Melike Pala
06 March 2026•Update: 07 March 2026
BRUSSELS
Global oil markets are facing a logistical disruption rather than a production shortage amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, according to Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Speaking to Turkish journalists, including Anadolu, in Brussels following meetings with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and commissioners on Friday, Birol said the world currently has ample oil supplies but faces challenges in transporting it due to disruptions in key maritime routes.
"Here we are facing a logistical problem, not a production problem," Birol stressed.
He noted that several Middle Eastern producers involved in the ongoing regional conflict, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Iran, together account for roughly one-third of global oil production, producing about 30 million barrels per day.
However, after US and Israeli strikes on Iran, maritime transport through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman that typically carries around 20% of global oil and gas shipments, was disrupted.
'All options are on the table'
Birol said the IEA maintains significant oil reserves that could be released if necessary to stabilize markets.
"We at the International Energy Agency have very large oil stocks. When natural disasters or political tensions occur, we can release these stocks into the markets when necessary to ease the situation... All options are on the table, but at the moment there is no such decision," he explained.
He noted that the agency recently convened an extraordinary meeting of its member governments to assess the evolving situation but has not yet decided to release reserves.
Regional producers are also working to mitigate transport disruptions by developing alternative export routes, he added.
"To solve this problem, many countries in the region, Saudi Arabia included, are trying to produce various alternatives," Birol said.
Among those options is transporting oil across Saudi Arabia via pipelines from east to west, allowing exports to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.
Saudi Arabia is also expected to release oil from storage facilities it holds in other producing countries to maintain supply to global markets, he added.
"This is a situation that can change at any moment; everything depends on how events develop," Birol said.
Dependency on Russia
Birol also addressed Europe's energy strategy and dependence on Russian gas, arguing that returning to Russian imports would not be advisable.
"It would not be the right decision," he said, noting that Europe's dependence on Russia began after the oil crisis of the 1970s, when countries sought to reduce reliance on the Middle East.
"Setting aside the political aspect, there will be a transformational change in natural gas markets. This will affect geopolitics, the economy, and energy. Within the next four or five years, a large amount of LNG (liquefied natural gas) will enter the market," he explained.
He said the influx of LNG would shift from a seller’s to a buyer’s market, putting downward pressure on prices.
