ISTANBUL

Denmark could be hit by severe storm surges every three years if the world fails to meet climate targets, broadcaster DR reported on Friday, citing data from the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI).

Described as “100-year events,” storm surges like the one that struck Denmark in October 2023 could occur every three years within the next 50 years if the world stays on track for a projected global temperature rise of 2.8C (5.04F).

If the Paris Agreement's goal of limiting temperature increases to 1.5 (2.7F) is achieved, the number of severe storm surges in Denmark could decrease to every six years, according to DMI.

"With the Paris Agreement, we will also see increased storm surges. But this is something we can generally handle with various measures," Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, professor of ice, climate and geophysics at the Niels Bohr Institute, told DR.

The DMI data also revealed that Denmark could have more heat waves if the world stays on its current course, with 5 heat wave days per year by the end of this century.

At the same time, the number of frost days is projected to decrease. A temperature increase of 1.5C (the Paris Agreement target) would result in 13 fewer frost days per year, 2.5C in 21 fewer frost days, and 4C in 34 fewer frost days.

"There are bacteria in trees that are dangerous to them. They are killed by frost. So when we no longer have frost, the trees are challenged in a different way," Christensen explained.

In its 16th Emissions Gap Report, UNEP said that if all current national climate plans are fully implemented, global temperatures are projected to rise between 2.3C (4.14F) and 2.5C (4.5F) by the end of the century. Based on existing policies, the increase is estimated at around 2.8C (5.04F).