Japan's population projected to fall 30% by 2070

ANKARA

Japan's already dwindling population in 2070 is expected to fall to 87 million, shrinking 30% from its level in 2020, an official report said on Wednesday.

Citing an estimate by the National Institute of Population and Security Research, the local Kyodo news agency reported that foreign residents, including students and workers residing in Japan for over three months, may comprise 10.8% of the population at 9.39 million in 2070, expanding from 2.2% in 2020.

The country's population aged 65 or above is projected to hit 33.67 million in 2070 after peaking at 39.53 million in 2043. In 2070, they will comprise 38.7% of the population, resulting in a high rise in social security costs, the report said.

According to fresh estimates, Japan's current population of 126.15 million as of 2020 is expected to fall under the 100 million threshold in 2056.

The number of births, which already plummeted below 800,000 in 2022, is likely to hit a further low, below 700,000, in 2043, and under 500,000 in 2070, the report also said.

People aged 15-64, the working-age population that supports the country's social security systems by paying premiums, are forecast to decline sharply to 45.35 million in 2070 from 75.09 million in 2020.

The average age of the population is projected to be 47.6 in 2020 and rise to 54.0 in 2070.

Men's average life expectancy is expected to reach 85.89 in 2070 from 81.58 in 2020, while that of women is likely to climb to 91.94 from 87.72, according to the data.

Japan's population shrank by 556,000 in 2022 from a year earlier to 124.9 million, as the number of Japanese nationals saw its largest drop on record.

Dropping birth rate

An alarming trend suggests an immediate need for Tokyo to establish a social system to cope with the dual challenge of a declining birthrate and an aging population, according to the report.

Japan last year recorded the biggest fall in new births, with the number of babies dropping below 800,000 for the first time since the records began in 1899, the Health Ministry data showed.

It is also the seventh consecutive year that the number of babies born in the country continued to fall.

The number of births was down by 5.1% to 799,728 in 2022, the data showed. “Excluding children born to foreign parents, the approximate number of births is estimated to be around 770,000.”

The number of deaths last year “hit a record high of 1,582,033, up 129,744.”

Since 1973, when the number of new births peaked at around 2.09 million, Japan has seen a decline in the number of new births.

A decade later, in 1984, Japan's new births had fallen to 1.5 million, while in 2016, there were less than a million new babies.