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Are Ukraine-Russia gas transit talks politically driven?

- Russia, Ukraine talks on gas transit contract sees Russia seeking short-term deal while Ukraine wants long-term contract

home > Natural Gas, Lng/Lpg, Natural Gas, Energy Security, International Organization, Energy Projects, General 15.11.2019 10:41 Murat Temizer

Are Ukraine-Russia gas transit talks politically driven?

If a deal is not in place by Dec. 31 for Russian gas supplies to Ukraine followed by supply disruptions, it will be because political factors have outweighed commercial ones in the Russia-Ukraine gas relationship, the latest report of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES) finds.

The Russia-Ukraine Gas Transit Talks: Risks for All Sides report written by OIES experts shows that given the length of time that long-term commercial contracts take to negotiate, it would be improbable, but not impossible for the signing of a contract for Ukrainian gas transit by Dec. 31.

It said that at this stage, it could take only a meeting of the Russian and Ukrainian presidents, covering both gas issues and the military conflict in eastern Ukraine, to bring about a breakthrough.

The transit contract between the parties was established in January 2009. The agreement on the supply of natural gas and the delivery of Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine will expire at the end of 2019 and covers a significant share of Europe's gas demand.

In April 2014, Gazprom increased the gas price for Naftogaz by over 80% within days following the Russian occupation of Crimea and in November 2015, Ukraine stopped natural gas imports from Russia.

The experts detailed what they consider are the two sets of related factors that influence the negotiations. Firstly, commercial issues and secondly political factors relating to Russia's wider disputes with the EU and Ukraine, not only over gas but also over Crimea, the military conflict in eastern Ukraine along with broader geopolitical issues.

"For many years, hopes that gas transit issues would be delinked from these wider problems have disappointed," the OIES said.

The report deduces that if no deal is reached by the end of the year when the long-term agreement between the two countries expires, it will be because of political factors. If, on the other hand, a deal is reached, it will be because commercial issues have been prioritized.

The report focuses on possible gas disruptions from Russia to Ukraine and to Europe and underlined that should disruptions ensue, it would be extremely damaging for the image of Russian gas in Europe. Nonetheless, Russian authorities are still convinced that with a coal and nuclear phase-out in Europe, European customers have no other option other than to keep buying cheap Russian gas.

- Ukraine and Moldova to face most serious security issues

The OIES said in the scenario of failed tripartite negotiations between the EU, Ukraine and Russia followed by gas interruptions, Ukraine and Moldova would be among the countries that would face the most serious security of supply issues.

"In the event of a supply interruption, the main difficulty facing the government and Naftogaz [Ukraine’s state oil and gas company] will be to ensure that gas can be delivered from the storage facilities, mainly in the west, to the main centers of population in the center, east and south of Ukraine. Naftogaz states that the security of supply arrangements in place will ensure uninterrupted supply to all consumers for at least two months from Jan.1, even in the event of a cold winter," it explained.

The report recalled the 2009 incident when supplies were interrupted for two weeks, and in which reverse flows began to supply Ukrainian customers in the center and east of the country from storage facilities in the west.

Naftogaz stated that preparations have been made for a similar reversal in 2020 if necessary, including the upgrading of two compressor stations in the Kiev region.

In 2018, total transit via Ukraine to Europe amounted to 86.8 billion cubic meters (bcm). Ukraine produced around 21 bcm of natural gas last year and consumed 32.3 bcm.

-Gas storage of European countries

Russian gas is delivered to continental Europe via eight interconnection points, of which five are exit points for the Ukrainian transit system.

The effects on each country should interruptions occur have been addressed in the report. It detailed that Austria, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia have enough spare daily withdrawal capacity in their storage to compensate for the loss of net imports received via Ukraine, whereas Bulgaria, Croatia, Greece, North Macedonia, Serbia, and Slovenia do not.

OIES said given that “Russia’s Gazprom is the main supplier of gas to Hungary, Serbia, and Croatia, and has coordinated the substantial additional injections into Hungarian storage to mitigate the effects of an interruption in Ukrainian transit, it is reasonable to assume that gas from Hungarian storage could be used to meet the shortfalls in Serbia and Croatia.”

If this is the case, the report said that Hungarian storage would still be sufficient to meet the needs of those three countries combined. Furthermore, given that Italy has plentiful storage and acts as a transit state for gas deliveries to Slovenia, whose gas demand is a fraction of that of Italy, it is also not unreasonable to expect that gas from Italian storage could be used to meet a shortfall in Slovenia.

