ISTANBUL

As climate change reduces rainfall across the Middle East, communities are increasingly turning to groundwater for agricultural irrigation.

Combined with the region’s fragile soil structure, this is leading to the formation of massive sinkholes.

According to information compiled from various sources for a joint news report by an Anadolu correspondent in collaboration with the environment-focused Blue Peace Middle East (BPME) organization, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) are among the regions most affected by climate change.

In Lebanon, which faces “extremely high water stress,” the average annual temperature has increased by 0.11 degrees Celsius every decade, while the average monthly rainfall has decreased by 11 millimeters since 1950.

Another country in the region experiencing extremely high water stress is Iran, which is severely affected by the impacts of climate change. Since the 1960s, the country’s average temperature has risen by 2 degrees Celsius, rainfall has decreased by 20% over the last 20 years, and precipitation patterns have shifted 

Similarly, Jordan is another country facing extremely high water stress. Rainfall in Jordan is expected to decrease by 17% by the middle of the century and by 21% by its end. 

The 2020-2021 rainfall season in Iraq was recorded as the second driest period in the last 40 years. This led to a decrease in water flow in the Tigris and Euphrates rivers by 29% and 73% , respectively.

Drought and soil salinization caused by water scarcity result in the loss of 25,000 hectares of agricultural land each year. Currently, 70% of Iraq’s farmland is at risk of complete degradation due to climate change.

While temperatures in Türkiye are expected to rise by 1 to 2 degrees Celsius by 2040, regional rainfall in the country’s water sources is predicted to decrease by up to 200 millimeters.

In Syria, if the temperature rises by 1.2 degrees Celsius, droughts that used to occur once every 250 years are expected to become a once-in-10-years event.

If temperatures continue to rise up to 2 degrees, severe droughts are predicted to happen approximately every five years. 

Falling water levels lead to increased groundwater use in farming

Decreasing water resources due to climate change are leading to increased use of groundwater in the region, especially for agriculture. This results in the depletion of underground water and disrupts the natural balance.

In areas with high limestone content, this causes underground cavities to collapse, leading to the formation of sinkholes. Türkiye, Iran, Jordan, and the area around the Dead Sea are among the places where sinkholes are most frequently observed.

Sinkholes in Türkiye are mainly observed in the Konya Basin, where lakes such as Akgol, Mekke Lake, Hortamis Lake, and Beysehir Lake have dried up. The shrinking of the Dead Sea is also causing similar problems in several countries in the region.

In Iran, sinkholes appear in various parts of the country, with a concentration in the northwest. Many freshwater sources in this area are at risk of drying up, with Lake Urmia being one of the most well-known examples.

Additionally, the drying up of saline freshwater sources near sinkhole areas indicates that the region is increasingly vulnerable to sinkhole formation.

Explaining the water crisis in the region to an Anadolu reporter, Fetullah Arik, Director of the Sinkhole Application and Research Centre at Konya Technical University, said, "Unfortunately, there is a serious water shortage across a vast area extending from Afghanistan, Iran, Türkiye, Syria, and Iraq—located just north of the young Alpine-Himalayan system—to the Red Sea region and North Africa.”

“In Afghanistan, located at the easternmost part of this belt, groundwater is almost depleted, and there are serious problems with drinking water.” Arik shared the example.

Arik pointed out that there is intensive groundwater use in the region for agricultural production and emphasized that sinkholes are a consequence of the situation triggered by the climate crisis.

Explaining how these formations develop, Arik stated that a soil structure that can dissolve when it comes into contact with water is necessary for sinkhole formation. "Over time, these rocks interact with water, creating small cavities. These cavities grow and turn into caves. Eventually, the overlying layer can no longer support its own weight and suddenly collapses.” he said.

Arik provided information about regions with these conditions, stating that worldwide, especially in the Northern Hemisphere and the Mid-Latitudes, such formations, known as karst, are most commonly found along a belt stretching from America through Europe, Spain, Italy, Türkiye, Iran, and Afghanistan.

He also noted that these types of formations are observed in southern regions of Türkiye, as well as in Iraq, Syria, Iran, Middle Eastern countries, Palestine, and parts of North Africa.

Addressing the situation in the Middle East, “About two years ago, in an area near the Dead Sea, several people were swept into the water after a sinkhole collapse beneath a pool. Although some were rescued, the incident resulted in a loss of life.” said Arik.

At this point, Arik pointed to the necessary actions and concluded his remarks as follows:

"Geography is, in a way, destiny. For the Middle East, this means a shared fate. Therefore, positive steps must be taken for the joint management of water resources across the region.”

In a statement to Anadolu, Nizar Abu Jaber, a faculty member of the Geology Department at the German Jordanian University, emphasized that climate change and the population growth in the region are putting pressure on water resources.

“Therefore, there is immense pressure on resources to support all these people. As you know, the water level of the Dead Sea is dropping, decreasing by between 80 centimeters and 1 meter annually. The main reason for this is the significant diversion of water from the upper basins of the Jordan River.” Jaber shared this information.

