- As of now, 11 EU member states recognize State of Palestine, with France's upcoming recognition, that number is set to rise to 12 out of 27

- Paris, with future recognition, becoming 1st G7 country and 1st permanent UN Security Council member to endorse Palestinian statehood

- It is expected to influence undecided capitals, particularly in central, and western Europe, countries like Belgium, Malta, Luxembourg

ISTANBUL

A major shift is underway in European diplomacy as France prepares to officially recognize the State of Palestine this September, joining a growing bloc of countries across the continent.

In less than a year, four European countries -- Norway, Ireland, Spain, and Slovenia -- have formally recognized the Palestinian State.

France's upcoming declaration is expected to accelerate the momentum significantly, becoming the first G7 country and first permanent UN Security Council member to endorse Palestinian statehood.

While support of Palestine within the EU is not new, the political geography of recognition has changed.

As of now, 11 European Union member states recognize the State of Palestine. With France's upcoming recognition, that number is set to rise to 12 out of 27 members.

A core group of Eastern European countries, including Poland, Hungary, Romania, Slovakia, Bulgaria, and Greek Cyprus, recognized Palestine as early as 1988.

Recognition by Sweden in 2014 marked the first shift within Western and Northern Europe in recent history. However, it remained an isolated case for nearly a decade, facing diplomatic backlash from Israel as well as major European countries.

The deadlock broke after October 7, 2023, and as Israel continued its intensified strikes and its genocidal war, European governments began to reassess the costs of diplomatic inaction.

Amid mounting public pressure and accusations of complicity in Israel’s actions, several European countries took steps to recognize the State of Palestine in a bid to distance themselves from the deteriorating status quo.

Who has and who could recognize Palestine?

In May 2024, Spain, Ireland, and Norway formally recognized Palestine in a coordinated move to refocus attention on efforts to find a political solution to the war in the Middle East.

They said they hope this joint move will encourage other European countries to follow suit.

Slovenia followed one month later with its own recognition, becoming the fourth European country to do so since the start of the war.

In a recent move, French President Emmanuel Macron announced his decision to recognize Palestine, which gives the move new diplomatic weight.

But Macron's announcement does not come out of nowhere. It follows on from France's previous positions on the issue, with Paris favoring a two-state solution, but only Israel's is currently recognized.

Since Oct. 7, 2023, Macron has condemned the attacks on Gaza while defending Israel’s right to self-defense.

However, as civilian casualties in Gaza mounted and complicity accusations grew, France began calling for an immediate ceasefire.

Paris even increased pressure on Israel diplomatically, suspending its participation in international defense expos.

Still, as a central power in Europe, a founding member of the EU, and a veto-wielding Security Council state, Paris aims to use the recognition to distance itself from Israeli actions in Palestine and counter growing accusations of complicity.

Its declaration is expected to influence undecided capitals, particularly in central and western Europe, where countries like Belgium, Malta, and Luxembourg are weighing similar moves.

If Belgium, Malta and Luxembourg follow through, more than half of the EU's 27 member states will have recognized the State of Palestine.

Of the 193 UN member states, at least 142 currently recognize or have declared their intention to recognize the State of Palestine, making France the 143rd nation to do so.

However, several influential Western nations, including the US, the UK, and Germany, continue to withhold recognition.

Which European countries remain opposed or abstain?

The post-Oct. 7 wave of recognition has exposed deep divisions within the EU.

While a growing number of European states advocate for unilateral recognition as a way to preserve the 2-state solution, others -- notably Germany, Austria, the Netherlands, and Italy -- remain resistant.

Germany, Europe’s largest economy and second-largest UNRWA donor, has doubled down on its opposition to recognition, even as its Baltic and Central European allies remain silent or cautiously supportive.

Chancellor Friedrich Merz, leading a conservative coalition, has categorically rejected unilateral recognition, framing it as a threat to Israeli security and a potential reward for Hamas.

As of now, the UK does not formally recognize the Palestinian State, but continues to support a two-state solution.

However, recently, Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s government has signaled openness to recognition “at the right time” as part of a negotiated peace process.

While Austria supports the Palestinian people and emphasizes international law, Chancellor Christian Stocker has not committed to recognizing Palestine as a state.

It maintains a pro-Israel stance and has voiced concern that recognizing Palestine outside of negotiations would legitimize non-state armed groups and destabilize the region further.

The Netherlands has taken a somewhat more nuanced but still cautious position.

While the Dutch government summoned Israel’s ambassador over the killing of aid workers in Gaza in early 2024 and has tightened arms export controls, it has stopped short of endorsing recognition.

Italy, led by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, has also resisted pressure to recognize Palestine.

Her far-right government has aligned itself closely with the US and Israel, often echoing Washington’s position that Palestinian statehood must be the result of negotiations.

Even the Italian foreign minister said: “Today it is impossible for us to recognize Palestine because Palestine doesn’t exist.”

What comes next?

With the UN General Assembly in September looming, France’s recognition is expected to bring fresh energy to stalled multilateral efforts to revive the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.

Such a decision would also allow Palestine to open an embassy in France.

Nevertheless, recognition alone will not change the situation in Gaza or the West Bank, but it may carry legal, political and diplomatic consequences.

It opens the door for embassies, bilateral agreements, and increased engagement with Palestinian institutions.

For Israel, the wave of recognitions deepens diplomatic isolation.

The Israeli government has recalled ambassadors, imposed retaliatory restrictions, and condemned the moves as support for terrorism. But the narrative is losing traction in key Western capitals.