- The Writer holds an MSc in Eurasian Political Economy & Energy from King’s College London and also an MA in European Studies from Sabancı University.
Most energy scenarios assume that consumption of natural gas in the EU market will increase in the coming years and decades. Due to weak economic performance and better promotion of renewables, combined with fierce competition with cheaper coal, the EU’s gas consumption has not been robust in recent years and from 2008 onwards, consumption was too low to confirm this scenario’s assumption.
However, according to the International Energy Agency’s New Policy Scenario, in 2015 Europe’s gas imports equaled 282 billion cubic meters (bcm) and by 2040 imports are projected to reach 400 bcm. Sources of supply from the Caspian region have become an issue of some urgency, allowing for the Southern Corridor strategy to be a useful tool for EU’s energy security objectives.
Since most EU countries have been heavily dependent on Russian sources for their gas imports, Turkey’s position in the region has moved to the forefront of the political agenda as a new and proactive partner to offer an ideal ground for secure, affordable energy for the EU market.
Ambitious to become an energy hub in the region, Turkey would do well to work diligently to cooperate on energy issues to provide Europe with “a reliable alternative supple route and offer Turkey the opportunity to prove that it is an indispensable partner for the EU” suggests Mehmet Ogutcu, the chairman of the Global Recourses Partnership. Since Turkey’s geostrategic position is, as the Istanbul Policy Center’s fellow Jorn Richert says, “sitting on the only transit route substantially free of Russia.”
Several pipelines such as the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline and the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum (BTE) gas pipeline were constructed to connect the Azerbaijani Caspian Sea to the EU energy market. Although the 1,700 kilometer long BTC pipeline has facilitated oil exports from reserves from the Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli field all the way from Georgia to Turkey, it carries less than 1.5 percent of global oil demand; but with the BTC pipeline, as Dr. Robert Cutler from Carleton University states, the EU has “gained access to valuable new crude oil supplies that do not pass through Russia.” The former U.S. Secretary of Energy, Bill Richardson pointed out “This is not just another oil and gas deal, and this is not just another pipeline. […] It is a strategic vision for the future of the Caspian region.”
The BTC has signaled a shift to Azerbaijani sources and engendered hope for other projects to come online. With the BTC as a source of inspiration, along with disappointment over the deceased Nabucco project, in 2012 the Trans-Anatolian pipeline (TANAP) and Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) duel project were suggested as alternatives. These have so far proven to be successful in bringing Azerbaijan’s gas from the Shah Deniz field to the Turkish border.
Major oil and natural gas pipelines in Turkey, whether they are operational or under construction, not only have helped Turkey to diversify its own imported energy sources. Additionally, they have also assisted Turkey in its quest to pursue its long-term ambition of becoming an energy hub, extending Turkey’s horizons in energy relations with neighboring countries.
Overall, energy co-operation would be a constructive catalyst both for Turkey and the region which could well serve diversification of energy supply sources. In light of these circumstances, bilateral or trilateral co-operation between Turkey and its energy rich neighboring states would promote a secure energy source for the region and for Europe, as well as strengthen Turkey’s hand in the Southern Gas Corridor as a major and a net beneficiary energy corridor country.
- Opinions expressed in this piece are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Anadolu Agency's editorial policy.