- Macron articulated this ‘third way’ to find a 'mutual arrangement where Europeans and Southeast Asians strengthen their own strategic autonomy,' researcher Jean-Loup Samaan tells Anadolu

- France’s Indo-Pacific bid was 'well received,' but 'expectations are now high … despite the reality of limited capabilities,' says Celine Pajon of the French Institute of International Relations

ISTANBUL

French President Emmanuel Macron has wrapped up a week-long visit to Southeast Asia, promoting what he calls a “third way” to help countries avoid being drawn into the growing rivalry between the US and China.

Macron’s tour took him to Vietnam, Indonesia and Singapore between May 25 and 31, part of a push to position France — and by extension, Europe — as a viable partner for nations navigating the tensions of a shifting global order.

At the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, a key annual security forum, Macron portrayed France as both an Indo-Pacific actor and a diplomatic counterweight in the region. He urged like-minded countries to deepen cooperation and uphold a “rules-based” international order.

“The time for non-alignment has undoubtfully passed but the time for coalitions of action has come and require that countries capable of acting together give themselves every means to do so,” Macron said in his keynote speech.

Analysts say Macron’s “third way” is more than a rhetorical device. According to political scientists who spoke to Anadolu, the French leader is pushing a broader strategy of “strategic autonomy” — both for France and for its potential partners in Southeast Asia.

“The way he articulated this ‘third way’ at the Shangri-La was to find a mutual arrangement where Europeans and Southeast Asians strengthen their own strategic autonomy,” said Jean-Loup Samaan, a research fellow at the Middle East Institute of the National University of Singapore.

He argued that the French approach is one of “mutual benefit” in which France would avoid pressuring local partners or forcing them to pick sides.

“He advocates for strategic autonomy for both France and Europe, aiming to reduce vulnerabilities linked to overdependence in economic, energy, and security domains — whether from the United States, China, or Russia,” said Celine Pajon, head of Japan and Indo-Pacific research at the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI).

According to Pajon, Macron’s pitch is consistent with his foreign policy since 2017 and echoes the Cold War-era independence promoted by former French leader Charles de Gaulle.

“In this context, he promotes a policy of de-risking and hedging vis-a-vis revisionist powers, while maintaining a solid alliance with the United States,” she said.

But Pajon was quick to underline that France’s interests in the Indo-Pacific are not just body_abstract or ideological. Instead, the “primary” objective, she said, is to protect Paris’ “sovereign interests” in a region marked by geostrategic tensions.

France has multiple overseas territories across the Indian and Pacific Oceans — an often-overlooked fact that Paris uses to frame itself as a “resident” power in the region.

“There’s a territorial element to the French policy, as Macron and all the previous French presidents said France is a resident state of the Indo-Pacific,” said Samaan. “In terms of sovereignty, France considers itself to be a part of the legitimate players here.”

For Macron, experts say, the Indo-Pacific is not just about strategic balance — but about shaping a new regional architecture that includes players beyond Washington and Beijing.

“The idea is that if you have middle powers, third parties like France, it changes the nature of the game in the sense that it’s not just about US-China competition. It’s also about middle and local powers charting their own trajectory,” Samaan said.

Economic stakes

While Macron’s security message had the spotlight at Shangri-La, both Pajon and Samaan emphasized the economic underpinnings of France’s Indo-Pacific strategy.

“There’s the trade dimension, and in particular when it comes to arm sales, we see France being a major, or at least an active player in Southeast Asia, in Indonesia, in Vietnam, in Singapore,” Samaan said.

He noted that Macron’s outreach should not be viewed as “revolutionary,” but rather as a layered approach that combines trade, security, and diplomacy.

“Engaging with Southeast Asian countries is a key part of France’s strategy to hedge against global uncertainties,” Pajon said. “These countries are experiencing high economic growth and hold rich reserves of critical natural resources.”

France, she explained, is looking to diversify its trade and investment relationships while also strengthening economic security and building resilient value chains.

Pajon also pointed to Southeast Asia’s rising defense budgets, calling it a “promising market” for French arms exports.

Supporting local military development, she said, fits with France’s vision of “partnerships of sovereignty” that increase regional autonomy and resilience against “hegemonic pressures.”

Not pivot, but evolution

Some observers have speculated that France’s stepped-up engagement in Asia reflects a strategic pivot away from Africa, where it has lost ground in recent years. But Samaan dismissed any direct link between the two trends.

“I think there’s actually a lot of continuity between what Macron says and what most of the French foreign policy establishment thought about France’s global ambitions over the past decades,” he said.

Nearly all modern French presidents have described the country as a resident power in the Indo-Pacific, he added. Macron’s current strategy, then, is less of a shift and more of an update.

“I wouldn’t say it’s a shift towards the Indo-Pacific. It’s, in a way, an update on those ambitions,” Samaan said.

Pajon agreed, pointing out that France was the first European country to adopt an Indo-Pacific strategy in 2019 and helped push the EU to do the same.

“This early engagement stems from France’s unique status as a resident power in the Indo-Pacific,” she said.

What’s next for France’s ‘third way’ in the Indo-Pacific?

Macron’s message of “strategic autonomy” has found a receptive audience in Southeast Asia, analysts say — at least in principle.

“Southeast Asian diplomats or observers are interested in the rhetoric of Macron, but they remain cautious about the delivery,” said Samaan. “They look at European capabilities and they wonder what could France, or more broadly, Europe, bring to the table, and how much of that is going to make a difference if there’s a security crisis in the region.”

For France’s proposal to gain traction, he added, it will likely need to go beyond bilateral efforts.

“I personally think that the French position in terms of action will be credible if Paris is able, to Europeanize its policy,” Samaan said. “It’s only at the EU level that the idea of a third way could truly make a difference.”

Pajon also expects France to update its Indo-Pacific strategy soon to reinforce its commitment.

“France neither has the capacity nor the ambition to rival the United States in the region,” she said, but it aims to expand options in cooperation between European and Asian partners.

She noted that diplomats of countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) broadly welcomed Macron’s message, as it echoes the regional bloc’s own tradition of strategic non-alignment.

“Expectations are now high for France and Europe to deliver more substantively on their promises — despite the reality of limited capabilities,” Pajon said.

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