• Nations’ production and plans to produce more in next years are increasing instead of going down, SEI’s Annika Markovic tells Anadolu

ISTANBUL 

Fossil fuel production is not aligned with global climate targets, as producing countries continue to expand output instead of reducing it, said Annika Markovic, director of engagement and impact at the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI).

One of the key agenda items at the upcoming UN Climate Change Conference (COP30), to be held Nov. 10-21 in Belem, Brazil, will be the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) that parties to the Paris Agreement must submit by the end of 2025.

Countries are expected in their reports to outline their carbon emission reduction and climate change mitigation targets and measures by 2035. Although the reports, published every five years since 2015, show nations' commitments, recent analyses reveal a significant gap between stated pledges and actual emissions.

The Stockholm Environment Institute’s Production Gap Report 2025 once again revealed a stark discrepancy between countries’ fossil fuel production and the carbon emissions compatible with the Paris Agreement goals.

Markovic told Anadolu that, while countries continue to submit their NDCs to the UN, their efforts remain far from sufficient.

According to the institute’s report, nations are currently producing 120% more fossil fuels than would be consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2030, and 77% more than would be compatible even with a 2-degree scenario.

"We have looked at 20 countries that are the largest producers of fossil fuels, so oil, coal, and gas, and we have looked at their production plans, and we have studied whether they are on track to lower the production of fossil fuels or whether they are increasing. And unfortunately, it's not going in the right direction. It's going in the wrong direction,” Markovic said.

She added that these findings mean that “they are producing, and their plans to produce more in the next years are increasing instead of going down.”

The institute’s 2023 analysis also found that production levels exceeded 1.5-degree targets by 110% and 2-degree targets by 69%.

Markovic noted that SEI has been publishing Production Gap Reports since 2019, and the gap between countries’ stated goals and their actual fossil fuel output has only widened since then.

“What we see as the main challenge is that if you are not to reach the Paris target of 1.5 degrees, or no, even two degrees, you have to start lowering the emissions already very quickly, and if you continue to produce fossil fuels, of course, the emissions are going up, and that means that you have to be even faster in, you know, getting down the emissions later. And this is going to be more difficult,” she added.

While countries are still in the process of updating their NDCs, Markovic said the current level of ambition “is not as we would have liked it to see.”

She noted that China, one of the largest emitters in the world, “was ambitious,” but “we were maybe hoping for a greater ambition.”

High-level participation needed

“This is really the NDCs 10 years after the Paris COP. And I think this is what we need to look closer at, because the whole idea of the Paris Agreement was not to have a top-down target set for, you know, lowering of emissions, but to actually invite all countries to be ambitious and to look at what they can do themselves in order to meet the Paris targets,” Markovic said.

She said the focus should be on raising ambition and ensuring that countries understand that, despite the world’s many challenges and setbacks, “we have to continue to be more ambitious.”

She emphasized that participation at the level of heads of state and government would amplify the conference’s message, noting that leaders can convey the urgency of the issue not only to delegates but to the entire world.

Call for new leaders in climate action

Markovic said new countries must take on leadership roles in global climate action following the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement.

She added that even though state-level engagement with the US remains limited, cooperation with the American private sector and organizations focused on climate action continues.

“I expect the EU to continue to be a leader in this field. And I have really strong hopes that they will manage to get an NDC together and a good message to the climate COP in Belem,” she said.

Markovic also emphasized that Sweden should continue the leadership role it has long played in these negotiations.

“I also have high expectations for Brazil because of the fact that they are hosting this COP and the fact that they have a very ambitious agenda for the COP. I think they can really use their convening power,” she said, adding that China also could assume a stronger leadership role.