• Far-right party Sanseito won the third-most votes in recent upper house election, shattering the notion that Japan is immune to populism
• Sanseito used digital media to attract young male voters with anti-immigrant messaging and conspiracy-laden rhetoric, say experts
• ‘If exclusionary politics continue gaining ground, Japan risks eroding its peaceful and inclusive society,’ warns Yasuo Takao of Curtin University

ISTANBUL 

Sanseito, a far-right populist party, shocked the Japanese political establishment last month by winning 15 seats in the House of Councilors election – securing the third-largest share of votes and shattering the long-standing belief that modern Japan is immune to populism.

The party’s “Japan First” platform includes stricter immigration controls, a halt to welfare payments for foreign residents and even a proposal to “check the loyalty” of foreigners. The party has successfully framed immigration as a “silent invasion,” despite Japan having one of the lowest shares of foreign residents among developed countries.

Experts say the party is capitalizing on a broader sense of discontent, as its core support comes from young men drawn to Sanseito’s nationalist messaging and anti-establishment tone.

Deepening economic insecurity is also fueling the party’s rise. Many young voters face stagnating wages, insecure job markets and a growing belief that the postwar model of stability and prosperity has broken down.

Critically, analysts point out, the party’s leadership has also figured out how to speak directly to these disillusioned voters.  

Social media as a political engine

Indeed, the internet has played a decisive role in Sanseito’s rise.

Party leader Sohei Kamiya, 47, a former English teacher and unsuccessful 2012 candidate for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), built a large online following by promoting COVID-19 conspiracy theories and anti-vaccination content.

Alongside Kazuya Kyoumoto and Yuya Watase, Kamiya launched the Political Party DIY YouTube channel in 2019. That platform laid the foundation for a grassroots movement. They formed Sanseito the following year – its name translated in English to the Party of Do It Yourself.

Fabian Schaefer, an academic at the Friedrich-Alexander-Universitat Erlangen-Nurnberg, described Kamiya as “an influencer” and noted Sanseito’s seamless use of digital tools.

“Sanseito is native to social media,” the professor of Japanese studies told Anadolu, contrasting the party’s strategy with the more conventional methods of established parties.

The party’s YouTube channel currently has 496,000 subscribers and more than 1,600 videos published so far.

“Its voters often harbor deep distrust of traditional media and government institutions,” Yasuo Takao, a political scientist at Curtin University, told Anadolu. He called the party’s “savvy digital election strategy” critical to its performance at the polls.

“The proliferation of social media has deepened bonds among like-minded individuals but also narrowed empathy toward those with differing views,” he added.  

Echoes of Western populism

Schaefer attributes Sanseito’s success to a blend of three factors: social media fluency, a right-wing populist agenda similar to what is seen in Europe and the US, and the use of conspiracy theories.

Sanseito’s messaging mirrors that of far-right parties like Alternative for Germany (AfD) or Reform UK, particularly in its anti-immigration stance. Yet unlike Japan’s more extreme groups, such as the Conservative Party of Japan, Sanseito has tapped into a broader and more mainstream base.

As the political landscape shifts, Schaefer said traditional parties may feel pressure to adopt Sanseito’s communication style to keep pace.

“What might happen, very likely, is that populism will become a part more than it has been before in Japan, than before Sanseito was there,” he said.

He warned that anti-establishment parties focused more on disruption than governance could weaken Japan’s political discourse. Schaefer also said he could not rule out the possibility of Sanseito gaining more seats in the 2028 general election.

“With the LDP becoming weaker, fringe parties like Sanseito are becoming stronger,” he added.

Takao, however, finds it unlikely that Japan will face the deep polarization seen in parts of Europe.

“As in Europe, where populist parties often moderate once in power, Sanseito’s true direction will become clearer during parliamentary deliberations,” he said, suggesting the party may temper its rhetoric to remain politically viable.  

Immigration and Japanese identity

Takao warned that a continuation of “exclusionary politics” puts Japan at risk of “eroding its longstanding identity as a peaceful and inclusive society.”

“Building consensus across diverse views and backgrounds is the only viable path forward for Japan’s future.”

Despite Sanseito’s rhetoric, Japan remains one of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries with the lowest percentage of foreign residents – about 3%. Still, perception often outweighs reality.

“When a Japanese person walks into convenience stores, where workers used to be mostly Japanese, they now see more and more foreign students working there, which reinforces that perception,” Schaefer said.

He said significant changes to Japan’s immigration policy are unlikely, noting that the country already has one of the world’s most restrictive systems.

“What will change is this more perception – or this feeling of being threatened by foreigners,” he explained.

Takao pointed out that Japan has never fully embraced the idea of being an immigration nation. Foreign workers are largely seen as a temporary labor solution, not part of a long-term integration strategy.

Still, symbolic shifts are already underway, he said.

For instance, international students were recently excluded from a major research grant program. While not a direct threat to daily life, the move signals “a growing exclusionary undercurrent that could subtly but significantly reshape Japan’s foreigner-related policies,” he added.

With an aging population and shrinking workforce, Schaefer said Japan will need more foreign labor, particularly from South Asia. He added that the global right “has no real answer” for demographic decline.

Takao added that the rise of the party should trigger a national conversation. “Japan must seriously reflect on the benefits and challenges of immigration – and to consider what kind of society it wants to be.”  

Foreign policy ambiguity

On foreign affairs, Schaefer said Sanseito lacks clarity – a hallmark of many populist parties.

He said the party, like the ruling LDP, supports revising Japan’s pacifist Constitution and strengthening the military, particularly Article Nine, which outlaws war as a means to settle international disputes.

Takao suggested the party may eventually advocate for a more independent security stance, relying less on the US despite taking much of its playbook from the West.

While Sanseito has tried to broaden its appeal, its leaders have also courted controversy.

Kamiya apologized after using a racial slur against Koreans during a campaign speech. In another incident, a livestream was abruptly cut after he said: “Only young women can have children … older women cannot have children.” Party officials blamed the interruption on heat-related issues.

Takao said this balancing act is intentional.

“The party often avoids explicitly controversial claims on its official website and in campaign materials,” he said. “Instead, it promotes broadly appealing policies to reach a wider electorate.”