Greece, Bulgaria and North Macedonia receive Russian gas via Ukraine using the Trans-Balkan pipeline but Greece is the only country that also receives gas from other sources: Azeri gas via Turkey and LNG.

For Bulgaria, the crucial development is the proposed reversal of the Trans-Balkan to flow from south to north, as part of the launch of the first line of the TurkStream on Jan. 1, 2020. This is dependent on the Bulgarian Transmission System Operator (TSO), Bulgartransgaz, signing an agreement with the Turkish TSO, BOTAS, which to date has not been announced.

On Oct. 28, Bulgartransgaz announced a capacity auction to be held on Nov. 4 for new entry capacity from Turkey to Bulgaria, with new pipeline infrastructure to be launched on Jan. 1, 2020.

"As of Nov. 11, the results of that capacity auction have not yet been announced, although reports suggested that 26 million cubic meters of gas per day would be made available. If this is correct, then flows of this gas into Bulgaria would be sufficient to meet the combined needs of Bulgaria, Greece, and North Macedonia," it said.

- Much lower gas prices

OIES stressed the possibility of not having any interruptions to the Ukrainian transit, or if there is one, it might only last for a few weeks before a new agreement is reached.

"In that case, Europe is likely to end the summer with a substantial amount of gas in storage, especially if first quarter of 2020 brings mild weather, given the historically high levels of storage across Europe. Of the 19 countries whose storage data is reported by the Gas Infrastructure Storage Europe Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory, only Latvia (72%) had storage that was less than 95% full as of Nov. 9, 2019," the report said.

According to the OIES, the result of no transit interruption is therefore likely to result in relatively low hub prices in Europe in the spring of 2020, and even lower prices in summer 2020.

The dynamics of the European summer gas market in 2019, the report said saw the consumption of pipeline supplies and the injection of LNG supplies into storage.

OIES recounted one of its expert’s views that affirmed that if European storage is still relatively full at the start of summer 2020, plentiful LNG supplies on the global market could cause a substantial oversupply and very low European hub prices.

"Such a situation would be exacerbated by a mild winter in the northern hemisphere in 2019-20 (thus reducing gas demand in North America, Europe, and the major Asian LNG markets), subdued LNG demand in South America and the Middle East, a slowdown in growth in demand in the emerging Asian LNG markets, and the continuation of current levels of pipeline supplies into Europe," it said.

OIES said that moving into the third quarter of 2020, if storage is once again completely full, LNG supplies coming into Europe would have nowhere to go, putting further downward pressure on prices.

- Further doubts on gas and declining role of Ukraine

The Oxford experts argue that one significant consequence of a supply interruption would be that, on the European political level, further doubts would be raised about the role of gas in the energy mix.

Experts claim that arguments against reliance on gas would be strengthened. With the newly-elected European Commission due to oversee the drafting of a new decarbonization package, Brussels may opt to further reduce the role of gas in the EU's energy transition.

"As for the transit of Russian gas to European markets, the role of Ukraine will be significantly reduced, if not in 2021-22, then shortly thereafter. Gazprom will seek arrangements under which its own pipelines, including Nord Stream 2 and TurkStream 2, are used as baseload, and Ukraine becomes the route of last resort," the report said.

It added that Ukraine now consumes about 20 bcm of its own gas per year and 10-15 bcm of imports per year, all currently delivered at the western borders.

The report also surmised that another outcome for the talks could be in the resumption of direct imports from Russia.

"These are very unlikely to be on a long-term contract basis as they were prior to 2015, but sales into a traded market. One issue for Gazprom is whether it intends to make such sales at all, especially given the potential for gas bought at entry points on the Russia-Ukraine border to be resold by other parties at Ukraine's western border," it noted.


By Murat Temizer

Anadolu Agency

energy@aa.com.tr


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Qatar aims to raise LNG production by 64% by 2027

- Qatar will increase LNG production from 77 million tons currently to 126 million tons per annum by 2027, study shows
25.11.2019 Lng/Lpg , Middle East-Africa , General

Spot market natural gas prices for Sunday, Nov. 24

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas in spot market costs 1,402 Turkish liras on Saturday
25.11.2019 Natural Gas , General

Power of Siberia gas pipeline to start ops. on Dec. 2

- Power of Siberia which will transfer 38 billion cubic meters per year of Russian gas to China
26.11.2019 Natural Gas , Energy Projects , Eurasia

Turkish president to visit Qatar Monday

- Recep Tayyip Erdogan to attend 5th meeting of Turkey-Qatar High Strategic Committee
26.11.2019 Natural Gas , Lng/Lpg , Energy Diplomacy , World , Middle East-Africa

