Karim El-Bar
11 December 2019•Update: 12 December 2019
LONDON
A leading poll Wednesday, one day before British elections, predicted a small Conservative majority but also could not rule out the possibility of a hung parliament.
YouGov’s MRP poll showed the ruling center-right Conservatives – who have led throughout the election – losing ground to the opposition, center-left Labour Party.
Their poll projected the Conservatives winning 339 seats with 43% of the national vote. There are 650 seats up for grabs in the election, meaning 326 seats are needed to form a majority government.
If the poll proves accurate, the Conservatives would have a small majority of 28, down from 68 just two weeks ago.
Labour have 34% of the vote and are projected to win 231 seats, according to the poll.
YouGov’s MRP poll was one of very few to accurately predict the results of the June 2017 election.
No other party in parliament supports the Conservatives’ Brexit plan, meaning the party needs a majority in order to carry out their campaign motto “Get Brexit done.”
The Brexit Party’s decision to stand down in seats won by the Conservatives in the last election, and the Lib Dems’ underwhelming campaign, have both boosted the two major parties in the polls.
YouGov said of the poll: “Like all predictions our model comes with some uncertainty, and the margin of error here could put the final number of Conservative seats from 311 to 367. This means that we absolutely cannot rule out the 2019 election producing a hung Parliament — nor can we rule out a larger Conservative majority.”
This huge variability will be further exacerbated by expected significant levels of tactical voting on a seat-by-seat basis by pro-Remain British citizens determined to deny the Conservatives a majority.
The U.K. is due to go to the polls this Thursday.
