Erbil Basay
17 July 2024•Update: 23 July 2024
BERLIN
Ulrich Battis, a constitutional law expert and far-right specialist at Berlin Humboldt University, has warned that ignoring public concerns about the refugee crisis is leading to increased support for far-right and populist parties in Europe.
Recent European Parliament (EP) elections in early June saw far-right parties gain votes across multiple countries, while ruling parties experienced losses.
Battis commented on the rise of far-right sentiment in Europe and Germany to an Anadolu correspondent.
Public reflects concerns in election results
Battis explained that the electorate in all EU member states has expressed concerns over the rising number of refugees through their voting behavior. He noted, however, that describing this shift as a move towards the right may be inaccurate.
Battis pointed out that parties supporting the previous European Commission have maintained a majority to form the next Commission. “Overall, I don’t see a major shift post-elections,” he said.
Addressing whether far-right parties will shape EU Parliament activities, Battis said: “I don’t believe they will directly shape proceedings by gaining a majority, though they will undoubtedly impact decision-making mechanism.” He said recent French elections showed other parties tactically uniting, thus limiting far-right influence.
The parties have realized that some issues, such as climate protection, are less important to citizens than others, such as the refugee issue, he noted.
Battis criticized the EU's refugee policy as a "complete disaster," arguing that past decisions have not addressed public concerns, thereby increasing dissatisfaction. He emphasized the importance of listening to the majority’s views on refugee issues.
Highlighting the vote loss of the Green parties in Germany and other European countries, Battis remarked on the necessity for the German government to consider public sentiment to avoid losing future elections.
He emphasized the German government plans to address social issues, such as welfare and child support as it realized it would not be reelected if it continues their ignorance of public demands.
Upcoming elections in eastern Germany
Looking ahead to the state elections in Thuringia, Saxony, and Brandenburg in eastern Germany in September, Battis predicted strong performances for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance for Understanding and Justice which split from the Left Party. Calling these a "dangerous mix," he warned that these elections could significantly shift political dynamics if these parties gain majorities.
"I wouldn't go so far as to say that we are facing a situation like in Germany in 1932-1933, when right-wing and far-left parties had a majority in the parliament. We are not there, but the situation in the three eastern states is dramatic," Battis said.
Lessons from France
Battis assessed the loss of President Emmanuel Macron's majority as a negative development in the French elections. He noted the rise of far-right leader Marine Le Pen, and underlined that although her party secured the most votes it ranked third in the number of seats in parliament, which he said may increase voter dissatisfaction.
Battis concluded that Germany should take note of the need to take public anxieties seriously and respond effectively.
In Germany, the far-right populist AfD party rose to second place with 15.9% in the EP elections held on June 9, increasing its vote share by 4.9 points compared to 2019.
Opinion polls show that only 22% of people in Germany are satisfied with the current government.
* Writing by Yasin Gungor in Istanbul.