Spot market natural gas prices for Saturday, Nov. 23

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas in spot market costs 1,399 Turkish liras on Saturday
25.11.2019 Natural Gas , Turkey

Spot market natural gas prices for Friday, Nov. 22

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas in spot market costs 1,405 Turkish liras on Friday
23.11.2019 Natural Gas , Turkey

Germany preparing to host Cyprus talks

- UN chief Guterres to meet Turkish, Greek Cypriot leaders in Berlin on Nov. 25
23.11.2019 Natural Gas , Energy Diplomacy , Turkey , Europe

Turkey starts 4th drilling in Eastern Mediterranean

- Turkey to defend its own right, people's right in Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus: Energy minister
24.11.2019 Natural Gas , Turkey

Spot market natural gas prices for Thursday, Nov. 21

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas in spot market costs 1,406 Turkish liras on Thursday
22.11.2019 Downstream , Stock Market , Turkey

TANAP's Europe link inauguration to be held on Nov. 30

- Nearly 3.18 billion cubic meters of gas transited to Turkey up to end of October through TANAP, energy minister says
24.11.2019 Electricity , Natural Gas , Turkey , Europe

Turkey, TRNC continue to work on mutual energy projects

-Turkey and Turkish Rep. of North Cyprus share vision for gas pipeline and underwater electricity cable between two countries
24.11.2019 Electricity , Natural Gas , Energy Diplomacy , Turkey

Nord Stream 2 to begin ops in mid 2020: Russian Dep. PM

- Nord Stream 2 project's completion date was originally set for end of 2019
22.11.2019 Natural Gas , International Relations , Europe , Eurasia

Spot market natural gas prices for Wednesday, Nov. 20

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas in spot market costs 1,408 Turkish liras on Wednesday
21.11.2019 Natural Gas , Turkey

Spot market natural gas prices for Tuesday, Nov. 19

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas in spot market costs 1,411 Turkish liras on Tuesday
21.11.2019 Natural Gas , Turkey , General

Both sections of TurkStream pipeline filled with gas

- TurkStream consists of two lines, each with a length of 930 kilometers and total capacity of 31.5 billion cubic meters
20.11.2019 Natural Gas , Turkey , Eurasia , General

Algerian LNG carrier arrives in Turkey

- Ramdane Abane LNG vessel reaches Turkey on Tuesday
20.11.2019 Lng/Lpg , Turkey , General

Ex-US envoy to Ukraine ‘rejected claim against Biden’

- 'Giuliani raised and I rejected the conspiracy theory,' says former special envoy Kurt Volker
20.11.2019 Natural Gas , Energy Security , Eurasia , General

Spot market natural gas prices for Monday, Nov. 18

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas in spot market costs 1,411 Turkish liras on Monday
19.11.2019 Natural Gas , Turkey , General

Algerian LNG vessel due to arrive in Turkey on Tuesday

- Vessel is expected to arrive at Marmara Ereglisi LNG terminal at 09.00 local time
18.11.2019 Lng/Lpg , Turkey , General

Spot market natural gas prices for Sunday, Nov. 17

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas in spot market costs 1,409 Turkish liras on Sunday
18.11.2019 Natural Gas , Turkey

Belarus hopeful Russia will decrease gas prices in 2020

- Minsk fully dependent on Russian gas
19.11.2019 Natural Gas , Eurasia

Poland gas firm PGNiG plans ending imports from Gazprom

- PGNiG informs Gazprom of its plan not to extend current gas contract that will expire in 2022
19.11.2019 Natural Gas , Europe , Eurasia , General

Spot market natural gas prices for Saturday, Nov. 16

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas in spot market costs 1,412 Turkish liras on Saturday
17.11.2019 Natural Gas , Finance , Turkey , General

Bangladesh: Gas pipeline blast kills 7, injured 25

- Death toll may rise as some injured in explosion are in critical condition, say police
18.11.2019 Natural Gas , Asia , General

Spot market natural gas prices for Friday, Nov. 15

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas in spot market costs 1,415 Turkish liras on Friday
17.11.2019 Natural Gas , Turkey

'Ankara will continue to stand by Turkish Cypriots'

- Turkish Vice President Oktay attends official ceremony marking 36th anniversary of Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus
18.11.2019 Natural Gas , Oil , Energy Diplomacy , Energy Security , International Organization , Energy Projects , General

Spot market natural gas prices for Thursday, Nov. 14

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas in spot market costs 1,405 Turkish liras on Thursday
15.11.2019 Natural Gas , General

Erdogan marks 36th foundation anniversary of TRNC

- Turkish president says will never allow anyone to usurp Turkish Cypriots' rights on hydrocarbon resources
15.11.2019 Natural Gas , International Organization , Energy Projects , General

Are Ukraine-Russia gas transit talks politically driven?

