By Ahmet Gurhan Kartal
LONDON
The uncertainty surrounding the divorce case between the U.K. and the EU is continuing as a crucial stage has been reached in making the long-awaited Brexit deal between the two parties.
As a draft deal was announced last week, and after British Prime Minister Theresa May received approval from her Cabinet with a majority of votes, delivering the clarity everyone had hoped for after more than two years since the June 2016 referendum and 18 months since the triggering of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty in March 2017, there remains a bigger uncertainty about what will happen next in terms of Brexit.
After receiving a big blow with the resignations of her Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab and Work and Pensions Secretary Esther McVey last week – both stepping down saying that they could not support the deal reached – May stood defiant and stressed that she was “determined” to see the deal through.
However, as the complexity of the whole Brexit affair remains in place for now and May is traveling to Brussels on Wednesday to meet European Commission President Jean Claude-Juncker in a bid to polish up a Political Declaration – a separate text that would lay the foundations of future relations between the U.K. and EU –voices against the deal have grown stronger by the hour.
Objections from EU states
Among EU states, Spain and France have so far have voiced their concerns about the final deal, both demanding alterations to the draft text.
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said on Wednesday that they would reject the draft Brexit withdrawal deal if there is no clarification on the future of Gibraltar – a British overseas territory.
Gibraltar, with a population of around 30,000, was ceded to Britain by Spain under the 1713 Treaty of Utrecht, but Spanish claims over the region continued. In referenda in 1967 and 2002, the Gibraltarian public widely rejected proposals for it to be governed by Madrid.
Spain is demanding that future EU talks with the U.K. do not cover Gibraltar, and it wants to have the final say over any future arrangements in that regard.
"As things stand today, if there are no changes regarding Gibraltar, Spain will vote no on Brexit," said Sanchez.
France, on the other hand, is pushing the U.K. to incorporate future European climate change directives.
France, Spain, Belgium, Denmark and Portugal have also voiced their concern that the draft withdrawal agreement fails to address the subject of fishing rights in waters surrounding the U.K.
Tory rebels and vote of confidence
Following the resignations last week and a statement by May in the House of Commons defending the deal, Conservative MP Jacob Rees-Mogg sent a letter of no confidence in the prime minister to the Conservative Party’s 1922 Committee.
Speaking to the press, Rees-Mogg said the government should go back to Brussels and tell them that the U.K. will leave without a deal, and trade under the terms of the World Trade Organization.
In a bid to gather more letters, members of the European Research Group (ERG), which Rees-Mogg leads, held a press conference to explain that a “no deal” Brexit would not harm the country and the current deal should not be accepted.
A vote to challenge May’s leadership would need at least 48 letters in total before such a vote can be initiated. The number reached 27 on Monday, according to local media reports.
DUP unhappy
Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) – the de facto governance partner of the Conservative government due to a “confidence and supply” deal struck last year after May lost the parliament majority in a snap election – is among those who are not happy with the current withdrawal agreement.
Having already declared that they would vote against the agreement in a House of Commons vote, the DUP says it will not allow the agreement due to the backstop clause, which would keep Northern Ireland aligned with the EU in terms of a customs union and single market should a solution to avoid the return of a hard border with the Republic of Ireland at the end of the transition period not be found – another point of debate, as it could be extended beyond the end of 2020, under the agreement.
On Monday evening some of the 10 DUP MPs abstained from a parliament vote on a financial bill, sending a strong signal to May that the Tories cannot survive in the House of Commons without their votes.
The DUP has argued that no deal should carve up the U.K. region from the rest of the U.K. under any deal with the EU.
Meaningful vote
The members of the House of Commons will have a “meaningful” vote on the withdrawal agreement should May’s government survive and manage to bring it back to London after an emergency Brexit summit set to start on Sunday.
However, a parliamentary green light to the deal looks very unlikely, as the Labour Party and the Scottish National Party (SNP) have already made clear that they would vote against it.
Parliament vote-counters signal that it would be a miracle if May could manage to receive a go-ahead from British lawmakers, especially when the opposition MPs are joined by the 10 DUP MPs and Brexiteer Tories to vote against the deal.
A failure in this particular vote could also re-trigger a challenge to May’s leadership, according to political commentators and the local media.
People’s vote?
What happens if May fails to gather enough votes for the withdrawal agreement is of course a matter of speculation for now; however, the number of politicians calling for a “people’s vote” or referendum on the rift issue of Brexit is growing stronger.
A number of MPs both from the leading Conservative Party and the opposition parties argue that British voters should go back to the polls to vote on the options of going ahead with the current deal, leaving the EU with no deal, or even remaining in the EU.
Proposed deal
Under the proposed deal, the EU accepted the idea of a whole-U.K. customs union with the bloc, in a major concession to please U.K. demands to protect its territorial integrity.
A previous EU version of the backstop would keep Northern Ireland anchored in the EU single market and customs union until a solution is found on the border issue on the island of Ireland.
In return, Britain is to agree that it will not be allowed to exit the backstop unless and until the EU is convinced that there is no prospect of a return to a hard border.
The EU has set Nov. 25 as the date of an emergency Brexit summit in Brussels.
Following the summit, the final deal will face a vote in the House of Commons.
The U.K. is set to leave the EU in March 2019.