Commenting on the lack of sufficient studies on how climate change has affected the region, Jaber stated that despite the limited data, the effects of global warming are now being felt.

Providing information about the situation in Jordan, “Agriculture consumes a great deal of water. There is also an excessive dependence on groundwater. Most of the water we use comes from wells, meaning underground water reserves. However, there is a serious problem with these aquifers. Water levels are dropping, and water quality is deteriorating. In other words, we face a major challenge in managing our groundwater resources. We need water, but at the same time, we are using these resources unsustainably.” stated Jaber.

Sharing information about the sinkhole problem in the region, Jaber point out:

“We are experiencing sinkhole issues in the southern part of the Dead Sea. There are high concentrations of salt in the surface sediment layers. The water level of the Dead Sea, which is at the same level as these salt layers, is beginning to drop. Previously, the groundwater near the shore was salty because the lake’s water was salty as well. However, when the water level drops, the salty water is drawn out and replaced by fresh water. When fresh water arrives, it dissolves the underground salt. As the salt dissolves, the ground becomes hollow and starts to collapse.”

Describing how sinkholes and ground collapses affect the local population, Jaber said:

“This is farmland, and it poses a serious danger to the people living here,” he said. “These sinkholes can appear very suddenly. There are many stories of people falling into them, and there is no early warning system in place.”

“In other words, it is not possible to predict where a sinkhole might appear. That’s why the government tries to keep people away from these areas due to safety concerns. However, poor communities who rely on agriculture for their livelihoods continue to farm there nonetheless.” Jaber stated.

Discussing possible regional actions, Jaber said, “I believe we need to collaborate because we must optimize and utilize our resources in the best possible way.”

⁠“None of us ever imagined something like this could happen.”

Hasan Koroglu, a farmer from Konya, spoke to Anadolu about how the sinkhole problem has affected their lives. He said they initially thought it was an earthquake when they first encountered a sinkhole incident:

“One of our friends saw it first. In the early days after it collapsed, there was water flowing at the bottom — it was even half full. But later, that water also disappeared. When it collapses, it makes a loud noise. Just two or three days before it happened, there was a man here named Murat. He had been talking about strange noises. He said, ‘I keep hearing a sound in my lap.’ And two or three days after he said that, this sinkhole appeared.”

Expressing his feelings about the unsafe situation, Köroğlu said:

“The first collapse happened just 100 meters from my house. None of us ever imagined something like this could happen. And even if we had, what could we have done? For example, just a day before the sinkhole appeared, our sheep were grazing right there. If it had happened one day earlier, they would have fallen in.”Köroğlu explained that after this incident, officials came to the area to conduct various inspections and measurements, and now they have somehow learned to live with these sinkholes.

The drying up of water sources in the region

Giving information about the drying lakes in the region, “There are drying lakes here like Cırali and Meyil. We remember them from our childhood. Until just recently, we used to swim in Meke Lake.” said Koroglu.

Koroglu, recalling that the region used to receive ample rainfall, said, "There used to be heavy rain and snow. The snow would stay on the ground for three months. They called it a harsh winter. It would last until March. I’m now 40 years old, and the last time I saw such snow was when I was about 17 or 18.”

“If it rained today, instead of irrigating the sugar beets 7-8 times, we would only need to water them 5 times.” told Koroglu and pointed out that the decrease in rainfall has affected irrigation needs in agriculture.

He emphasized that the reduction in rainfall has led to increased reliance on underground water sources, which also raises costs: “Especially with water being drawn from wells, you have to extend the pipe deeper, and the deeper you go, the more energy it takes to pump the water up. In the past, water was drawn from 40-50 meters. Now it’s 200 meters.”

⁠

Sinkhole formation has accelerated since the early 2010

Farmer Muhammed Lutfi Gulbahar stated that sinkholes were very rare in the early 2000s, but their occurrence became increasingly noticeable in the early 2010s. He mentioned that there are eight sinkholes in his own field and around 200 in the surrounding area.

"When we are in the field, we often wonder if a sinkhole might suddenly appear. But out of necessity, we continue to work in the fields. We make sure not to work at night.” Said Gulbahar.

Assessing the financial damage caused by the sinkholes, "They obstruct the movement of our tractors, forcing us to take detours. During planting and other processes, vehicles also face difficulties. The combine harvesters hesitate to enter because the machine itself weighs 10 tons, and it carries an additional 10-15 tons of sugar beet. They don’t want to enter the field with such heavy weight.” stated Gulbahar.

Gulbahar also reported that sinkholes have formed in residential areas of the region, forcing people to even abandon their farms.

“We used to visit these lakes as children. Seeing them like this breaks our hearts”

Farmer Gulbahar described the rainfall situation in the early 2000s, saying, "Back then, we used to have better snowfall. In recent years, droughts have become more common."

He emphasized that they clearly feel the effects of climate change, noting that planting seasons have shifted, winters now extend into spring, and the seasons are gradually changing.

Pointing to the drying lakes in the area, Gulbahar added, "We used to visit these lakes as children. Seeing them like this breaks our hearts.”