• The violence gives Cambodia an opportunity ‘to call attention from the international community to back up their claims’ over disputed territories, says Thai author Supalak Ganjanakhundee
  
• ‘No doubt that Hun Sen succeeded in putting the Thai government on the back foot,’ says International Crisis Group analyst Matthew Wheeler
• ‘The use of force by Thailand and Cambodia has already undermined how ASEAN members should have solved their differences,’ says Khang Vu, a visiting scholar at Boston College

ISTANBUL

The recent bloody clashes along the restive border between Thailand and Cambodia are reinforcing military and dynastic politics, while putting significant strain on the unity of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), experts warn.

Analysts say the two countries, home to nearly 88 million people who largely rely on agriculture and tourism, gained no benefits from the armed conflict, the worst since clashes erupted over a decade ago.

The dispute has historical roots dating back to the French colonial era, when, in 1907, colonial authorities drew borders without clearly demarcating four contentious areas, including the historic Preah Vihear temple. The International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled in 2013 that the temple belongs entirely to Cambodia, ordering Thailand to withdraw its military personnel. Thailand, however, continues to reject the ICJ’s jurisdiction.

Tensions escalated significantly in May this year after a Cambodian soldier was killed in cross-border fire, prompting Thailand, which hosts tens of thousands of Cambodian workers, to close its borders.

Supalak Ganjanakhundee, a Thai analyst and author, told Anadolu that while ordinary people bear the brunt of these clashes, the violence provides Cambodia an opportunity “to call attention from the international community to back up their claims” over the disputed territories.

Supalak is among approximately 300,000 people displaced from their homes along the border since July 24, when heavy fighting erupted. Both sides accuse each other of initiating hostilities.

Matthew Wheeler, a Southeast Asia analyst at the International Crisis Group think tank, points to recent diplomatic developments as a catalyst for the latest escalation.

The conflict intensified after Thailand’s acting Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai recalled his ambassador from Phnom Penh, and expelled Cambodia’s envoy from Bangkok, following consecutive landmine incidents that injured Thai soldiers.

Back in Thailand, Supalak highlights that the powerful Thai military is leveraging this conflict “to achieve their gains to maintain their authority and influence in Thai politics.”

Thailand’s military has dominated the country’s politics for most of its history since independence and, even after relinquishing direct power in 2023, analysts say it continues to influence politics indirectly through aligned parties.

Leaked phone call and family fallout

Complicating matters further, the clashes ruptured a decades-long relationship between Cambodia’s Hun family and Thailand’s Shinawatra dynasty.

Thailand’s popular Thaksin family

Former Cambodian leader Hun Sen ruled for 38 years before transferring power to his son Hun Manet, while Thailand’s ex-Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra was ousted by the military in 2005. Their children have long maintained close relations.

However, ties were severely damaged after Hun Sen leaked a phone call with then-Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra – Thaksin’s daughter – in which she complained about a Thai military commander managing the border dispute.

“They’ve built a very strong relationship with the family of Thaksin Shinawatra. So, one can imagine that there was an enormous amount of trust between the two families,” Cambodia-based development advisor Digby Wren told Anadolu. “The fact that the Cambodian side released the recording is highly unusual.”

Wheeler believes Hun Sen is strategically using the leak “to play a nationalist card in an effort to shore up support for his son,” noting that Hun Manet “governs in his father’s shadow and lacks an independent power base.”

“There’s no doubt that Hun Sen succeeded in putting the Thai government on the back foot, and he’s clearly been trying to deepen existing distrust between Thaksin’s Pheu Thai Party and the Thai military,” Wheeler added.

Regional shifts

Supalak believes Thaksin’s decision to ally with military-backed parties in 2023 was a “mistake.” After finishing second in the 2023 elections, Thaksin’s populist Pheu Thai Party formed a coalition that included military loyalists, ultimately reducing its leverage.

“How can he (Thaksin) compromise and (still) trust the military?” asked Supalak, who serves as an advisor on the military affairs committee in Thailand’s parliament. Thaksin “(now) has no bargaining power… He has no card to play,” he noted.

As the border conflict escalated, right-wing groups and military factions began pushing narratives of “protecting national integrity and territory,” thereby boosting the military’s political standing, according to Supalak.

Meanwhile, in Cambodia, tensions with Thailand have led to Thai products disappearing from local markets, observed Wren, highlighting Vietnam as an emerging beneficiary.

“It appears that Vietnam is the big winner. It has no security threat, and it has increased its political influence inside Cambodia,” Wren noted, adding that Hanoi benefits commercially and politically, including within the ASEAN forum.

Vietnam has also seen concerns ease over the China-funded Funan Techo Canal, which had threatened Hanoi’s economic influence over Cambodia.

“This conflict has rebalanced the commercial and trade ties with Vietnam,” Wren explained. Hanoi is “going to have a greater say in the Cambodian economy, and in this way, Vietnam is a winner twice.”

Strain on ASEAN centrality

Khang Vu, a visiting scholar at Boston College and expert on Southeast Asian economics and politics, warned that the border clashes pose a serious threat to ASEAN’s cohesion and centrality.

“The use of force by Thailand and Cambodia has already undermined how ASEAN members should have solved their differences,” Vu told Anadolu.

Hun Sen and Hun Manet (Photo Credit: Hun Manet, Facebook)

Although the two nations eventually agreed to a ceasefire – partly under pressure from US President Donald Trump threatening to block trade deals – the damage to ASEAN’s unity remains evident.

Earlier, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, current ASEAN chair, had called the leaders to urge an end to cross-border fighting.

Alhamdulillah, dua negara sahabat ASEAN, Thailand dan Kemboja bersetuju menamatkan persengketaan melalui pelaksanaan gencatan senjata bermula tengah malam ini.

Malaysia, selaku Pengerusi ASEAN, menerima amanah besar bersama rakan-rakan lain untuk memantau pelaksanaan dan… pic.twitter.com/w2lLMeetm3

— Anwar Ibrahim (@anwaribrahim) July 28, 2025

Vu stressed that continued conflict could invite greater interference from major powers such as the US and China. “The ASEAN inability to solve problems,” he warned, “is a recipe for external interference.”