would fuel more polarization,” he said.

A conviction, he continued, would also show that democratic institutions in Brazil “were not as strong as previously assumed following the period of authoritarian rule … but at the same time resilient enough.”

“It would show both that the democratic framework is not as strong as previously imagined, but at the same time, as of yet, it is strong and resilient enough to avert potential threats,” said Belloube.