• ‘France is now taking action, like many other countries, in response to the atrocities committed by the Israeli army in the Gaza Strip,’ says Valerie Stiegler of the University of Paris I

• Civilian toll and starvation are ‘creating a movement of public opinion everywhere in Europe, and it’s difficult for governments not to react to that,’ says Christian Lequesne of Sciences Po Strasbourg

ISTANBUL

With Israel expanding its devastating war on Gaza and pushing for reoccupation as the humanitarian toll mounts, a growing number of European governments are breaking from decades of caution to signal recognition of Palestinian statehood.

France, the UK, and Portugal are among the latest to declare plans to extend recognition during the UN General Assembly in September, a move experts say is driven by shifting geopolitics, surging public outrage, and disillusionment with US-led diplomacy.

The wave of announcements reflects a wider recalibration in Europe’s approach to the Middle East, where support for the two-state solution is colliding with the political realities of Israel’s ongoing military campaign in Gaza. French President Emmanuel Macron set the tone in July, telling the world: “Faithful to its historic commitment to a just and lasting peace in the Middle East, I have decided that France will recognize the State of Palestine.”

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer quickly followed, pledging Britain would act unless Israel takes “substantive steps to end the appalling situation in Gaza.” In Portugal, Prime Minister Luis Montenegro said his government would consult parties and stakeholders on recognition.

Their moves add to momentum generated in the past year by Norway, Ireland, Spain, and Slovenia – all of which have formally recognized Palestine – and signal that long-time backers of Israel are reassessing their positions.

Analysts say the harrowing nature of Israel’s military assault, now in its 22nd month, has been the single biggest driver of this shift.

“France is now taking action, like many other countries, in response to the atrocities committed by the Israeli army in the Gaza Strip. Images of the population affected by famine due to the blockade are having a significant impact on public opinion,” Valerie Stiegler of the University of Paris I told Anadolu.

Stiegler noted that France’s recognition decision is “obviously a symbolic gesture” but one consistent with its diplomatic tradition and intended to keep alive the two-state solution, which she says is “under threat” as Israel openly signals an intent to wipe out Gaza.

Christian Lequesne of Sciences Po Strasbourg agreed, saying the civilian toll and starvation are “creating a movement of public opinion everywhere in Europe, and it’s difficult for governments not to react to that.”

Some observers, Stiegler added, see the recognition push as a substitute for more robust EU-level action, noting the bloc’s refusal to suspend its association agreement with Israel.

Europe trying to step up as US stalls?

Experts say European leaders such as Macron believe the negotiations on a Gaza ceasefire remain deadlocked under US President Donald Trump, and are seeking to fill the diplomatic vacuum.

“French authorities have seized the opportunity by seeking to promote a more measured diplomatic solution, while Trump’s US is unable to end the war and appears increasingly aligned with the Israeli position,” Stiegler said.

Paris, she added, wants to create a “ripple effect” in response to the “persistent failure” of negotiations under US leadership, presenting “a ‘third way’ in order to present an alternative to US policy.”

Lequesne described Europe’s recognition drive as a form of “indirect pressure” on Washington.

“This is why Macron decided to recognize Palestine, because he wants to keep this … diplomatic perspective,” he said, adding that Europe has little confidence in the Trump administration’s approach.

On whether economics factored into the timing, Lequesne said the impetus is primarily political, though any long-term settlement will require engaging Middle Eastern powers.

“It would be a total mistake to consider that just Europe and the United States could solve the situation,” he said, noting that regional actors must be part of the solution.

What recognition could mean

For Lequesne, the recognition push aims to preserve the possibility of a political settlement, but Europe cannot achieve this alone. “Europe is too weak to do that alone. That’s the issue,” he said, adding that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would only listen to Trump.

“If Trump said something to Netanyahu, then it could change,” he noted, but divisions within Europe persist over how far to push the US.

Some advocate stronger pressure, while others want to avoid straining ties needed for cooperation on Ukraine, especially with reduced US aid there, he explained.

At its core, Lequesne said, the recognition move is about keeping the two-state solution on the table – and the involvement of G7 nations such as France and the UK could “introduce more credibility” to that goal.

However, he warned that Europe’s fragmented approach undermines its influence. “I’m sad to say that if Europe would be more united, Europe could have a stronger voice in diplomacy. But that’s not exactly what I’m observing currently,” he said.