ANKARA

Tuvalu, a small Pacific island nation with a population of just over 11,000, faces a dire future as rising sea levels threaten to submerge its nine coral atolls until the next century.

Scientists predict that by 2100, 95% of Tuvalu’s land will be underwater during high tide.

This impending crisis could strip Tuvalu of its physical territory, putting its status as a sovereign state at risk under international law, which requires a defined territory for statehood.  

‘Digital Nation’ project

In response to this existential threat, Tuvalu has launched an ambitious initiative called the "Digital Nation" project, aiming to preserve its identity, culture, and governance in the digital realm.

Announced at COP27 in Egypt by Foreign Minister Simon Kofe, the project seeks to create a virtual replica of the islands and archive the nation’s cultural heritage.

"Tuvalu’s spirit will endure," Kofe declared, urging citizens to contribute memories, traditions, and personal artifacts to the digital archive.

The Digital Nation project goes beyond cultural preservation. It includes digitizing official state records, creating virtual passports, and enabling citizens to participate in elections and civil activities from anywhere in the world.

This innovative approach seeks to safeguard Tuvalu’s legal rights and governance structure, even if its physical territory is submerged.  

Risks under international law

However, the loss of territory raises complex legal questions, including the recognition of Tuvalu as a state under international law.

Speaking to Anadolu, Professor Guy S. Goodwin-Gill of Oxford University stated:

"So even though the territory may become increasingly uninhabitable, the people may move to another country.

"I think one has to recognize that it depends upon the acquiescence and the consent of other states how they are treated and how the entity that is Tuvalu continues to exist."

While there is no international legal framework for a "digital nation," Goodwin-Gill noted, "Digitization is becoming increasingly apparent as a form of collective identity. I think we're going to see states increasingly recognize it in various spheres, particularly in regard to the existence of states themselves."

Tuvalu’s challenge has also led to unprecedented international agreements. The Australia-Tuvalu Falepili Union Agreement, signed in 2023, addresses the relocation of Tuvalu’s citizens through a "dignified mobility" clause.

It grants Tuvaluans the opportunity to migrate gradually to Australia, ensuring they retain their dignity and identity.

Despite these measures, concerns remain about maintaining Tuvalu’s sovereignty and self-governance on foreign soil.   

Uncertain Future for Tuvaluans

Goodwin-Gill expressed uncertainty, noting that it is not yet clear how Tuvalu will continue to exist under the laws of another country and government, or how conflicts between the two governments will be resolved.

He emphasized the importance of negotiating legal agreements on issues such as property rights, family law, and healthcare for Tuvaluan citizens in Australia.

Donald Rothwell, a professor of international law at the Australian National University, also highlighted the unique challenges posed by Tuvalu’s situation.

"Traditionally, a reasonably defined territory has been a requirement of recognition as a state, along with a permanent population, a more or less stable government, and a substantial degree of independence," he explained, noting that there is no historical precedent for a state losing its territory solely due to climate change.

Tuvalu’s digitization efforts are a testament to its determination to adapt. Rothwell remarked that digitizing records for a small population like Tuvalu’s is feasible compared to larger nations, and he likened the concept of a digital government to the operations of multinational corporations.

However, he acknowledged they are far from resolving this issue under international law, even for permanent members of the UN Security Council and other states.  

Tuvalu could set precedent

Tuvalu’s plight has drawn attention to the global implications of climate change and rising sea levels.

Goodwin-Gill underscored its potential as a precedent-setting case:

"I think the Australia-Tuvalu agreement is a model which other states might want to adapt."

"New Zealand, for example, has already taken steps to encourage South Pacific migration from various nations.

"Those two countries are leading the way in many respects. They could carry the rest of the world."

As Tuvalu digitizes its existence and negotiates the future of its citizens, the world watches closely.

The nation’s struggle serves as a stark reminder of the urgent need for international collaboration to address the challenges of climate-induced displacement and to support vulnerable nations at the frontlines of the climate crisis.   

*Writing by Gizem Nisa Cebi