With climate change, areas of Europe hit by wildfire could nearly triple: Study

The area affected by wildfires in Europe could nearly triple by the end of the century under a high-emissions scenario as climate change brings hotter, drier, and windier conditions, according to a study led by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).

Annual burned area could increase by around 39% under a low-emissions scenario and by about 192% under a high-emissions scenario during 2070-2100, compared with the 2000-2030 average.

The study, published in Global Change Biology with contributions from the Frankfurt-based Senckenberg Society for Nature Research, also highlights the importance of emissions cuts and stronger fire prevention, early detection, and firefighting measures.

"Climate change is driving up fire activity across Europe as hot, dry and windy conditions become more severe," said Maik Billing, a researcher at the institute and lead author of the study.

Billing said burned areas could increase widely even under warming of around 1.8C (3.24F), while a rise of roughly 3.6C (6.48F) could make fires much more prevalent, particularly around the Mediterranean and across Western and Central Europe, including areas that have historically experienced fewer fires.

Investment needed to manage rising fire risks

The study found improved fire prevention, early detection, and firefighting could reduce burned areas by 92% under 1.8C warming and by 72% under roughly 3.6C warming, although the authors cautioned that these estimates may be optimistic in a much warmer climate.

"We see fire conditions are increasing, so we need to invest more," said Thomas Hickler, a Senckenberg scientist and co-author of the study.

Hickler said greater investment in firefighter training, equipment, and coordination could make a significant difference, but warned that extremely severe fires could eventually exceed firefighting capacity.

"The recent record fires in France clearly show that we cannot simply extrapolate from the experiences of the past," he said.

Europe faces severe wildfire season

The findings come amid another severe wildfire season in Europe. Around 550,000 hectares had burned across the European Union as of Aug. 12, about 2.5 times the 20-year average for this point in the year, according to the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS).

"The fires in France, Spain and Greece show how quickly hot, dry and windy weather conditions can stretch firefighters and their resources," said Kirsten Thonicke, a scientist at the Potsdam Institute and co-author of the study.

Thonicke said climate change could push fire conditions beyond the limits of existing prevention and firefighting capabilities, making emissions reductions essential alongside stronger local fire management.