Mucahithan Avcioglu
02 June 2025•Update: 02 June 2025
ISTANBUL
Global airline profits are expected to climb to $36 billion in 2025, marking an 11.1% year-on-year increase despite ongoing trade tensions, geopolitical risks, and economic uncertainties, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) said Monday.
According to IATA’s latest Global Outlook for Air Transport report, total airline revenues are forecast to hit a record $979 billion next year, while expenses are projected at $913 billion. The industry’s net profit margin is expected to rise to 3.7%, up from 3.4% in 2024.
The number of air travelers is also set to reach an all-time high of 4.99 billion in 2025, representing a 4% increase over 2024. Air cargo volumes are forecast to grow modestly by 0.6% year-on-year to 69 million tons.
Despite the positive outlook, IATA warned that several risks continue to threaten the sector, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict, escalating trade disputes, political fragmentation, and volatile oil prices. The report also noted that potential changes in US trade policy under the Trump administration could delay key business decisions, ultimately dampening demand for air cargo and corporate travel.
Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general, acknowledged the challenges facing the industry but emphasized that key indicators point to a stronger year ahead.
“The first half of 2025 has brought significant uncertainties to global markets. Nonetheless, by many measures, including net profits, it will still be a better year for airlines than 2024, although slightly below our previous projections.
"The biggest positive driver is the price of jet fuel, which has fallen 13% compared with 2024 and 1% below previous estimates. Moreover, we anticipate airlines flying more people and more cargo in 2025 than they did in 2024, even if previous demand projections have been dented by trade tensions and falls in consumer confidence," he said.
