Despite sweeping sanctions aimed at cutting energy ties with Moscow, the European Union continues to import large volumes of Russian LNG, with Russia remaining the bloc's second-largest supplier even as Brussels moves to phase out the fuel entirely by 2027.
According to Eurostat data, EU LNG imports rose 5.2% year-on-year to a record high in the first quarter of 2026 and were 121% higher than in the same period of 2021, before the war began.
Pipeline gas imports, meanwhile, recorded only a modest annual increase in the first quarter but remained roughly half their pre-war level as the bloc continued shifting toward LNG.
Before the war, the US accounted for 24.1% of the EU’s LNG imports, while Russia’s share stood at 21.2%. By the first quarter of this year, the US share had climbed to 57.4%, cementing its position as the bloc’s dominant supplier.
Although Russia's share declined to 17.3%, it remained the EU's second-largest LNG supplier.
A key factor behind Russia's continued presence has been the Yamal LNG project, which supplies most Russian LNG delivered to Europe.
According to Kpler data, LNG shipments from the Yamal LNG project to the EU reached a record 9.9 million metric tons in the first half of 2026, up 16% from a year earlier.
The volume was also about 29% higher than the 7.7 million metric tons shipped in the first half of 2021, underscoring the project's growing role in Europe's LNG supply despite the bloc's efforts to reduce dependence on Russian energy.
- EU advances phased exit from Russian LNG
While the EU expanded sanctions on Russia's energy sector following Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, restrictions on LNG imports remained more limited than those imposed on other energy commodities.
In June 2024, the bloc banned the transshipment of Russian LNG through EU ports to third countries but exempted cargoes intended for domestic consumption within member states.
The EU has since gone further, adopting legislation that will phase out Russian LNG imports by 2027.
- Strong Yamal LNG flows to Europe come as no surprise
Ed Cox, global LNG analyst at London-based ICIS, said continued strong Russian LNG deliveries were not surprising, although Russia's broader role in Europe's energy market has diminished considerably since before the war.
According to Cox, high Yamal LNG exports reflect the fact that most volumes are sold under long-term contracts rather than on the spot market.
" We are not surprised to see the strong Yamal flows to Europe this year. The plant has been producing at a high level, according to our data. The measures the EU took to stop short-term contract volumes from Yamal to Europe in April were not significant because the vast majority of Yamal exports are on a longer-term contract basis," he said.
Cox said ICIS has not seen any indication that the EU is reconsidering its plan to phase out Russian LNG. While prolonged constraints on Qatari LNG exports through the Strait of Hormuz could create pressure to delay the policy, he said the bloc remains committed to ending its reliance on Russian LNG despite potential supply challenges stemming from the war in Ukraine.
He added that the US has been among the biggest beneficiaries of Europe's shift toward LNG and expects the US share of European LNG imports to increase further in the coming years.
Cox also noted that Europe's growing dependence on LNG has intensified competition with Asian buyers, creating some market risks, but could also generate opportunities if the market rebalances and prices decline.
- US emerges as biggest economic beneficiary of Europe's LNG shift
Charles Costerousse, Senior LNG and Gas Analyst at Kpler, said the EU has largely replaced lost Russian pipeline gas with LNG imports from the US.
“Most of the lost Russian pipeline gas has been replaced by US LNG. While Russia's share of the EU LNG import mix has remained more or less the same, US LNG has soared to 60% of the import mix in 2025, compared with 27% in 2021,” he said.
Costerousse said Russian LNG had long been viewed as a reliable and competitively priced source of supply for Europe. However, the roughly 12-15 million tonnes per year of long-term Russian LNG contracts that remain legally importable into the EU are due to expire on Jan. 1, 2027.
“Finding alternative suppliers that can offer the same level of reliability and affordability will be challenging,” he said, adding that infrastructure constraints have become less of a concern as the EU has significantly expanded regasification capacity in recent years.
He said the US has emerged as the biggest economic beneficiary of Europe's shift toward LNG. "The US has indeed benefited the most from this, thanks to the amount of new US liquefaction capacity that has come online over the past three to four years, as well as its export flexibility," Costerousse added.
- Energy security concerns complicate efforts to replace Russian LNG
Matt Drinkwater, Gas and LNG Analyst at Energy Aspects, on the other hand said that the high volume of shipments from Yamal LNG reflects the continuation of purchases under existing contracts before the EU's long-term ban on Russian LNG takes effect.
Drinkwater said contractual obligations held by European buyers, combined with energy security concerns arising from tighter global LNG supplies due to the conflict in the Middle East, are among the key factors slowing the full replacement of Russian LNG.
“For one, there’s little appetite in Europe to return to importing Russian gas because of the way it was politicized in 2021-22 and the significant costs that were imposed on the European economy by that politicization,” Drinkwater said.
He also pointed to ongoing arbitration-related liabilities between Gazprom and its former European customers, arguing that these disputes are unlikely to be resolved quickly or easily.
By Duygu Alhan
Anadolu Agency
energy@aa.com.tr
