ATHENS

As Poland prepares for Sunday’s presidential runoff between liberal Rafal Trzaskowski and conservative Karol Nawrocki, analysts say the outcome of the high-stakes battle could alter the country’s trajectory on domestic governance, European integration, and its role in regional security.

Trzaskowski, the mayor of the capital Warsaw backed by Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s centrist Civic Platform party, advocates for pro-European policies, judicial reforms, and progressive stances on social issues.

Nawrocki, who is supported by the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party, champions nationalist values, traditionalism, and a cautious approach to EU integration.

With the Polish presidency wielding significant veto powers, the election outcome will either empower Tusk’s pro-European government to implement long-awaited judicial and institutional reforms, or block those efforts for years to come.

Polls suggest a razor-thin margin between the two candidates, with the vote likely hinging on undecided voters and turnout in both rural and urban areas.

“If Trzaskowski wins, reforms can proceed. If Nawrocki wins, he is likely to veto reform legislation or delay it indefinitely … as incumbent President Andrzej Duda has done,” said Anna Grzymala-Busse, professor of international studies at Stanford University.

On foreign policy, she said the result is unlikely to drastically alter Poland’s path.

“While the candidates differ on the EU, their views on Ukraine align. These differences may not translate into policy changes: the current president, affiliated with PiS like Nawrocki, has been unable to shift the government’s pro-EU stance,” she added.

Polarized electorate and diverging visions

Bartosz Rydlinski, assistant professor of political science at the Cardinal Stefan Wyszynski University in Warsaw, described the race as a reflection of Poland’s underlying economic and cultural fault lines.

Trzaskowski draws support primarily from residents of larger cities and western Poland, who have benefited from the economic growth of the past three decades, he said.

Nawrocki, on the other hand, represents those who have faced economic and social challenges during the same period, as well as a more conservative and deeply religious segment of society, according to Rydlinski.

The May 18 first round highlighted these divisions: Trzaskowski finished narrowly ahead with 31.36% of the vote, followed by Nawrocki at 29.54%.

“Based on the first round’s results, a fierce battle for every vote is expected,” Rydlinski noted, adding that “intense media attacks by the candidates could tip the balance in the final stretch.”

Security, Ukraine, and transatlantic relations

Both candidates share common ground on bolstering the military capacity of Poland, a NATO front-line state bordering Ukraine and Belarus.

Security is the “final factor influencing Poles’ decisions,” particularly in the aftermath of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, Rydlinski said.

“Nawrocki recently met with Donald Trump, viewing the US as the primary guarantor against Russian aggression. Trzaskowski seeks a balance between the US and the EU, recognizing Europe’s role in building Poland’s political and military security,” he explained.

Trzaskowski has also reaffirmed his support for Ukraine’s NATO membership, while making clear that he would not send Polish troops to Ukraine.

Nawrocki similarly supports defense spending hikes but diverges on many other international issues, including rejecting the EU’s Green Deal and the bloc’s Migration Pact.

“Nawrocki also promises to restore border controls with Germany to curb migration, views the EU as an extreme left-wing concept, and seeks to distance Poland from the EU’s climate policies,” Rydlinski said.

“He represents a Polish version of Trumpism, though it is the government, not the president, that conducts European policy.”

This alignment with US conservatives was further reinforced when US Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem endorsed Nawrocki at the Conservative Political Action Conference held this week in Poland.

“I just had the opportunity to meet with Karol, and listen, he needs to be the next president of Poland,” Noem said at the event, criticizing Trzaskowski as an “absolute train wreck of a leader” and saying that “socialists and people that are just like this mayor out of Warsaw … have destroyed our countries.”

A contest of personalities as much as policy

Stuart Dowell, a political analyst for Polish public broadcaster TVP, emphasized that presidential elections in the country “are as much about personality as policy.”

“Trzaskowski appears safe, pro-European, and competent. Nawrocki positions himself as a fighter: nationalist, anti-elite, and defiant. His base sees him as someone who won’t bow to Brussels or the liberal mainstream,” he said.

Dowell noted that Trzaskowski currently holds a narrow lead in polls, boosted by support from the diaspora and liberal-leaning voters.

“But Nawrocki’s support remains steady despite negative headlines. If urban turnout drops or PiS mobilizes effectively in rural areas, the race could flip. Trzaskowski’s campaign has gained momentum recently, but it hasn’t shifted the polls significantly,” he explained.

While foreign policy alignment on Ukraine is expected to continue regardless of the winner, Dowell cautioned that the presidency’s veto power could bring either political stalemate or legislative progress.

A Nawrocki victory, he said, would likely stall much of Tusk’s reform agenda.

“Internationally, it would signal that Poland’s nationalist right remains a potent force, potentially complicating EU coordination on issues from climate to Ukraine. While not a complete reversal, it would drag Poland back into political trench warfare.”