• Public opposition to the UK’s stance on Gaza ‘has gone beyond foreign policy concerns and is now beginning to reshape domestic political dynamics,’ says Galip Dalay, senior consulting fellow at Chatham House

• ‘The UK government is trying to work out a rhetorical response to a series of developments which are complicated,’ says British academic Lawrence Freedman

LONDON

After months of staunch support for Israel, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has opened the door to a shift in the UK’s Middle East policy.

On Tuesday, following an emergency Cabinet meeting, Downing Street confirmed its intention to place the UK on a path to recognizing Palestinian statehood, potentially as early as the UN General Assembly this September.

Starmer’s declaration came with caveats, specifically that the UK could change its mind if Israel agrees to a ceasefire in Gaza, halts the building of illegal settlements in the occupied West Bank, and commits to a two-state solution.

Still, it marks a dramatic pivot that underscores the mounting tension between Britain’s historic Atlanticism and its rapidly shifting domestic political landscape.

Starmer has been facing increasing pressure, including from within Labour’s own ranks, civil society and international rights groups, for his government’s stance, particularly over the starvation and forced famine that Israel has caused in Gaza, killing scores of Palestinians, including dozens of children.

But the move also follows a diplomatic signal from US President Donald Trump, who seemed to give a quiet nod during a recent meeting with Starmer in Scotland. “I’m not going to take a position. I don’t mind him (Starmer) taking a position,” Trump told reporters in Turnberry.

The UK’s announcement follows similar moves by other major Western nations, including France and Canada, with the latter tying it to “the Palestinian Authority’s commitment to much-needed reforms.”

A recent report from two prominent Israeli human rights groups – B’Tselem and Physicians for Human Rights Israel – may have also factored into the UK’s decision, shattering its last wall of plausible deniability.

Their joint finding was that Israel’s ongoing military assault on Gaza constitutes genocide. The groups said they found “deliberate intent by Israeli decision-makers to target the whole population of Gaza,” citing the destruction of life, health infrastructure, and civilian systems.

Domestic and diplomatic recalibration

Galip Dalay, senior consulting fellow at policy think tank Chatham House, sees the Gaza crisis as a pivotal moment for the UK – not merely a foreign policy dilemma but a domestic political inflection point.

“There is a growing sense of public opposition in the UK surrounding the Gaza issue,” Dalay told Anadolu. “This opposition has gone beyond foreign policy concerns and is now beginning to reshape domestic political dynamics.”

Polls confirm his view, as a recent YouGov survey revealed that 25% of former Labour voters who switched to the Green Party in 2024 cited the party’s Gaza stance as their reason.

That electorate may soon have a new home – a new political party led by former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn – and Labour could face the prospect of more lost votes, particularly from younger, justice-oriented, and Muslim voters.

“This new formation would not focus solely on Gaza, but could develop a comprehensive political language that integrates foreign policy with economic and social programs,” said Dalay. “Just as identity-driven rhetoric has enabled certain right-wing movements, this Gaza-centered, left-leaning discourse could generate similar pressure from the opposite end.”

Foreign affairs consultant Ceren Kenar also believes the timing of Starmer’s shift is more than just reactive politics.

It is, she argued, a carefully calibrated diplomatic maneuver that seeks to preempt backlash from Washington, particularly after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio termed France’s recognition announcement “a reckless decision that only serves Hamas propaganda.”

“What is particularly striking is the timing of Starmer’s eventual shift on the issue,” Kenar told Anadolu. “His decision to explore or endorse Palestinian statehood recognition appears to have come shortly after a private meeting with US President Trump during a visit to Scotland.”

Though the full content of the meeting remains undisclosed, Kenar believes it likely served as a quiet briefing: Starmer giving Washington a heads-up, perhaps even gauging tolerance. “Downing Street was keen to manage the diplomatic fallout with Washington in advance,” she added.

‘You can’t push the Palestinian issue away’

Critics of Britain’s recognition plan warn that unless it is followed by concrete action – such as suspending arms sales or imposing sanctions – it may amount to little more than symbolism.

That raises the question of whether this shift would be enough to absolve Britain of complicity or failure in Israel’s war on Gaza, or could the country find itself reckoning with a public inquiry years later, as was the case with Iraq?

Lawrence Freedman, emeritus professor of war studies at King’s College London, believes “the problem with Gaza is very different from the problem of Iraq.”

“The problem of Iraq was that we intervened … We went into a country for a reason which turned out not to be warranted, that we didn’t know when we went in ... Gaza is something else entirely,” he told Anadolu.

“The UK government is trying to work out a rhetorical response to a series of developments which are complicated ... Having lived through seven years of a public inquiry, I don’t believe you should have public inquiries on every issue.”

On the overall crisis in Gaza, Freedman sees a lack of strategic vision, both by Israel and its Western allies.

Israel responded to the Oct. 7 attack “without any clarity about how you sort out Gaza in the future,” he said.

“It still hasn’t got any clarity, so this has produced, in my mind, a poor outcome for Israel and a catastrophic one for the Palestinians,” he continued.

“The failure, I think, of European and American policy goes back some way … The first priority is to work out what the future of Gaza and, for that matter, eventually the West Bank looks like.”

The Israeli government, he argued, is currently “driven by domestic considerations” and has no coherent plan. “It makes difficulties for everybody, and it’s catastrophic.”

The one major obstacle standing in the way of long-term stability, he added, is Israel’s unwillingness to recognize the cost of continued occupation and blockade.

“The tragedy, in a way, is that Israel’s security could look an awful lot better if it just recognized, as many Israelis do recognize, that in the end, you can’t push the Palestinian issue away. It’ll keep on coming back and biting you, and you’ve got to deal with it,” he said.