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Red Sea LNG tanker disruptions may bear long-term economic risks: Analysts

- Rising tension in Red Rea, one of world’s most significant energy chokepoints, jeopardizes supplies of global oil, oil products, LNG

home > Natural Gas, Oil, Finance, Invesments, Energy Security, International Relations, International Organization 21.12.2023 15:16 Sibel Morrow

Red Sea LNG tanker disruptions may bear long-term economic risks: Analysts

Experts predict disruptions in the Red Sea and Suez Canal because of recent attacks by the Yemeni Houthis rebel group that have forced carriers to avoid waterways, will not immediately result in short-term major consequences but will have long-term political and economic risks.

Connected to the Mediterranean by the Suez Canal, the Red Sea is the shortest shipping route between Europe and Asia.

According to the US Energy Information Agency (EIA), oil shipments via the route accounted for 12% of total seaborne-traded oil in the first half of 2023, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments accounted for 8% of worldwide LNG trade.

In the first 11 months of 2023, around 8.2 million barrel per day (bpd) of liquids, including crude oil and oil products, were transported by vessels moving along the route, energy cargo tracker, Vortexa, revealed in an analysis Wednesday.

Of the 8.2 million bpd, Vortexa data showed 2.9 million bpd is traveling northbound, 3.9 million bpd southbound and the remainder as imports and exports contained within the Red Sea region.

Around 30 tankers a day pass via the Suez Canal on the northern side of the Red Sea, while 26 use Bab el Mandeb, the southernmost point.

There are around 230 tankers situated within the Red Sea on an average day, 155 are loaded and 75 are ballasted.

In terms of the cargo types transported along the Red Sea, Vortexa data showed that crude oil, diesel and jet are the most commonly carried cargoes on northbound oil tankers while crude, residual fuel oils and naphtha on southbound tankers.

Jay Maroo, a lead crude analyst for the Middle East and North Africa region at Vortexa, said Europe has historically been an importer of middle distillate products from the Middle East and India and the flow has picked up, especially for diesel since 2022.

Underlining the importance of flows via the Red Sea, Maroo said volumes of diesel and crude oil sailing northbound have grown sharply on the back of European and US sanctions on Russia.

Maroo said if there is a sustained disruption on Red Sea transits, vessels would have to take longer routes which would increase vessel tonnage requirements but also increase bunker consumption for operating vessels on the laden and the ballast legs, resulting in increased freight costs.

Also, if vessels moved to alternative waypoints such as the Cape of Good Hope, Maroo calculated that the voyage for the main routes affected would increase by at least 58%.


- Milder weather in northern hemisphere prevents gas price hikes

“So far, we have seen that some LNG tankers continue to travel through the Suez Canal, including tankers from Qatar, which is the main producer using the Suez Canal to send cargoes to Europe,” said Alex Froley, an LNG market analyst at ICIS, the world’s largest petrochemical market information provider.

Froley told Anadolu that there are tankers changing course to avoid the canal, however, cargoes between the US and Asia would not add a lot of extra days to go around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa than using the Suez Canal.

“It's still quite early to see how things will develop,” said Froley, pointing to companies choosing to avoid the Suez Canal, such as BP, while others continue to use the canal.

Froley said there is not a large amount of disruption to affect the European gas market as Qatar continues to send cargo through the canal.

Due to the current milder November and December months in the northern hemisphere, Froley said European gas storage is sufficient enough to support stability of the prices.


- Prolonged disruptions along Suez Canal may negatively affect fragile Egyptian economy

Francesco Sassi, a Bologna-based research fellow in energy geopolitics and markets at Ricerche Industriali ed Energetiche (RIE), pointed out that “LNG tankers have not been a primary target of Houthi attacks so far.”

“That is either because many tankers transiting northbound the canal come from Qatar, supporting the same faction, or because, politically speaking, US and Russian tankers going to Asia are not easy targets for Houthi and imply broader consequences compared to other vessels,” Sassi told Anadolu.

