• Beijing has responded with a series of retaliatory steps, including travel warnings, economic restrictions and canceled exchanges
• Diplomatic attempts to end the standoff have only led to more protests

ISTANBUL

Tensions between Japan and China have escalated sharply in recent weeks, with Taiwan at the center of the growing diplomatic spat.

The standoff started when Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi warned on Nov. 7 that any Chinese military action against Taiwan could constitute a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan – language that, under Japanese law, could authorize the use of collective self-defense.

Her remarks, made just more than two weeks after taking office, triggered a fierce reaction from Beijing and set off a chain of diplomatic confrontations, retaliatory economic measures and canceled exchanges involving both governments.

Soon after Takaichi’s remarks, Chinese Consul General in Osaka, Xue Jian, posted on the US social media platform X that he would “cut a dirty neck without a moment of hesitation.” The post was deleted, but triggered protests from Tokyo.

Despite the growing friction, Takaichi – known for her hardline stance on China – refused to retract her comments. Three days after her initial statement, she insisted that her assessment had been presented under a “worst-case scenario.”

Beijing responded on Nov. 13, when Vice Foreign Minister Sun Weidong summoned Japan’s ambassador in Beijing, Kenji Kanasugi, accusing Tokyo of making “erroneous remarks regarding China” and urging Japan to “immediately reflect and correct its mistakes, withdraw its bad remarks.”

A day later, in an apparent tit-for-tat move, Tokyo summoned Chinese Ambassador Wu Jianghao and lodged a formal protest over Xue’s comments.

Beijing remains enraged, saying that the remarks “seriously violate” international law, the basic principles of international relations, and the post-war international order.

“(The remarks) fundamentally damage the political foundation of China-Japan relations, and are extremely vicious in nature and impact, arousing the indignation and condemnation of the Chinese people,” Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning told reporters on Tuesday.

Economic retaliation expands

What began as a war of words, however, has since expanded into concrete punitive measures targeting Japan’s economy and tourism sector.

Within 24 hours of summoning the Japanese ambassador, Beijing issued a travel advisory on Nov. 14 warning Chinese citizens against visiting Japan, citing “multiple criminal offenses and incidents of attacks against Chinese nationals.”

The move was immediately felt in Japan’s tourism-dependent regions.

Chinese airlines began offering refunds for trips to Japan, and more than half a million flight bookings were canceled within days.

More than 6.7 million Chinese tourists visited Japan in the first eight months of the year, according to industry figures. Nomura Research Institute estimates the boycott could cost Japan as much as 2.2 trillion yen ($14.2 billion) annually, deepening concerns about Japan’s already sluggish economic growth.

A Chinese cruise ship scheduled to dock in Okinawa on Nov. 20 also abruptly canceled its stop.

After Tokyo continued its refusal to retract Takaichi’s remarks, Beijing subsequently moved to suspend imports of Japanese seafood. Imports were recently resumed after a two-year ban over release of treated radioactive water from the Fukushima nuclear power plant.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry claimed that Japan had failed to “fulfill its regulatory responsibilities to ensure product quality and safety for aquatic products.”

After China’s seafood ban, Taiwanese leader William Lai Ching-te posted pictures of eating food prepared with Japanese ingredients. Taiwan’s top diplomat Lin Chia-lung also urged citizens to increase travel to Japan and purchase Japanese products.

As tensions mounted, other sectors began to feel the pressure. Reports in China also indicated that importers and distributors had delayed the release of several Japanese films.

Japan's Embassy in Beijing also urged Japanese nationals in China “to work to secure their safety ... in view of the situation, including local media reports about the recent bilateral ties.”

China’s Commerce Ministry on Nov. 20 said that Takaichi’s remarks were “fundamentally undermining the political foundation of China-Japan relations and severely impacting bilateral economic and trade exchanges and cooperation.”

Total trade between China and Japan stood at $292.6 billion last year, according to Japan’s Finance Ministry. Bilateral trade between Japan and Taiwan totaled $72.3 billion.

Diplomatic efforts only increase tensions

Amid the flurry of actions and reciprocal moves, Tokyo dispatched senior diplomat Masaaki Kanai to Beijing on Nov. 17. He met with Chinese counterpart Liu Jinsong the next day and demanded the voluntary recall of Consul General Xue, while rejecting China’s travel advisory.

He insisted Japan’s public safety situation “is not deteriorating” and urged Beijing to withdraw the alert.

However, the meeting itself sparked controversy.

Video clips circulated online in China with the hashtag “Japanese official bows head while listening to the Chinese side,” showing Kanai bowing toward Liu. The video was reportedly posted by a social media account run by China’s state broadcaster CCTV, but later deleted.

Japan lodged another protest, accusing China of orchestrating “uncoordinated” press arrangements, though Beijing denied it was behind the release of such a video.

The diplomatic climate continued to worsen.

China postponed a planned trilateral meeting of culture ministers from China, Japan and South Korea, saying Takaichi’s remarks had “disrupted the foundation and atmosphere” for cooperation.

Beijing also blocked attempts to arrange a meeting between Takaichi and Chinese Premier Li Qiang during the G20 summit in Johannesburg this weekend.

Historical foundations of bilateral relations

Amid the escalating standoff, Japan’s government emphasized that it continues to adhere to its longstanding principles on China.

Top government spokesperson Minoru Kihara reaffirmed Tokyo’s commitment to the 1972 joint communique that normalized bilateral relations, in which Japan stated it “fully understands and respects” China’s position that Taiwan is an “inalienable part” of its territory.

But the historical sensitivities around Taiwan continue to shape the dispute.

Japan seized Taiwan in 1895 after defeating the Qing dynasty in the First Sino-Japanese War.

After World War II – which Beijing refers to as “the Chinese People’s War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War” – Japan relinquished control of Taiwan and the Penghu Islands, handing them to the Chinese administration.

At the same time, China reiterated that the “Taiwan question brooks no external interference” and described it as the “core of core interests.”

Yet territorial tensions today extend beyond the Taiwan issue. On Nov. 16, the China Coast Guard conducted a patrol in waters around the Japanese-controlled Senkaku Islands, which China claims as the Diaoyu.

Tokyo lodged a strong protest over Chinese patrolling, but Beijing said it does not accept the “groundless protest,” and lodged a counter-protest, urging Japan to “respect China’s territorial sovereignty.”as

Committed to ‘mutually beneficial’ ties

Despite the upheaval, Takaichi has sought to temper the fallout while sticking to her position. Speaking ahead of her departure for the G20 summit, she said Japan remains committed to building “mutually beneficial” ties with China, insisting that Tokyo’s approach “has not changed.”

Her initial remarks on Taiwan had come just a week after her first meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum.

At the time, Xi urged Takaichi to fulfill “clear provisions on major issues,” such as shared history and Taiwan, to ensure “the foundation of bilateral ties is neither damaged nor shaken.”

Xi also called for closer multilateral cooperation, advocating “adherence to the principles of good neighborliness, friendship, equality, mutual benefit and non-interference in each other’s internal affairs.”