- Stable 3rd quarter economic growth should be seen as the result of Türkiye's conscious policy roadmap that has reaped benefits over the past 21 quarters.

- The author is a senior expert at Initiate Futures, and leads the West Asia Program at the Institute of Regional Studies.

ISTANBUL

In the third quarter of 2025, Türkiye's economy grew 3.7% [1]. This performance also places Türkiye fourth among OECD economies. The momentum should be seen as the result of policy measures that have helped bring down inflation, now at a multiyear low [2]. These trends also generate optimism about higher revenue.

Ankara's increased emphasis on structural transformation suggests that the country will pursue growth beyond the gains seen in the third quarter. "We have a very large services surplus, which we would like to sustain by investing in hyperscale data centers, becoming the region's hub for exports of digital services," said Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek at the 2025 Doha Forum [3].

There is considerable optimism that Ankara will continue its current growth trajectory. The fiscal deficit is down to 3%, and there is evidence to suggest that the current account deficit has largely settled. As these factors gain significance in Ankara's economic thinking, the case for comprehensive planning grows stronger. After all, fiscal considerations, inflationary pressures, an emphasis on revenue streams, and value-added exports point to a well-rounded development vision [4]. With moderate commodity prices likely to support growth optimism next year, Ankara appears positioned to leverage both domestic and international drivers of financial stability to its advantage.

Türkiye's emerging digital growth frontier

Quality growth can be best assured when the contributors to the economy are multifaceted and full of promise. With a substantial services surplus [5] shaping Ankara's current ambitions, its push to invest in large-scale data centers [6] could help nurture a major economic growth contributor in the future. Evidence from key parts of the world shows that demand for hyperscale data centers is on the rise [7], and several countries are on course to set up indigenous industries to capitalize on the rush. Given the sustained relevance of tech-intensive industries to Ankara's economic growth model, the country is better positioned to offset some of the depressing growth factors and external risks in the future.

Relevant groundwork appears to be coming into view. Look no further than the November deal [8] between Turkish telecom Turkcell and Google to advance collaboration on cloud technologies. Türkiye's first-ever hyperscale data center can provide critical access to computing power for scores of companies and government agencies. Business transformations help inform Ankara's future economic planning, as firms make sizeable investments to streamline operations [9]. The added focus on data center growth complements Ankara's stated goal of expediting the technological breakthroughs necessary to bolster its digital economy ambitions. With more Turkish startups appearing prepared to capitalize on a $1 trillion strong technology market [10], Ankara's broader push for robust structural reforms could acquire long-term certainty.

Türkiye's expanding regional economic footprint

Next-generation industries allow for competitive strengths, new revenue streams, and increased global exposure of high-growth firms, elements that Türkiye's regionally expansive economic ambitions hold as pivotal. Türkiye's tourism sector, accounting for about 10% [11] of the country's gross domestic product (GDP), underscores regional considerations: about $50 billion in tourism revenue was generated in the first three quarters. Deeper recognition of Türkiye's "source markets" is key to retaining that momentum. In the context of enduring economic growth, helping Ankara's industries better integrate into the region can also add future certainty to growth ambitions. "Türkiye's credit risk premium (CDS) has fallen to 233 basis points, the lowest level in seven years," President Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently affirmed [12]. "November's inflation reading of 0.87% and a sharp drop in core goods inflation to around 18% were encouraging signs for the government's disinflation program," he added.

Long-term commitment to disinflation and stability

Erdogan's assessment reflects a future-oriented view of sustainable growth. Türkiye is not complacent, it recognizes the need to constantly evolve and advance its disinflation program, and despite signs that inflation has been more than halved, the goal is to bring numbers down to what is truly manageable. This puts the spotlight on Ankara's ambitions to ensure that inflation lands in single digits [13], treating it as a critical metric of progress and demonstrating the willingness to embrace economic reforms as a multiyear exercise.

Ultimately, Türkiye's stable third quarter economic growth should be seen as the result of a conscious policy roadmap that has reaped benefits over the past 21 quarters. The key is to understand that these benefits were not drawn in isolation: constant economic expansion has been owed to fiscal prudence, acknowledgement of growth risks and constraints, and a welcome desire to expand the sectors contributing to Türkiye's aggregate growth.

[1] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/turkiyes-economy-saw-37-annual-growth-in-q3-ranking-4th-among-oecd-countries-president/3760949

[2] https://www.dailysabah.com/business/economy/turkiyes-inflation-surprises-as-it-cools-to-lowest-in-4-years

[3] https://www.dailysabah.com/business/economy/structural-transformation-key-to-make-turkish-economic-gains-lasting

[4] https://www.dailysabah.com/business/economy/turkish-economy-expands-by-37-in-q3-to-maintain-growth-trend

[5] https://www.turkiyetoday.com/business/turkish-finance-minister-warns-of-tariff-war-spillovers-urges-regional-trade-integrat-3210944

[6] https://www.dailysabah.com/business/tech/turkcell-partners-with-google-for-1st-hyperscale-data-center-in-turkiye

[7] https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/special-reports/india-forward/shifting-horizons/will-data-center-growth-india-propel-country-global-hub-status

[8] https://www.dailysabah.com/business/tech/turkcell-partners-with-google-for-1st-hyperscale-data-center-in-turkiye

[9] https://www.invest.gov.tr/view?path=_en_Documents_turkiye-fdi-strategy-action-plans-2024.pdf&view=flipbook

[10] https://www.dailysabah.com/business/tech/1t-cloud-market-opens-global-opportunities-for-turkish-saas-startups

[11] https://www.dailysabah.com/business/tourism/tourist-arrivals-in-turkiye-approach-6-million-in-october

[12] https://www.trtworld.com/article/54eb61793cbc

[13] https://qna.org.qa/en/news/news-details?id=doha-forum-2025-global-ministers-officials-examine-future-of-world-trade-amid-geopolitical-tensions&date=7/12/2025

*Opinions expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect Anadolu's editorial policy.