- Russia, Ukraine talks on gas transit contract sees Russia seeking short-term deal while Ukraine wants long-term contract
16.11.2019 Natural Gas , Lng/Lpg , Natural Gas , Energy Security , International Organization , Energy Projects , General

Spot market natural gas prices for Wednesday, Nov. 13

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas in spot market costs 1,416 Turkish liras on Wednesday
14.11.2019 Natural Gas , Turkey

Spot market natural gas prices for Tuesday, Nov. 12

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas in spot market costs 1,423 Turkish liras on Tuesday
13.11.2019 Natural Gas , Turkey

Canada's Valeura mainly focusing on well tests in 3Q19

- Firm is focusing on understanding lateral play, and moves test equipment to Devepinar-1 well, 20 km to west of Inanli-1
14.11.2019 Natural Gas , Turkey , General

Eastern Med: Turkey-led drill shows interoperability

- Dogu Akdeniz-19 provides advanced training opportunities to allied nations, says Pakistan navy captain
13.11.2019 Natural Gas , Oil , Energy Security , International Relations , Turkey

Russia's LNG exports up 60% in Jan-Sep 2019

- LNG export volumes from Russia increase to 46.6 billion cubic meters in Jan-Sep compared to same period of 2018
13.11.2019 Natural Gas , Lng/Lpg , Eurasia

Turkey vows to defend rights in East Mediterranean

- No one should doubt that Turkey will continue exploration, drilling activities in region, says ministry
12.11.2019 Upstream , Energy Diplomacy , Turkey , Europe , General

EC adopts sanction framework for Turkish E.Med drilling

- Framework will allow sanctioning of individuals or entities in relation to Turkey's drilling activities in E. Med., EC says
12.11.2019 Natural Gas , Energy Diplomacy , Turkey , Europe

Spot market natural gas prices for Sunday, Nov. 10

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas in spot market costs 1,422 Turkish liras on Sunday
11.11.2019 Natural Gas , Turkey

Spot market natural gas prices for Saturday, Nov. 9

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas in spot market costs 1,427 Turkish liras on Sunday
11.11.2019 Natural Gas , Turkey

Spot market natural gas prices for Friday, Nov. 8

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas in spot market costs 1,427 Turkish liras on Friday
10.11.2019 Natural Gas , Turkey

Spot market natural gas prices for Thursday, Nov. 7

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas in spot market costs 1,407 Turkish liras on Thursday
08.11.2019 Downstream , Stock Market , Turkey

SOCAR AQS becomes Global Reporting Initiative member

- With Global Reporting Initiative Community membership, SOCAR AQS will apply high standards for transparency and reporting
09.11.2019 Natural Gas , Oil , International Organization , Asia , General

Spot market natural gas prices for Wednesday, Nov. 6

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas in spot market costs 1,399 Turkish liras on Wednesday
07.11.2019 Natural Gas , General

Rosneft income up, revenue slightly down in 3rd qtr.

- Net income rises 58%, revenue falls 2.2% from third quarter of last year
07.11.2019 Natural Gas , Oil , Energy Projects , Asia

Chesapeake net loss shrinks, revenue falls in 3rd qtr.

- Revenue decreases to $2.09 billion in third quarter of 2019, marking a 13.6% decline year-over-year
06.11.2019 Upstream , Upstream , Invesments , Americas

Spot market natural gas prices for Tuesday, Nov. 5

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas in spot market costs 1,409 Turkish liras on Tuesday
06.11.2019 Natural Gas , Turkey

Turkish drillship Fatih to resume drilling in East Med.

- "If there are [oil and gas] resources, we will find them," Turkish energy minister Fatih Donmez says
07.11.2019 Natural Gas , Turkey

Big oil, gas find in UAE boosts ranking to 6th in world

- Reserves include 7 billion barrels of oil, 1.64 trillion cubic meters of gas, lifting UAE up from 7th position globally
06.11.2019 Natural Gas , Oil , Middle East-Africa , General

Spot market natural gas prices for Monday, Nov. 4

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas in spot market costs 1,413 Turkish liras on Monday
05.11.2019 Natural Gas , Turkey

Erdogan helps Pakistan escape huge penalty: PM Khan

- With help of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Karkey dispute has been amicably resolved, says Pakistan’s premier
05.11.2019 Natural Gas , Energy Diplomacy , Asia

Associated natural gas adds to US gas output growth

- Rising crude oil production leads to growing share of natural gas output from oil wells
05.11.2019 Upstream , Americas

