The European Union is steadily reducing its reliance on Russian gas, aiming for a complete phase-out by early 2028, though experts warn that achieving this goal will require careful coordination, infrastructure development, and market management to prevent supply disruptions and price spikes.
Tatiana Mindekova, policy advisor on European energy at Ember, told Anadolu that the EU has made significant progress in cutting dependence on Russian gas.
In 2021, Russia supplied roughly 40-45% of Europe's gas and by late 2024, that share had fallen below 20%, Mindekova said.
"Under the REPowerEU framework, the bloc is moving toward a full ban on Russian-origin gas by early 2028 — a clear shift from contingency planning to a legally binding commitment," she added.
Mindekova noted that while the EU is on the right path, fully eliminating Russian gas will require strong enforcement and sustained efforts to reduce demand.
She highlighted several factors that could delay the transition: "First, LNG imports from Russia continue to rise — in September 2025, volumes were up 29% — showing pipelines aren't the only channel. Second, shadow shipping and re-export practices allow Russian gas to enter EU markets indirectly, complicating enforcement."
"Third, Member-state divergence slows progress: countries like Slovakia and Hungary remain highly dependent, with contractual and geographic constraints limiting rapid diversification. Additional challenges include infrastructure lock-in — new LNG terminals or pipelines could embed reliance on alternative fossil suppliers — and market volatility, as spot LNG prices are sensitive to global demand and weather shocks," Mindekova added.
She emphasized that, without EU-wide coordination these bottlenecks could delay the end-2027 phase-out goal.
- Diversification essential to replace Russian supply
Mindekova stressed that no single supplier can fully replace Russian gas, making diversification essential.
She detailed Europe's main alternatives, from Norway and the US to North Africa and Azerbaijan, noting that each source has capacity, geographic, or political constraints.
"Norway delivered 91 bcm in 2024 and remains the largest pipeline supplier, but production is finite. US LNG accounted for roughly 45% of EU LNG imports in 2024; expansion is possible, but increases exposure to a single supplier. North Africa (Algeria) supplied 39 bcm via pipeline and LNG, with limited growth potential due to domestic demand and political constraints," she explained.
"The Southern Gas Corridor (Azerbaijan via TAP/TANAP) currently delivers 10 bcm/year — small but strategically valuable. For landlocked countries like Slovakia, pipelines, storage, and reverse-flow capacity are crucial to access alternatives. The realistic path forward is a diverse supply portfolio combined with efficiency measures, electrification, and renewables. The less gas Europe uses, the easier it becomes to replace Russian volumes without creating new dependencies," Mindekova said.
She added that several policy steps are crucial: "The EU needs stronger origin-tracking and storage rules to prevent Russian gas from re-entering the market through re-exports. New long-term gas projects should include clear plans for a transition away from fossil fuels to avoid locking in excess capacity. Coordinated LNG procurement at the EU level would secure supplies at better prices and prevent member states from outbidding one another. The real game-changer, though, is on the demand side: enforcing efficiency targets, accelerating industrial conversion, and rolling out heat pumps at scale. Targeted support for highly exposed countries like Slovakia or Hungary would make the transition fair and politically stable. The cheapest and most secure gas is the gas Europe no longer needs."
- 'Europe's gas shift driven partly by Russia's own cuts'
Anne-Sophie Corbeau, global research scholar at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University, also noted the EU's progress.
"In 2021, EU-27 imported around 155 bcm of Russian gas, mostly pipeline gas (140 bcm). Last year, imports fell to 52 bcm (32 bcm pipeline, 20 bcm LNG), and this year, they are expected to drop to 35 bcm (20 bcm LNG, 15 bcm pipeline)," she said.
She explained that much of the reduction came not from EU policy, but from Russia cutting supplies in 2022, followed by stabilization in 2023-2024.
Some reductions resulted from European companies refusing to pay in rubles under Russia's 2022 Presidential Decree, while EU countries have been increasing LNG imports, particularly from Yamal LNG.
"Europe has not banned Russian gas entirely. Exceptions include the 14th EU sanctions package (June 2024), which prohibits Russian LNG imports to certain terminals not connected to the EU gas network," Corbeau said.
She stressed the importance of managing gas prices and ensuring sufficient supplies for landlocked countries, particularly via TurkStream, which delivers 15 bcm of Russian gas to Hungary, Slovakia, Serbia, and Greece.
"Cutting pipeline supplies too soon could raise European gas prices, especially for landlocked countries," she said.
"Additional LNG capacity is only just beginning to enter the market, with a significant increase expected in 2027-2028. By halting Russian gas imports in 2028, the EU aims to ensure sufficient alternative LNG supplies and minimize price impacts globally. Russian LNG (20 bcm) will be replaced by other suppliers, while pipeline supplies will come from diverse sources, including Romania's Neptun field, LNG via Croatia, Greece, Poland, Italy, Türkiye, and more Azeri gas via Türkiye," she added.
Corbeau noted that infrastructure readiness will be critical to meet demand in landlocked countries. "Projects like the Neptun gas field, LNG terminal expansions such as Krk, and new pipeline routes to Hungary and Slovakia must be completed on time. Any disruption could pose supply security risks for these countries."
By Ebru Sengul Cevrioglu
Anadolu Agency
energy@aa.com.tr
