MOSCOW

There are at least five possible scenarios that might play out in the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan, where tensions have recently been escalating, according to a Russian political analyst.

“I see five possible scenarios under which the situation in Karabakh may develop – the Armenian unrealistic, inertial, ideal, compromise and the Armenian radical,” Sergey Markov, director of the Institute of Political Studies, a Moscow-based think tank, and a former adviser to Russian President Vladimir Putin, told Anadolu.

The Armenian leadership is fighting for an unrealistic option according to which Yerevan de jure recognizes Karabakh as Azerbaijani territory, but de facto the Armenian community of the region preserves its autonomy, he said.

In this scenario, international structures serve as guarantors of the autonomy, including the EU and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), in which France, currently Armenia’s most important ally, plays a decisive role, he noted.

“This option is not feasible for several reasons. Firstly, because Azerbaijan is much stronger than Armenia, why should it concede to Armenia?

“Secondly, because Armenia’s allies like France are allies more in words, even if these words sometimes take the form of resolutions. But this ally will not provide Armenia with any serious economic assistance, let alone any military help.

“And the third most fundamental reason is that Azerbaijan already has a very negative experience of the autonomy of the Armenian community of Karabakh. The Armenian community of Karabakh cruelly abused this autonomy before. It rebelled, started a war, killed many people, and expelled many Azerbaijanis,” he said.

Azerbaijan knows from its own historical experience that the Armenian community of Karabakh does not know how to use the rights of autonomy, Markov stressed.

Relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia have been tense since 1991, when the Armenian military occupied Nagorno-Karabakh, a territory internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, and seven adjacent regions.

In the fall of 2020, Azerbaijan liberated several cities, villages and settlements from Armenian occupation during 44 days of clashes. The war ended with a Russia-brokered cease-fire.

Tensions between the two nations, however, continue despite ongoing talks over a long-term peace agreement.

Most probable and ideal scenario

According to Markov, the “most probable” scenario is the “inertial” one, according to which disputes and discussions will continue, but in some two-and-a-half years, the Sochi agreement on the deployment of the Russian peacekeeping mission in Karabakh will end, the contingent will leave the region, and the Azerbaijani army will “calmly enter the area.”

“The Azerbaijani president may reward some Russian peacekeepers for something, but will not extend the term of the agreements on the deployment of the peacekeeping mission because Armenia does not abide by them,” he said.

In this case, there will be no serious clashes, some rearguard skirmishes are possible, but to a minimum extent, he said.

“I see this basic inertial option as the most probable,” he noted.

It would be “ideal” if Armenia's leadership, realizing its responsibility to the world and the people, could find the willpower and sign a peace agreement with Azerbaijan, Markov said.

“This means Yerevan recognizes that all the laws of Azerbaijan apply in Karabakh and the security of the Armenian community of Karabakh is ensured in accordance with the constitution of Azerbaijan, as is the security of other peoples living on the territory of the country.

“The probability of this option is very low, because (Armenian Prime Minister Nikol) Pashinyan is afraid that in this case, he will be overthrown, maybe some radical revanchists may even demand to shoot him,” he said.

The ideal scenario may be softened, turned into a compromise one, suggesting the gradual transfer of control to Azerbaijan and taking the measures on integration of the Karabakh community into the Azerbaijani society and statehood, he said.

‘Armenian radical scenario’

Meanwhile, Yerevan may attempt the implementation of the “Armenian radical scenario,” under which it withdraws from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), breaks ties with Russia, and may even sign an agreement with NATO under which the alliance’s forces and a US military base are deployed on its territory, Markov said.

“This option now seems absolutely fantastic, impossible, but I have no doubt that the Armenian leadership considers it, because they have an eternal dream that someone else should fight for their interests,” he said.

“Since Russia refused to send the Russian army to fight for the interests of Armenia, they are now looking for other countries that could fight for their interests,” he said.

After the conclusion of a truce between Russia and Ukraine, at the request of France, Ukrainian military units may be deployed on the territory of Armenia, he continued.

“If there is a huge Ukrainian army that will stand, since a truce will be concluded, then the use of this Ukrainian army in other countries in the interests of the leading NATO countries is possible,” he said.

The expert also said that the radical Armenian scenario can only come true if the whole situation becomes protracted and Armenia has time to implement it.

“But I think Azerbaijan will not give Armenia time if it sees it taking some steps in this direction. This will only lead to the early entry of the Azerbaijani troops on the territory of Karabakh because of Armenia’s violation of the cease-fire agreements,” said Markov.

“There may be intense fighting. But in principle, in a few weeks, maybe even days of intense fighting, Azerbaijan will take full control of the entire territory of Karabakh.”