Spot market natural gas prices for Sunday, Nov. 3

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas in spot market costs 1,414 Turkish liras on Sunday
04.11.2019 Natural Gas , Turkey

Spot market natural gas prices for Saturday, Nov. 2

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas in spot market costs 1,418 Turkish liras on Saturday
04.11.2019 Natural Gas , Turkey , General

Spot market natural gas prices for Friday, Nov. 1

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas in spot market costs 1,425 Turkish liras on Friday
03.11.2019 Natural Gas , Stock Market , Turkey

Spot market natural gas prices for Thursday, Oct. 31

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas in spot market costs 1,421 Turkish liras on Thursday
01.11.2019 Natural Gas , Turkey

Denmark approves Nord Stream 2 on its continental shelf

- Most European countries oppose project due to concerns of increased Russian influence in Europe's gas market
01.11.2019 Natural Gas , Energy Diplomacy , Europe , Eurasia

Spot market natural gas prices for Wednesday, Oct. 30

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas in spot market costs 1,420 Turkish liras on Wednesday
31.10.2019 Natural Gas , Turkey

Turkey's LPG imports up 6.8% in August 2019

- Total sales increase by 1.35% to around 432 thousand tonnes in August, according to Turkey's energy watchdog
31.10.2019 Lng/Lpg , Turkey

TurkStream natural gas in Hungary's interest: Putin

- Pipeline from Russia to Turkey runs under Black Sea and set to stretch to Turkey's neighbors
31.10.2019 Natural Gas , Energy Projects , Eurasia

Turkey needs to focus on gas production projects

- If Turkey becomes a trade hub, important opportunities will emerge for trade in Turkish lira, energy expert says
31.10.2019 Natural Gas , Invesments , Turkey , Eurasia

Spot market natural gas prices for Tuesday, Oct. 29

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas in spot market costs 1,432 Turkish liras on Tuesday
30.10.2019 Natural Gas , Turkey

Turkey's natural gas imports up 3.7% in August

- Total natural gas consumption decreases year-on-year by 12.8% in August
31.10.2019 Natural Gas , Energy Security , Turkey

Natural gas to help balance renewable energy transition

- World will witness growing competition among fuel sources from 2020, say Turkish and Russian experts discuss
31.10.2019 Natural Gas , Renewable , Downstream , Regulation , Eurasia

Spot market natural gas prices for Monday, Oct. 28

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas in spot market costs 1,438 Turkish liras on Monday
29.10.2019 Natural Gas

Turkey, Russia energy experts meeting to open in Istanbul

- Anadolu Agency, in cooperation with Russian TASS news agency, is hosting Wednesday's meeting to discuss natural gas
30.10.2019 Natural Gas , Turkey

Spot market natural gas prices for Sunday, Oct. 27

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas in spot market costs 1,438 Turkish liras on Sunday
28.10.2019 Natural Gas , Turkey

Amsterdam court freezes South Stream BV's shares

-Amsterdam District Court freezes South Stream Transport BV shares, the firm responsible for TurkStream build and management
29.10.2019 Natural Gas , Europe , Eurasia

Spot market natural gas prices for Saturday, Oct. 26

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas in spot market costs 1,437 Turkish liras on Saturday
28.10.2019 Natural Gas , Turkey

Spot market natural gas prices for Friday, Oct. 25

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas in spot market costs 1,438 Turkish liras on Friday
27.10.2019 Natural Gas , Turkey , General

Spot market natural gas prices for Thursday, Oct. 24

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas in spot market costs 1,440 Turkish liras on Thursday
25.10.2019 Natural Gas

Denmark approves offshore permit for Baltic Pipe proj.

- Baltic Pipe receives next administrative approval for project that will bring Norwegian gas via Denmark to Poland
26.10.2019 Natural Gas , Europe , General

More incentives for China's gas output as imports rise

- To be in effect through 2023, subsidy program will help gas production from tight formations
25.10.2019 Shale/Unconventional , Natural Gas , Energy Security , Asia

Spot market natural gas prices for Wednesday, Oct. 23

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas in spot market costs 1,447 Turkish liras on Wednesday
24.10.2019 Natural Gas , Turkey

Spot market natural gas prices for Tuesday, Oct. 22

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas in spot market costs 1,454 Turkish liras on Tuesday
23.10.2019 Natural Gas , Turkey

TurkStream infra. via Bulgaria completion due 2020

- Russia anticipates completion of TurkStream's infrastructure in Bulgaria in first half of 2020, says Russia's energy min.
24.10.2019 Natural Gas , Europe
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