French auditors sound alarm over plummeting birth rates

ISTANBUL

France's Court of Auditors (Cour des comptes) sounded alarm on Tuesday over falling birth rates, referring to a “demographic tipping point" that could have serious consequences for already fragile public finances.

French auditors have urged public authorities to address a looming “demographic tipping point,” warning that falling birth rates combined with an ageing population will widen the gap between public revenues and expenditures, according to a report seen by broadcaster BFMTV.

Since January, cumulative births in France are said to have fallen by 2.3% compared to 2024, along with a fertility rate standing at 1.62 children per woman last year, which is considered to be its lowest level since the end of the First World War.

Auditors warned that the combination of an ageing population and falling birth rates will shrink the proportion of people of working age, which is expected to drop to 50% by 2070, down from 55.3% in 2023 — a trend they called “inevitable, even though strong immigration could help offset its impact.”

"The size of the working-age population is a primary factor in the erosion of tax and social-security revenues. Since the employed population determines the wealth produced, its relative decline mechanically leads to lower public revenues," they added.

Auditors underscored that social protection will be the first to feel the impact, as it is primarily financed by workers through contributions on labor income.

They also warned that public spending could rise to 60.8% of GDP by 2070, up from 57% today, if per-capita spending by age group remains unchanged.

Conversely, to maintain the ratio at 57%, per-capita public spending would need to be reduced by as much as 6.1% by 2070.