• Trump’s ‘primary focus … is on trade, and more specifically on reducing trade deficits and on reshoring industry back to the US,’ says Sourabh Gupta of the Institute for China America Studies
• Trump ‘is invoking New Delhi’s relationship with Moscow to justify his actions against a friendly country,’ says Praveen Donthi of the International Crisis Group
• ‘I don’t think the strategic direction of the India-US relationship gets affected because it is based on underlying structural realities in the Indo-Pacific,’ says Harsh Pant of King’s College London
• Trump is ‘more willing to make concessions to reset US-China relations than to advance US-India relations,’ says International Crisis Group’s Ali Wyne

ISTANBUL 

President Donald Trump’s unilateral tariffs have sparked unprecedented turbulence in US-India relations, traditionally seen as a strategic counterbalance against China, according to experts.

Trump signed on Wednesday an executive order for an additional 25% tariff on India as a penalty for importing Russian oil. That comes in addition to the 25% already imposed on India, placing it among the countries facing the highest duties worldwide.

Unlike his previous term, Trump’s second presidency has unearthed underlying frictions previously overshadowed by India’s significant investments in strengthening ties with Washington, especially amid China’s expanding influence in the broader Asia-Pacific region.

The disruption began as Trump accused India of “unfair” trade practices, highlighting high tariffs and urging New Delhi to open its agricultural and dairy markets. India resisted these demands as they relate to sensitive areas crucial for political parties in the predominantly agrarian country.

While Trump pushes allies and rivals alike toward new trade agreements, negotiations with India, among the first to initiate discussions, remain inconclusive. This impasse has frustrated Trump, whose “America First” campaign centers on revitalizing the US economy.

“Trump has very particular ideas on what his priorities are, and his priority is first and foremost trade issues,” Sourabh Gupta, Asia-Pacific strategic policy specialist at the Institute for China-America Studies, told Anadolu.

The US president “is not so focused on the broader strategic relationship, whether it’s with India or with other allies. His primary focus in year one of his second presidency is on trade, and more specifically on reducing trade deficits and on reshoring industry back to the US,” Gupta explained.

Bilateral trade between the US and India exceeded $190 billion last year, yet Washington runs a trade deficit of around $45 billion with New Delhi. Trump’s imposition of tariffs on Indian imports, penalties for purchasing Russian oil and defense equipment, and accusations from US officials of indirectly funding the Ukraine war have further strained the relationship.

New Delhi has countered by reminding Washington of previous US encouragement for continued Russian oil imports amidst disrupted supply chains due to sanctions on Moscow.  

Legacy relationships and geopolitical complexities

India’s longstanding ties with Iran and Russia date back decades, even during New Delhi’s non-alignment era.

“If those relationships had not been consolidated, they would not have developed over the last 15 years,” Gupta emphasized. “Because those are legacy relationships which had been well nurtured over the previous 75 or 50 years, that’s why India can maintain those relationships.”

Praveen Donthi, senior India analyst at the International Crisis Group, highlighted Trump’s strategy of leveraging India’s historic relations: “He is invoking New Delhi’s relationship with Moscow to justify his actions against a friendly country ... It might be a tactical move to put pressure on India to accept his terms on tariffs.”

India, the world’s fifth-largest economy, co-founded BRICS, an emerging economies bloc with Russia and China, a group Trump has criticized as anti-American.

Further complications arose when Trump repeatedly claimed credit for mediating a ceasefire between India and Pakistan following severe cross-border hostilities earlier this year. New Delhi, without naming Trump, has refuted his claims.

“New Delhi expected the European powers to take a stand in its favor,” Donthi recalled. “Instead, it had to face questions regarding its stand on the Ukraine war.”

Though there are tensions, experts maintain underlying structures remain stable. 

“There is some degree of turbulence” in US-India relations, said Gupta. “But that is happening at the leaders’ level. The relationship is actually pretty well anchored beneath the leaders’ level, at the very high senior officials’ level.”

Harsh V Pant, a professor at King’s College London, agreed Trump was combining multiple contentious issues, hoping to leverage negotiations: “Bringing a lot of issues together, like Iran and Russia and trade, of course, and ties with Pakistan to put pressure on India, in the hope that this leverage would be useful for him to finalize the deal with India.”  

Navigating strategic realities

Pant believes short-term turbulence is inevitable until a trade deal materializes but noted: “I don’t think the strategic direction of the India-US relationship gets affected because it is based on underlying structural realities in the Indo-Pacific. They are not based on individual presidential or Indian leadership inclinations.”

Even amid turbulence, the Indian foreign minister's multiple visits to the US, including Trump’s inauguration ceremony and a Quad meeting, signify sustained diplomatic engagement.

Gupta underscored continuity in India’s strategic vision despite leadership tensions: “India is continuously driving towards getting to that ceiling in terms of deepening its geopolitical relationship with the US.”  

Unexpected outcomes and realignments

Trump’s confrontational stance appears to have inadvertently accelerated warming relations between New Delhi and Beijing.

Ali Wyne, senior advisor for US-China relations at the International Crisis Group, pointed out Trump’s actions have disrupted longstanding momentum in US-India ties, suggesting Trump is “more willing to make concessions to reset US-China relations than to advance US-India relations.”

Donthi concurred, noting this shift has pushed New Delhi closer to Beijing, despite Gupta cautioning that India-China ties have only improved from a notably low point.

Gupta remarked: “The Indians just have to get their China relationship right. They are not.”  

Trust deficit and long-term perspectives

Pant cautioned Trump’s actions could spur internal debates questioning US reliability: “Because it will once again spur this debate in India … about whether America can be trusted as a reliable partner.”

Wyne believes Trump’s tactics weaken US leverage globally, leading New Delhi to intensify its multi-alignment strategy, anticipating a volatile phase with Washington.

Donthi concluded that while winning the tariff war remains Trump’s priority, his approach blurs the line between friends and foes, complicating geopolitical equations.

However, he added: “This is not going to permanently affect US-India relations. Both sides have been strengthening ties for the past two decades and they will continue on the path despite these hiccups and some trust deficit.

“You can say that New Delhi and Washington are beginning to learn how to deal with each other.”

Gupta summarized the strategic predicament, noting India’s unwillingness to abandon Russian ties entirely: “Indians will not give up on their relations with Russia, but they will concede some elements of their ties with Russia due to sanctions by the US and the EU.”  

* Saadet Gokce contributed to this report