ISTANBUL

The German insurance firm Allianz Trade announced Tuesday that it expects insolvencies in Germany to climb 11% year-on-year in 2025 due to tariff uncertainty and a bleak economic outlook.

The figure was revised up from the previous forecast in March 2025 of a 10% increase in the cases.

The total number of insolvencies in Germany is expected to rise to 24,400 this year, according to a statement by Allianz Trade.

A further increase of 3% is expected next year, reaching 25,050 cases.

"However, it is not just the overall figures that are currently causing concern, but also the persistently high number of large-scale insolvencies, which are causing particularly significant damage to the companies affected," it said.

In the first quarter, the total number of large insolvencies globally rose to 122, more than one large bankruptcy per day and a year-on-year increase of 14%.

"Western Europe was once again at the epicenter of large insolvencies, with an increase of 16% to 74 cases (Q1 2024: 64 cases). This corresponds to 61% of all large insolvencies worldwide in the first quarter," the statement noted.

Germany saw 16 cases, around 13% of the global insolvencies in the first quarter. "This continues the trend of numerous large-scale insolvencies from last year: In 2024, 469 large companies worldwide went bankrupt, with cumulative revenues of €185 billion (approximately $210.7 billion)."

Commenting on the data, Milo Bogaerts, the CEO of Allianz Trade in Germany, Austria, and Switzerland, said: "Last year marked a negative record for major insolvencies in Germany."

"In total, there were 87 major insolvencies in 2024, with cumulative revenue of €17.4 billion. This represents a 36% increase in the number of cases compared to the previous year (2023: 64 cases) and a 55% increase in total revenue. 2025 will not bring any respite either," he noted.

Bogaerts emphasized that they expect to see a continued high number of large-scale insolvencies and thus significant losses in 2025 due to the bleak economic outlook both in Germany and in global trade, and the many uncertainties caused by the "customs storm."