Global markets mixed while all eyes turn to data releases

ISTANBUL

Global markets were mixed on Thursday as concerns over President Donald Trump’s tariffs somewhat eased, while all eyes turned to the US labor data set to be released on Friday.

US nonfarm payrolls will be closely monitored to determine the direction of employment trends after the Trump administration takes office this year.

The initial jobless claims in the US increased by 11,000 to 219,000, above the 214,000 estimate, official data showed on Thursday.

The non-farm business sector's labor productivity output per hour increased 1.2% in the fourth quarter of 2024, falling short of the expected 1.5% boost and following an upwardly revised 2.3% rise from the previous quarter.

The unit labor costs (ULC), one of the Fed’s inflation indicators, increased 3% in the fourth quarter of last year, below the 3.4% estimate, rising from a downwardly revised increase of 0.5%.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Thursday that solid growth with “full employment” and declining inflation would allow the bank to continue its rate cut cycle, though uncertainties around the impact of Trump’s tariffs and other policy changes require slowing down.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview on Thursday that the “strong-dollar policy is completely intact with President Trump.”

“We want the dollar to be strong; what we don’t want is other countries to weaken their currencies to manipulate their trade,” he said.

Meanwhile, US industrial and aerospace giant Honeywell’s shares fell 5.6% after announcing a division into three independently listed companies.

Automaker Ford’s stocks declined 7.5% after announcing an estimated loss of $5.5 billion in electric vehicle (EV) and software operations this year, while chipmaker Qualcomm’s shares fell 3.7% amid reports that it expects no sales growth in 2025.

Drugmaker Eli Lilly’s shares increased 3.3% due to quarterly and annual profits exceeding estimates, and tobacco firm Philip Morris shares soared 10.9% due to strong financial results.

On Friday, the US 10-Year Futures bond started the day at 4.45%, the US Dollar Index rose 0.1% to 107.8, and Brent crude oil increased 0.5% to $74.5 per barrel, while gold climbed 0.3% to $2,864 per ounce, after closing Thursday at a 0.2% loss with $2,856.6 per ounce.

On Thursday, the S&P 500 climbed 0.51%, and the Dow Jones fell 0.28%, while American futures started Friday on a negative course.

As for Europe, the Bank of England (BoE) cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.5%. Bank officials said inflationary pressures are still high despite the policy easing.

The bank had reduced its economic growth forecast for 2025 to 0.75% in November of last year.

At the same time, reports showing that the impact of Trump’s promised tariffs on the EU will be limited supported the risk appetite in the region.

The DAX 40 rose 1.47%, the FTSE 100 1.21%, the FTSE MIB 30 1.48%, and the CAC 40 1.47% on Thursday. While the DAX 40 and the FTSE 100 saw records near the close, European futures started Friday on a mixed course.

Meanwhile, a mixed course came to the fore in Asia. Chinese tech stocks gained after DeepSeek’s free and open-source artificial intelligence (AI) models revitalized interest in Chinese tech firms.

Japan’s household spending rose 2.7% in December, above estimates, while the preliminary leading economic indicators index rose to 108.9, up from 108.2 and above the estimate of 107.8. Analysts say the rise in household spending contributed to inflation concerns.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 6.25%.

The Nikkei 225 index fell 0.6% and the Kospi index 0.5%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.2% and the Hang Seng index climbed 1.3%.

In Türkiye, the BIST 100 gained 1.26% on Thursday, completing the day at 9,842.15 points. All eyes turn to the year’s first inflation report to be published by the Turkish Central Bank (TCMB).

The bank had upwardly revised its year-end inflation estimates for 2024 and 2025 to 44% and 21%, respectively, and it forecasted a decline to 12% in 2026.

The US dollar/Turkish lira exchange rate declined 0.1% on Thursday, falling to 35.8885, while it opened at a 0.3% increase on Friday.