“Yet, while not carrying any major consequence in the short-term, the disruption of LNG trade through Suez in the long-term carries political and economic risks for global LNG trade,” he said.

The unrest near the Suez Canal comes on the heels of a recent drought that has prompted operators in the Panama Canal, another vital artery in international transportation routes, to reduce the number of ships permitted to use the canal.

Approximately 12% of global trade passes via the Suez Canal, whereas 5% via the Panama Canal.

“As long as the Panama Canal disruption persists, it decreases the arbitrage between Asian and European markets for US LNG, which became the main balance force in the global gas market after the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the crumbling of the EU-Russia gas interdependence,” said Sassi.

“Second,” Sassi added, “it reduces the interconnectivity between the Mediterranean Sea and other basins, while it strengthens the energy interdependence between nations in Southern Europe, Middle East and North Africa which already have gas pipelines and/or trade LNG under long-term contracts, such as Algeria and Türkiye.”

“Third, unless the military task force organized by the US and allies is successful in stopping the Houthi attacks soon, regional exporters of LNG and investors in new liquefaction terminal capacity will carry significant economic and political costs,” he said.

A persistent destabilization of the Red Sea may also jeopardize global LNG marketing strategy and the security of their exports, he said.

Pointing to longer delivery times and growing dangers for tankers, Sassi the scenario would significantly increase the costs of delivering Middle East LNG to Europe. “If a cold snap hit Asia or Europe, or both of them during this winter, LNG prices could spike as a consequence of these dynamics,” he said.

Sassi added that the prolonged inability of the Suez to operate also creates critical economic hurdles for the already fragile Egyptian economy.

By Sibel Morrow

Anadolu Agency

energy@aa.com.tr


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Türkiye’s Sakarya Gas Field daily output rises to 8.8 mcm

- Daily production is expected to rise to 9.5 mcm by end of April, says Alparslan Bayraktar
13.04.2025 Natural Gas

Spot market natural gas prices for Wednesday, April 9

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 12,510.96 Turkish liras
10.04.2025 Natural Gas

Spot market natural gas prices for Tuesday, April 8

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 12,752.67 Turkish liras
09.04.2025 Natural Gas

Spot market natural gas prices for Monday, April 7

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 12,933.27 Turkish liras
08.04.2025 Natural Gas

European gas prices start week with sharp decline amid global market pressures

- Natural gas prices fall to €33.5, marking their lowest level since May 2024
08.04.2025 Natural Gas

Spot market natural gas prices for Sunday, April 6

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 12,763.02 Turkish liras
08.04.2025 Natural Gas

Spot market natural gas prices for Saturday, April 5

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 12,759.81 Turkish liras
06.04.2025 Natural Gas

Spot market natural gas prices for Friday, April 4

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 12,783.78 Turkish liras
07.04.2025 Natural Gas

Spot market natural gas prices for Thursday, April 3

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 12,786.88 Turkish liras
04.04.2025 Natural Gas

Spot market natural gas prices for Wednesday, April 2

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 12,798 Turkish liras
03.04.2025 Natural Gas

Spot market natural gas prices for Tuesday, April 1

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 12,809.80 Turkish liras
02.04.2025 Natural Gas

Spot market natural gas prices for Monday, March 31

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 12,485 Turkish liras
01.04.2025 Natural Gas

Spot market natural gas prices for Sunday, March 30

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 12,385 Turkish liras
31.03.2025 Natural Gas

Spot market natural gas prices for Saturday, March 29

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 12,337 Turkish liras
30.03.2025 Natural Gas

Spot market natural gas prices for Friday, March 28

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 12,337.94 Turkish liras
02.04.2025 Natural Gas

Spot market natural gas prices for Thursday, March 27

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 12,387.86 Turkish liras
28.03.2025 Natural Gas

Türkiye's LPG production down 4.2% in January

- LPG imports fall by 4.2%, while exports rise by 47.7% in January, latest industry report reveals
29.03.2025 Lng/Lpg

Spot market natural gas prices for Wednesday, March 26

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 12,388.90 Turkish liras
27.03.2025 Natural Gas

