- Geopolitical developments have led to a reassessment in Germany on strategic issues and future relations with Türkiye, says expert
- Scholz’s coalition government has moved from a ‘more critical’ stance to ‘more strategic handling of the relationship,’ says Lange
BERLIN
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is seeking better ties with Türkiye, and his visit to Istanbul on Saturday will provide an opportunity to address political differences and enhance cooperation on shared interests, according to a prominent foreign policy expert.
Nils Lange, a non-resident fellow at the Berlin-based Global Public Policy Institute (GPPi), told Anadolu that “addressing irregular migration, economic relations, security and defense cooperation” will be among the key topics on the agenda during Chancellor Scholz’s visit.
“Despite political differences between the two sides on several issues, Chancellor Scholz is recognizing the strategic importance of Türkiye, he is trying to de-emotionalize the relationship, enhance cooperation through a more transactional policy,” he said.
“There have been a number of challenges in the relations between Türkiye and Germany in the past. Given the close ties between the two countries and the complex dynamics between their populations, foreign relations have also always been a matter of domestic policy, which has occasionally led to tensions.
“However, in recent years, there has been a notable shift in the way the German government is approaching Türkiye. While Scholz’s coalition government initially appeared to adopt a more critical stance than its predecessor, recent years have seen a notable shift towards a more strategic approach to the relationship, with a growing recognition of Türkiye’s importance for Europe,” he stressed.
Türkiye’s growing regional role
A few weeks before Scholz’s planned visit to Istanbul, the German government disclosed it had finally approved the sale of nearly €336 million ($369 million) worth of weapons and military equipment to Türkiye.
They were blocked in the past years by the Greens, Chancellor Scholz’s coalition partner, due to domestic political pressures and different views on foreign policy.
Lange said recent geopolitical shifts, including escalating European security concerns due to the Russia-Ukraine war and ongoing tensions in the Middle East, have prompted Germany to reassess its foreign and security policy.
This reassessment, he said, has led to a renewed focus on Germany’s relationship with Ankara, recognizing Türkiye’s crucial role in addressing these complex regional challenges.
“Türkiye is extremely important for Germany, not only as the most important ally at the Black Sea and the southeastern flank of NATO, but also in the way that Ankara is approaching the Russia-Ukraine conflict,” he said.
“Türkiye has been a fierce supporter of Ukraine from the beginning of the war, basically since the annexation of Crimea, but it also kept ties and channels open with Russia. Türkiye has demonstrated that it can play a facilitator role for a diplomatic solution, as we have seen especially at the beginning of the war in the form of prisoner exchanges and in keeping the grain corridor open.”
But he also pointed out that political differences on a number of topics remain, as Germany, an EU member, often sides with Greece and the Greek Cypriot administration in their disputes with Türkiye.
Contrary to Türkiye’s severe criticism of the Netanyahu government over its war in Gaza, Germany remains a strong supporter of Israel.
Scholz had repeatedly said his government bears special responsibility for Israel’s security due to the country’s Nazi past and crimes committed against Jews during World War II.
Addressing irregular migration
According to Lange, while global and regional matters will be high on the agenda, another key topic for the German side will be the pressing issue of irregular migration.
He pointed out that the issue has gained significant importance for the German coalition government recently, particularly in light of the parliamentary elections next year.
Scholz’s left-liberal coalition government has come under growing pressure to address irregular migration after the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party won the most votes in regional elections in eastern German states last month.
“The EU-Türkiye agreement in 2016 to stem irregular migration was effective and successful. Türkiye has shown itself as a reliable partner in addressing this common challenge. But this agreement needs to be renewed and updated,” Lange said.
According to German diplomatic sources, Scholz will seek to address Ankara’s expectations for better cooperation in stemming irregular migration.
German media reported that Scholz will also be looking for better cooperation with Ankara to enable the return of rejected asylum seekers and migrants to their home countries.
Türkiye has repeatedly criticized its EU partners for not honoring their commitments under the 2016 migration deal, and not providing sufficient funds for more than 3 million Syrian refugees accommodated in the country.
As part of the deal, the EU had promised to accelerate Türkiye’s accession process, start negotiations on modernizing the Customs Union, and provide visa-free travel for Turkish nationals within the Schengen area.
“The recent regional elections have shown that irregular migration is perceived as the most important problem by many voters. And to solve this problem, Türkiye is one of the key countries for the German government,” Lange said.
“I think that Türkiye expects from Germany, as the largest and most influential member of the EU, to use its influence within the bloc to enhance relations with the country. This includes boosting economic and trade ties, modernization of the customs union, and visa liberalization.
“Ankara also expects from its NATO ally Germany to end restrictions on weapons sales to Türkiye, promote cooperation among defense industries. And the Turkish side is always raising the issue of the fight against terrorism. It wants Germany to do more and support Türkiye’s fight against terrorism,” he added.
