• As world leaders gather in Brazil for COP30, experts say the gap between climate action and ambition has never been wider
• ‘CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial use have grown by over 7% globally since 2015, and no doubt we will hear again this year that they are continuing to rise,’ says climate scientist Alice Larkin
• Current progress is ‘far from sufficient to keep us below the critical threshold’ and the world needs ‘to go much further and faster and close the ambition gap,’ says WWF-Türkiye’s Tanyeli Sabuncu

LONDON

A decade after the Paris Agreement promised to unite the world behind a 1.5C climate goal, emissions continue to rise, and scientists warn the global community is running out of time. As world leaders gather in Brazil for COP30, experts say the gap between ambition and action has never been wider.

There has been “woefully poor progress” since the 2015 Paris Agreement, said Alice Larkin, a climate scientist and professor at the University of Manchester. “CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial use have grown by over 7% globally since 2015, and no doubt we will hear again this year that they are continuing to rise.”

The UN climate summit, hosted in the heart of the Amazon, aims to translate a decade of pledges into measurable action. Yet even as negotiators gather, emissions are still climbing, and the world’s carbon budget for 1.5C is almost spent.

Larkin said the rate of change needed is now extraordinary. “At this point in time, emission reductions need to be over 20% per year globally, if the 1.5C temperature rise is to be avoided because the available carbon budget is so small,” she told Anadolu.

That, she added, translates to just three to four years left at current emission levels before the goal becomes impossible to achieve: “Progress and what is needed remain at odds with each other.”

Despite near-universal participation in the Paris Agreement, Larkin said wealthier nations have failed to align their emissions-cutting plans with their historic responsibility and capacity.

“It is unrealistic to expect developing countries not to have a rise in their own emissions when seeking to eradicate poverty and improve human well-being, with much more limited resources,” she said.

She argued that the agreement faltered not only on ambition but on equity and “techno-optimism” – the misplaced faith that new technologies alone would deliver decarbonization without deeper societal change.

Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) from wealthier nations “need to be much more ambitious than they have been to date,” she added.

- ‘COP meetings need reform’

Larkin also noted that while global emissions grew at a slower pace during the pandemic years, this temporary dip only masked the underlying failure of governments to phase out fossil fuels. “That slower growth trend illustrates just how poor positive climate action has been,” she said.

Asked whether she expects COP30 to mark a turning point, Larkin expressed doubt. “There is always a risk that it will be more talk and limited action,” she said.

“I’ve been losing faith in this process over the years, but I also recognize that it is important for those with limited opportunity to have influence – those in the Global South – to be given a platform at these meetings.”

She argued that the structure of COP summits themselves needs rethinking. COP meetings “need to reform” and refocus on transitioning away from fossil fuels as rapidly as possible, with much greater attention to “what the wealthier nations are really able to do in terms of their energy demand and social change,” she said.

Larkin emphasized that many solutions already exist – from renewable energy and efficient transport to demand reduction – but governments have failed to implement them at the necessary scale.

The world needs to find ways to transform societies and use those existing solutions “to keep as much of the stock fossil fuel in the ground as possible,” she said.

- Current progress ‘far from sufficient’

While the Paris Agreement set the 1.5C threshold as a safeguard for humanity, the world is now on track to warm by 2.3C to 2.5C by the end of the century, according to recent climate projections.

“There has been some progress,” said Tanyeli Sabuncu, senior climate and energy manager at WWF-Türkiye, citing the fall in projected warming from the 4C pathway predicted before 2015.

He pointed out that renewables now generate more than one-third of global electricity and are cheaper than new fossil fuels in 90% of the world.

However, he said that progress remains far too slow. “It is far from sufficient to keep us below the critical threshold. We need to go much further and faster and close the ambition gap,” Sabuncu said. “We must have stronger commitments and more decisive action to phase out fossil fuels.”

Sabuncu stressed that the 1.5C limit remains crucial to protect both people and ecosystems. “The more temperatures rise, the more extreme the impacts of climate change will be,” he said.

He added that even if temperatures temporarily exceed 1.5C, there remains hope of bringing them back down – but only with massive global cooperation.

“It is still possible to overshoot and bring temperatures back below 1.5C by the end of the century, but only with concerted focus on deep emissions cuts and restoring and protecting nature.”