- Analysts warn that the multibillion-dollar project could exacerbate regional tensions, particularly between New Delhi and Beijing

SRINAGAR, Jammu and Kashmir

China’s late-December announcement about constructing the world’s largest dam in Tibet has generated mixed reactions and potentially set the stage for renewed geopolitical tensions.

The $137-billion Zangmu Dam, set to dominate the Yarlung Tsangpo River, is seen by many as a testament to China’s technological prowess, a strategic maneuver in regional geopolitics, and a substantial step toward meeting its energy demands.

It is projected to generate nearly 300 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) annually, dwarfing the capacity of China’s current record-holder, the Three Gorges Dam, which produces 88.2 billion kWh.

However, a key detail is that while the Yarlung Tsangpo originates in Tibet, it goes on to flow through India, where it is called the Brahmaputra, and further into Bangladesh as the Jamuna.

Given this transboundary nature, China’s announcement has raised alarm, particularly in New Delhi, which already faces strained ties with Beijing over territorial disputes.

On Jan. 3, India’s Ministry of External Affairs urged China to ensure that the project does not harm the interests of lower riparian nations.

Spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal emphasized the need for transparency and consultation, underscoring that India would monitor developments and take necessary measures to protect its interests.

Concerns of downstream nations

Speaking at a 2020 event organized by the China Society for Hydropower Engineering, Yan Zhiyong, the then-chairman of the Power Construction Corporation of China, labeled the mega-dam a “national security project.”

He emphasized that it would ensure China’s water resources and homeland security, contribute over 20 billion yuan ($3 billion) annually to the economy, and foster smoother international cooperation between China and South Asia.

However, on the contrary, the potential impact of the mega-dam has fueled anxiety in downstream nations India and Bangladesh

The project’s location near the Great Bend, where the river takes a sharp U-turn close to the Indian border, amplifies its strategic implications.

Suvojit Bagchi, an analyst based in Kolkata, told Anadolu that the lack of reliable data makes it difficult to predict the project’s impact on water flow or downstream communities.

“First, we need clear data … The people of Arunachal Pradesh need it as they will be the first set of Indians to get affected by this dam,” he said, referring to a northeastern Indian state that China claims in full, adding a layer of complexity to the issue.

Mega dams on transboundary rivers are often seen as tools of power projection, raising fears of potential “water wars.” Upper riparian states like China wield significant influence by controlling the flow of water, which could be weaponized during conflicts.

The Yarlung Tsangpo-Brahmaputra is, therefore, a site of planned and ongoing mega-dam projects by China, India and Bhutan.

China has already operationalized several dams along the upper reaches of the Yarlung Tsangpo, including the Dagu, Jiexu, and Jiacha projects, primarily for hydropower.

Experts believe that the dam-for-dam competition among China, India, and Bhutan could have long-term environmental and social consequences, warning that rapidly executed infrastructure projects may exacerbate flooding, disrupt ecosystems, and displace communities.

India’s response, viewed as a countermeasure to China’s dam, includes plans for a 12,500 MW hydropower project in Arunachal Pradesh.

However, Bagchi explained that local resistance could derail the project: “The locals wonder how a mid-sized dam downstream can be any match to a mega dam upstream. There is resistance to this and the mega Tibet dam, as people fear displacement, flooding, crop damage, threat to livelihoods.”

Legal and environmental challenges

The 2,900-kilometer (1,800-mile) Yarlung Tsangpo-Brahmaputra river system sustains millions of lives across three countries and accounts for 30% of India’s freshwater resources. Its high sediment load and seasonal variability make it prone to devastating floods, particularly in India’s northeastern Assam region and Bangladesh.

Futher complicating matters is the fact that neither China, India, nor Bangladesh are signatories to the 2014 UN Convention on the Law of the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses, so without a binding legal framework, disputes over first-user rights remain unresolved.

Although India and China established an Expert Level Mechanism (ELM) in 2006 to address outstanding issues and share hydrological data, the absence of a comprehensive bilateral treaty exacerbates tensions. The construction of the Tibet dam adds another dimension to the border dispute between the two nations, which escalated into violent clashes in 2020.

Mohammad Zakaria Polash, a geopolitical analyst based in Bangladesh, told Anadolu that unilateral initiatives on transboundary rivers are “fundamentally unjust and constitute a violation of international conventions and norms governing the equitable sharing of water resources.”

“From a Bangladeshi perspective, it is imperative that all stakeholder nations – both upper and lower riparian – engage in mutual cooperation to ensure that water streams are distributed fairly,” he said.

Polash urged regional powers to abandon selective approaches that prioritize self-interest: “All countries must abandon cherry-picking matters that align with their interests, while ignoring other issues. That undermines trust and cooperation.”

He also criticized India’s track record, accusing it of “unilaterally withdrawing water from several rivers flowing into Bangladesh.”

“In this context, India must first rectify its own approach to its neighbors, fostering trust and confidence through equitable water-sharing practices,” he said.

“Only then can countries in the region collectively address larger geostrategic challenges, such as those posed by China’s unilateral actions on the Brahmaputra.”