Türkiye's natural gas imports down 4.1% in January

- Russia, Azerbaijan, and Iran are Türkiye's largest gas suppliers, providing 2.78 bcm, 795.39 mcm, and 185.97 mcm, respectively
27.03.2025 Natural Gas , analysis

Nord Stream 2 technically operational, says Russian deputy premier

- Pipeline, designed to transport Russian gas to Germany, has been idle since 2022
28.03.2025 Natural Gas

Spot market natural gas prices for Tuesday, March 25

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 12,354.93 Turkish liras
27.03.2025 Natural Gas

Spot market natural gas prices for Monday, March 24

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 12,368.21 Turkish liras
25.03.2025 Natural Gas

Spot market natural gas prices for Sunday, March 23

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 12,350 Turkish liras
24.03.2025 Natural Gas

Spot market natural gas prices for Saturday, March 22

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 12,375.57 Turkish liras
24.03.2025 Natural Gas

Spot market natural gas prices for Friday, March 21

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 12,387.83 Turkish liras
23.03.2025 Natural Gas

Spot market natural gas prices for Thursday, March 20

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 12,605.14 Turkish liras
23.03.2025 Natural Gas

Spot market natural gas prices for Wednesday, March 19

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 12,639 Turkish liras
21.03.2025 Natural Gas

Germany says no inclination in EU to resume gas imports from Russia

- Rising energy costs, competition from Asia for energy supply have led European businesses to exert pressure on EU to reconsider Russian gas imports
20.03.2025 Natural Gas

Spot market natural gas prices for Tuesday, March 18

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 12,718.16 Turkish liras
19.03.2025 Natural Gas

Spot market natural gas prices for Monday, March 17

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 12,804.66 Turkish liras
18.03.2025 Natural Gas

Spot market natural gas prices for Sunday, March 16

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 12,962.25 Turkish liras
17.03.2025 Natural Gas

Spot market natural gas prices for Saturday, March 15

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 13,098.50 Turkish liras
18.03.2025 Natural Gas

Spot market natural gas prices for Friday, March 14

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 13,134.80 Turkish liras
15.03.2025 Natural Gas

Spot market natural gas prices for Thursday, March 13

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 13,358 Turkish liras
14.03.2025 Natural Gas

Global gas production to rise 31% by 2050 amid growing demand

- Middle East is expected to lead in gas production growth during this period, says industry report
16.03.2025 Natural Gas

Spot market natural gas prices for Wednesday, March 12

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 13,400.21 Turkish liras
13.03.2025 Natural Gas

Spot market natural gas prices for Tuesday, March 11

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 12,598.54 Turkish liras
12.03.2025 Natural Gas

Spot market natural gas prices for Monday, March 10

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 13,480.14 Turkish liras
11.03.2025 Natural Gas

Spot market natural gas prices for Sunday, March 9

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 13,460.12 Turkish liras
10.03.2025 Natural Gas

Spot market natural gas prices for Saturday, March 8

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 13,451.09 Turkish liras
10.03.2025 Natural Gas

Russia ready to assist Indonesia with oil, gas, nuclear energy projects: Envoy

- 'We are ready to be one of the suppliers of oil and gas, for example, LNG [liquified natural gas] and crude oil to Indonesia,' says Sergei Gennadievich Tolchenov
11.03.2025 Natural Gas , Oil , Energy Diplomacy

Spot market natural gas prices for Friday, March 7

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 13,457.23 Turkish liras
09.03.2025 Natural Gas

Spot market natural gas prices for Thursday, March 6

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 13,389.37 Turkish liras
07.03.2025 Natural Gas

Spot market natural gas prices for Wednesday, March 5

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 13,364.90 Turkish liras
06.03.2025 Natural Gas

Igdır-Nakhchivan natural gas pipeline opens

- Igdır-Nakhchivan natural gas project expected to meet natural gas needs of the entire Nakhchivan population for 30 years
07.03.2025 Natural Gas , Energy Diplomacy
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