• ‘Floods will continue to get worse until we phase out fossil fuels to reach net-zero,’ says John Marsham, Met Office Joint Chair at the University of Leeds
• With changing weather systems and extreme temperatures becoming the norm, ‘we will need to brace ourselves globally for increased flooding,’ warns Carola Koenig of Brunel University

ISTANBUL

From South Asia’s monsoon belts to America’s southern plains, deadly floods are surging with increasing frequency and ferocity, killing hundreds and inflicting billions in losses.

Scientists warn that climate change is intensifying rainfall patterns, transforming what were once “rare disasters” into regular shocks that communities must now brace for every year.

“Even apparently small increases in global temperature dramatically increase the chances of unprecedented heat waves and floods,” John Marsham, Met Office Joint Chair at the University of Leeds, told Anadolu. “We’re now seeing this play out with devastating floods all over the world.”

The disasters of this summer alone underscored this new reality: floods have swept through China, India, Pakistan, South Korea, Yemen, and the US, flattening homes, displacing thousands, and wiping out critical infrastructure.

Who was hardest hit by monsoon deluges?

This summer’s monsoon-related floods have been particularly destructive across Asia.

In northern Pakistan, torrential rains, flash floods and cloudbursts have killed almost 800 people since late June, with more than 460 of the deaths recorded in the space of a few weeks in August.

In neighboring India, a flash flood ripped through the northern state of Uttarakhand in early August. More than 100 people went missing as torrents from the Kheer Ganga river destroyed homes, swept away vehicles, and buried entire villages under mud and rockslides.

In China, at least 22 people were killed and dozens went missing after heavy rains struck Gansu province in August. Just weeks earlier, Beijing recorded some of its heaviest rainfall in decades, killing at least 30 people and forcing tens of thousands to evacuate as floodwaters submerged streets and damaged bridges.

In South Korea, at least 18 people died and over 13,000 were evacuated when record rainfall triggered mudslides, power outages, and transport chaos in late July.

Yemen is another country hit by flash floods, with at least 14 people killed, including several children, since last week.

In South Africa, floods triggered by torrential rains swept through the Eastern Cape province in June, claiming nearly 50 lives.

These disasters are no longer confined to regions traditionally vulnerable to monsoons. In the US state of Texas, flash floods in July killed at least 135 people, including more than 35 children, sweeping through large swaths of the region, including a summer camp for kids.

Why floods are becoming more destructive

Scientists say global warming is amplifying the intensity of rainfall, leading to more destructive events.

“I do think they are increasing, and the reason is that weather patterns are changing as a result of a warmer climate,” said Carola Koenig, a reader at the College of Engineering, Design and Physical Sciences at Brunel University of London.

According to the UN, floods account for up to 40% of all weather-related disasters. Between 1970 and 2019, water-related hazards caused half of all disasters and nearly half of all reported deaths. Since 2000, the number of recorded flood disasters has increased by 134% compared to the two decades before.

Koenig explained that the number of cyclones and hurricanes has not necessarily increased, but their ferocity has, because they have more energy and can bring more rain.

Events that once might have been minor now carry far greater destructive power, she said.

Among the most lethal events are flash floods, which develop with little warning.

“Flash floods occur when intense rain falls in a place where the runoff can rapidly lead to flooding,” Marsham explained. “They are enhanced where rain cannot soak into the ground, including when the ground has been baked hard in a drought.”

Koenig noted that geography often compounds the risk, as many affected regions are mountainous or hilly, where rain funnels quickly into valleys.

“Entire villages can be rolled over by these sudden torrents, as we’ve seen in Pakistan and India,” she said.

She added that glacier melt further amplifies the danger, as heavy summer rains combined with thawing snow create muddy flash flood streams that are particularly devastating.

Which areas are most vulnerable?

Experts are clear: the rise in global flooding is directly linked to climate change.

“Climate change, driven by the continued burning of fossil fuels, doesn’t just increase heat waves, it also increases the intensity of rainfall,” Marsham said. “Floods will continue to get worse until we phase out fossil fuels to reach net-zero.”

Koenig warned that record-breaking temperatures in Europe and elsewhere also destabilize weather systems.

Phenomena such as heat domes lock systems in place, producing extremes like 45C (113F) in Spain, she said, emphasizing that unless CO2 emissions are drastically curbed, the risks will keep rising.

While no region is immune, certain areas are more exposed to the impact of climate-driven floods and other disasters.

Countries with dense river systems – South and Southeast Asia, Pakistan, India, and parts of China – are particularly at risk, according to Koenig.

East Africa is another emerging hotspot, combining long dry spells with sudden, prolonged rain events, while Australia too has seen cycles of drought and deluge, she said.

Marsham noted that coastal areas face a double threat.

“Storm surges and high waves can generate flooding from the sea – again this is intensified by climate change as storms get stronger and sea-level rises,” he said.

“In other locations, climate change is melting glaciers, creating lakes that can release water suddenly to create devastating flooding.”

For scientists, the message is clear: flooding will only worsen unless the world curbs emissions and adapts its infrastructure.

“I think, on the whole, we will need to brace ourselves globally for increased flooding,” Koenig said.