US Dollar Index sees first monthly rise in July since Trump took office
Tariffs remain high versus pre-April 2, recent trade deals improved outlook, says expert
Istanbul
ISTANBUL
The US Dollar Index increased 3.5% month-on-month in July, led by estimates about the Fed’s monetary policy future roadmap and the trajectory of the US economy.
The rise marked the first monthly hike since President Donald Trump took office for his second term in January.
The index has been on a downward trend throughout the year due to concerns about the weakening economy led by Trump’s protectionist policies.
Reports that Trump may fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell and estimates of a rate cut amid growth risks, as well as tensions with China, have caused uncertainties in the US economy, triggering declines.
Analysts said the decline in the index shows the investor response to Trump’s protectionism.
The index fell to 96.4 in early July, its lowest since February 2022, but rose 3.5% in the second half of July to 100 for the first time since May.
US macroeconomic data showed the country’s economy remained strong, and improvements in its labor market and consistent growth data contributed to the index’s performance.
After the Fed left rates unchanged at its last meeting, Powell said it was too early to tell if September could see rate cuts, which added to the monthly increase in the index.
Kyle Chapman, an FX markets analyst from London-based Ballinger Group, told Anadolu that the dollar showed its worst performance since the 1970s during the first half of 2025.
Chapman stated that the better-than-expected non-farm payroll numbers for June showed the economy remained strong despite some slowing.
He said the tariffs are much higher now than before Trump came to power, but recent trade deals reduced some risks, and the outlook is better than it was on April 2, when the sweeping reciprocal tariffs were unveiled.
Jane Foley, a senior FX strategist from Rabobank, told Anadolu that the S&P 500 has run at a record pace since June while recession fears eased.
She noted that the decline in the euro/US dollar exchange rate was partly due to statements from the EU and the US surrounding trade negotiations, while the two parties have yet to reach a deal.
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