- Far-right forces ‘will be heard more because they have more seats, so we cannot ignore them,’ says Favero
- In 2025, there will be a higher demand for far-right parties ‘being included in governments or coalitions,’ says University of Groningen’s Favero
ISTANBUL
As Europe navigated a turbulent political landscape in 2024, analysts believe the rise of far-right parties is challenging the traditional political framework and putting the “cordon sanitaire” – a strategy designed to keep them out of power – under unprecedented strain.
Across Europe, there were instances of both outright far-right victories – Austria and Belgium – and growing electoral gains for parties in continental powerhouses such as Germany and France.
In Austria, the far-right Freedom Party (FPO) emerged victorious in September’s parliamentary elections, securing 29% of the vote – the strongest showing for the far right since World War II.
The seismic shift in Austrian politics reflected broader European trends.
Belgium, too, is grappling with the implications of far-right success. The conservative Flemish N-VA party narrowly won the June parliamentary elections, with the far-right Vlaams Belang hot on its heels. Six months later, coalition talks remain deadlocked, underscoring the political instability such electoral shifts can provoke.
France witnessed a resurgence of the far-right National Rally (RN), which secured the most votes in European elections and led the first round of early parliamentary elections. Only a coalition between the left-wing Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) and centrists thwarted RN’s path to power in the decisive second round.
Over in Germany, it was a year of significant gains for the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, as it won a state election for the first time since World War II. Now, with Germany headed to snap polls in late February, the AfD is expected to put up a strong showing that will only further fan fears of its increasing influence.
Elsewhere, figures like Italy’s Giorgia Meloni and Hungary’s Viktor Orban continued to consolidate their roles as far-right torchbearers.
The influence of far-right forces also extended to the European Parliament, where groups such as the Europe of Sovereign Nations, led by the AfD, now holds 25 seats and the Patriots for Europe, headed by Orban’s Fidesz party, has 84 seats.
These electoral advances mean that far-right forces “will have a strong role” going forward in European politics, according to Adrian Favero, an assistant professor of European politics at the University of Groningen.
“We saw an upsurge of these right-wing populist groups, such as the Patriots of Europe … They will be heard more because they have more seats, so we cannot ignore them,” he told Anadolu.
‘Cordon sanitaire’: A waning barrier?
The durability of the cordon sanitaire is now in question.
For decades, this political firewall has kept far-right parties out of governing coalitions, said Favero, but their growing electoral success is making this strategy increasingly difficult to maintain.
“The question is, if they gain more and more ground, how long can these firewalls hold?” he said.
“You will see in 2025 a higher demand of them (far-right parties) being included in governments or coalitions.”
These parties now have concrete evidence of rising support, he added, and they feel emboldened enough to push even harder for inclusion, challenging longstanding political conventions.
Analyzing the reasons for the recent far right’s successes, Favero pointed to their continued reliance on the populist narrative of “the people versus the elite,” which remains a cornerstone of their political strategy.
“There will be a continuing battle of people versus the elite in a very populist manner or against the establishment,” he explained, adding that cultural issues such as immigration and national identity will also remain central to their rhetoric.
In the Netherlands, he added, far-right leader Geert Wilders continues to frame Islam as a threat to national identity, reinforcing his appeal to voters concerned about cultural preservation.
Favero points out that the term “elite” is country-specific but generally refers to ruling parties or governments. For right-wing populists, this elite often encompasses wealthy, educated individuals, or institutions like the EU.
“Populists claim they’re the rightful representatives of the pure, good citizens versus the corrupt elite establishment,” he said.
Social media and the Musk factor
The far right’s electoral success in 2024 is increasingly tied to its adept use of digital platforms and social media.
Figures like Elon Musk have played a pivotal role in reshaping the digital landscape to favor far-right narratives. Musk’s backing of far-right movements in the US and now Europe is ushering in a new era of online political campaigning.
Platforms like X, under Musk’s leadership, have become vital tools for right-wing populists, including US President-elect Donald Trump. The Tesla and SpaceX owner has recently fanned more controversy with statements in support of Germany’s AfD, while also pledging hefty donations for Reform UK, the British party led by far-right figure Nigel Farage.
Favero said the far right’s reliance on social media is a reflection of entrenched grievances over a perceived bias within mainstream media.
“In most countries, for the last decade or so, the right-wing populists complain that the media is … too left and not reporting the right way … What we see now is a reaction,” he said.
In Europe, newer platforms like TikTok are also proving instrumental.
France’s RN leader Jordan Bardella gained significant traction on the platform, leveraging its algorithm to reach younger audiences. Similarly, the AfD capitalized on TikTok’s reach, demonstrating the platform’s growing importance in political campaigning.
“They really figured out how to use the algorithm in their favor,” Favero said.
Normalization of far-right rhetoric
Despite efforts to counteract their rise, the far right’s influence shows no signs of waning. Favero argues that combating this trend requires proactive grassroots engagement and a refusal to normalize far-right rhetoric.
“There are possibilities of how to reduce their influence, but it requires work and it requires effort … Politicians really need to get out there and convince their electorate that they’re the better option,” he said.
He cautions conservative parties against mimicking far-right populists or normalizing far-right rhetoric, noting that voters tend to prefer the original.
The media also plays a critical role in resisting normalization, he said, adding that without concerted efforts to challenge far-right narratives, their presence in European politics will likely continue to grow.
“Unless there is less normalization – the media don’t normalize right-wing populist parties and what they say and do – and more effort at the local level … there will be a further increase of right-wing populist parties in Europe,” said Favero.
Implications for Europe’s future
The far-right’s ascent has profound implications for Europe, particularly in Central and Eastern Europe.
“I believe when we look at the five-year span, Central and Eastern Europe will be in the focus,” Favero predicts.
However, much depends on developments in France and Germany, Europe’s largest and most influential nations, he added.
France has faced political turmoil since June, with President Emmanuel Macron’s bloc faltering and the RN gaining ground in European elections. In Germany, Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition collapsed in November, further destabilizing the political landscape.
“The interplay between national politics and European integration will play a crucial role in determining the region’s future,” said Favero.
Countries like Romania and Moldova are already experiencing the far-right’s growing influence, as domestic challenges intersect with EU-level debates.
Restrictive policies in countries like Poland and Hungary, from tightened abortion laws to media constraints, illustrate the far-right’s potential to reshape regional norms.
“The protection of minority rights could be undermined,” Favero said, adding that Europe must brace for more debates and discussions about its political identity in the years ahead.
