- Paetongtarn Shinawatra suspended after leaked phone call suggests Thai premier ‘kowtowed’ to Cambodia amid border dispute
- Experts say the fallout may end her political career and push the country closer to early elections or a military intervention
ISTANBUL
A political storm is sweeping through Thailand following the dramatic suspension of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra earlier this month, shaking the country’s leadership and delivering a serious blow to the powerful Shinawatra political dynasty.
She is the second prime minister to fall since the 2023 general elections. Last August, former Premier Srettha Thavisin was removed after a court ruled he violated the constitution over a political appointment.
Paetongtarn’s suspension followed the leak of a phone call between her and former Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen, in which she appeared to criticize a top Thai army commander. The call, intended to ease tensions over a long-disputed stretch of the Thai-Cambodian border, instead triggered public outrage.
The fallout led 36 senators to file an ethical misconduct complaint with the Constitutional Court, which suspended her from office on charges of misconduct and dishonesty. Interior Minister Phumtham Wechayachai was appointed as acting prime minister.
“The Constitutional Court’s suspension of Paetongtarn from the premiership heightens Thailand’s political risk and policy performance markedly,” Thitinan Pongsudhirak, professor of political science and international relations at Chulalongkorn University, told Anadolu.
He said the scandal “became a full-blown crisis” after the leaked call suggested that the Thai premier had “compromised her position by kowtowing to” Hun Sen.
The leaked conversation emerged just weeks after Thai and Cambodian troops exchanged fire on May 28 along the contentious border, resulting in the death of a Cambodian soldier. The clash reignited longstanding tensions in the region.
According to Wanwichit Boonprong, a Thai political science expert based in Pathum Thani, “the call has made most Thais unhappy, accusing her of treason, putting Thailand at a disadvantage in negotiations with Cambodia.”
A recurring pattern in Thai politics
Matthew Wheeler, a senior analyst from the International Crisis Group, noted that the case reflects a recurring pattern in Thai politics.
“Since 2006, every government has either been aligned with Paetongtarn’s father, Thaksin Shinawatra, or aligned with the army and the royalist establishment,” he said. “All five of the Thaksin-aligned prime ministers, going back to Thaksin himself in 2006, have been ousted by a coup or the courts.”
Thaksin Shinawatra, a billionaire telecom tycoon, served as prime minister from 2001 until he was ousted in a 2006 coup. After spending more than a decade in exile to avoid criminal charges, he returned to Thailand in 2023.
Paetongtarn, widely regarded as Thaksin’s political heir, took over the Pheu Thai Party, a populist party with strong rural support, after the former prime minister was ousted. Pheu Thai, which came second in the 2023 elections, formed a fragile coalition with the more conservative Bhumjaithai Party, which represents business interests.
Bhumjaithai has since withdrawn from the coalition, citing concerns over the phone call scandal. Party leader Anutin Charnvirakul, who also serves as health minister, has long been at odds with Paetongtarn.
“While she survived an earlier no-confidence vote, the weakened coalition, under strain from nationalism-fueled tensions, may not withstand another,” said Mark Cogan, associate professor of peace and conflict studies at Kansai Gaidai University.
The Move Forward Party won the 2023 election but was later dissolved by the Constitutional Court for proposing to amend a law against insulting the monarchy, triggering further political upheaval.
Political uncertainty, economic strain
The political turbulence coincides with economic difficulties.
“Thailand’s tourism and manufacturing sectors have shown continued signs of struggle. The number of tourists visiting the country has not returned to pre-COVID-19 levels,” Cogan said.
Between 2020 and 2024, Thailand’s GDP grew just 2.6%, compared to 18% in the previous five-year period, according to the World Bank. The World Bank recently cut its 2025 growth forecast to 1.8%, citing the threat of US tariffs.
“Thailand is heading nowhere amid this instability,” Cogan said. “Pheu Thai’s economic agenda, which had stalled due to coalition infighting, has been derailed.”
The Constitutional Court has given Paetongtarn 15 days to present her defense. A ruling could result in her reinstatement or permanent removal.
Observers believe that even if she is cleared, her political future appears bleak.
“Paetongtarn may be seen as a spent force, and her political longevity in the remaining two years of the current parliamentary term is doubtful,” Thitinan said, noting intensifying street protests by conservative opponents, public discontent, and criticism in parliament.
What’s next for Thailand?
Wanwichit says early elections are inevitable.
“It is necessary to select a new prime minister, who is expected to come from the Pheu Thai Party. However, it is unlikely that this government will continue until the end of its term,” he said, projecting a dissolution of parliament and elections by early 2026.
Analysts also warn of a growing risk of military intervention.
“The prolonged limbo and ineffectual government will likely stoke conservative calls for a military takeover,” Thitinan warned. “The risk of such intervention has risen visibly.”
Paetongtarn, who also serves as culture minister, received royal endorsement just hours before the Constitutional Court’s ruling, allowing her to continue participating in Cabinet meetings and exert influence.
However, the government’s narrow majority of 261 to 234 gives smaller coalition partners disproportionate sway, further weakening Pheu Thai’s control over policymaking.
If Paetongtarn is ultimately removed, a new prime minister will have to be chosen from party lists submitted before the last election. Bhumjaithai’s leader is among the possible candidates.
For now, Thailand remains in political limbo, with the Shinawatra family under siege, the coalition fraying, and more protests looming.
