- Ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s main rival is the opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan
- LDP might lose its majority but will remain in power through a coalition, says Japanese academic Saul Takahashi
- ‘Opposition parties are simply too disorganized to mount a serious challenge,’ Takahashi tells Anadolu
ISTANBUL
Japan will hold a snap general election on Sunday that represents a crucial test for new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and the scandal-plagued ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).
Over 105 million Japanese citizens are eligible to vote and elect lawmakers to the House of Representatives, the 465-seat lower house of parliament, locally known as the Diet.
There are over 1,300 candidates vying for a parliament seat, including a record 314 women.
A party or coalition needs 233 seats to form a government with simple majority.
In the previous setup, the LDP had a majority of 276 seats in the House of Representatives, thanks to a coalition with Komeito, a smaller party supported by a large Buddhist group that had 32 lawmakers.
The LDP, which has ruled Japan for the most part since 1955, is likely to face a strong challenge this time from the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ).
Polls suggest the CDPJ, which had 98 seats, could end up with as many as 140, which would put the LDP in a position where a coalition with Komeito is a necessity, not just an option.
The other major force in the previous parliament was the Japan Innovation Party with 44 seats, followed by the Japanese Communist Party and its 10 lawmakers.
Corruption, China, economy top poll issues
The elections are being held at a time of plummeting approval ratings of the LDP, which has been battered and divided by a scandal over undocumented political funds.
In recent months, prosecutors have raided LDP offices and even charged some members. The party also had to deal with the problem of influential factions within its setup.
“In response to public pressure, the party dismantled most of its large factions, which were essentially parties within the party, jostling for power,” Saul Takahashi, a professor at Osaka Jogakuin University, told Anadolu.
The corruption scandal “has been consuming the LDP for a while now,” he added.
“The rise of China is prominent in the public discourse as the country is constantly being framed as a threat; economically, security wise, even socially,” he said.
“But more than anything, the biggest issue is the long ailing economy.”
Once an economic powerhouse due to its manufacturing and exports, Japan has been battling a sluggish economy with wages that have been stagnant for more than 30 years.
It slipped to fourth position in the list of the world’s largest economies, below Germany, US and China.
“Economic growth has been stagnant since the real estate speculation bubble burst in the early 1990s,” said Takahashi.
“Successive governments have remained beholden to vested interests and to general complacency. They have proven completely incapable of pushing forward the kind of structural reform that could deal with the situation.”
He warned that Japan’s national debt “has ballooned to one of the largest in the world, making the situation untenable.”
“I fear the political class, and the population in general, is too complacent to make the kind of fundamental changes that are necessary,” said Saul.
“Rather, the go-to option has been to blame all the country’s problems on China.”
LDP is weak but opposition ‘too disorganized’
Takahashi believes the LDP is realistic about its electoral prospects and “has resigned itself to losing seats because of the corruption scandal.”
However, he said opposition parties have failed “to capitalize on the weaknesses of the LDP in any serious way.”
“The opposition parties are simply too disorganized to mount a serious challenge,” he explained.
“That’s not necessarily because the majority of the populace agrees with the LDP’s positions … Through its many decades in power, the LDP has built a powerful machinery that extends through the country at a grassroots level.”
That kind of mobilization capacity “is something the opposition simply doesn’t have,” he added.
“The media has also helped frame the last time the opposition was in power, from 2009 to 2012, as a period of chaos,” he said, referring to the CDPJ’s last stint in government.
Saul said most Japanese feel “there aren’t any viable options, and that has led to widespread apathy and a low voting rate.”
“The LDP might lose its single majority, but with its coalition with the Buddhist party, for sure they will remain in power,” he said.
“For better or for worse, surprises are few and far between in Japanese politics.”
The US factor
For Japan and its politics, a lot also depends on the outcome of the US presidential election on Nov. 5, according to Takahashi.
“Many segments of the right, mainly right-leaning media and commentators, have adopted what I would call a pretty overt pro-Trump view,” he said.
“They think Trump’s tough stance on China will benefit Japan, but that is foolish and naive. During his first presidency, Trump was very hard on Japan, demanding that Japan shoulder much more of the burden of defense, both of Japan and in East Asia generally.”
Currently, under a bilateral defense treaty, more than 50,000 American soldiers are deployed in Japan, and Tokyo shares the costs for their maintenance.
“The whole thing is indicative of the very narrow-minded worldview of the Japanese political class. Essentially, they can only see the world through an American lens,” he said.
