• As South Korea’s President Lee moves to reset relations with Pyongyang, analysts say careful coordination with the US is essential for chances of success
• Experts say Lee’s trust-building gestures so far are largely symbolic and an attempt to keep the door open without overcommitting
• Analysts say there is a risk that Pyongyang could see Seoul’s steps not as goodwill but as weakness, pushing demands ever further out of reach

ISTANBUL

Since his snap election victory in June, South Korea’s President Lee Jae Myung has moved quickly to reset relations with Pyongyang, halting propaganda broadcasts and dismantling loudspeakers along the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) in an attempt to restore trust.

Yet analysts warn that without careful coordination with the US, these gestures may falter. That places even more importance on Lee’s visit to Washington on Monday for talks with US President Donald Trump.

Over the past two months, Lee has suspended leaflet campaigns targeting Pyongyang, ended anti-North television and radio broadcasts, and ordered the removal of loudspeakers on the border.

“These preemptive trust-building steps by our government represent proactive measures intended to reduce military tensions on the Korean Peninsula and to foster an atmosphere of peace,” South Korea’s Unification Ministry said in a statement to Anadolu.

The South Korean government “hopes that the North will likewise respond positively to these efforts to restore trust and resume dialogue between the two Koreas,” it added.

Pyongyang has already stopped its own loudspeaker broadcasts and ceased jamming South Korean radio signals, but experts caution that such moves alone may not revive inter-Korean dialogue.

“It all depends on how Kim (Jong Un) will assess this – he could see Lee’s reaching out as a sign of weakness and that could embolden him to demand more concessions,” said Jingdong Yuan of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

“If South Korea and the US could offer North Korea the temporary suspension of large-scale joint military exercises in exchange for a return to the negotiation table, with some offerings of economic assistance, that will at least test Kim.”  

Nuclear status as a precondition

Even before Lee departed for his first summit with Trump, Pyongyang made its stance clear. Kim Yo Jong, the North Korean leader’s sister, declared that recognition of North Korea as a nuclear weapons state was “irreversible,” dismissing denuclearization as a “daydream.”

Lee’s visit to Washington, after a stop in Japan, highlights both opportunity and tension. The summit comes amid Trump’s tariffs on Seoul and US pressure for South Korea to pay more for hosting 28,500 American troops.

Jingdong warned that Lee’s softer approach – a complete upending of his predecessor Yoon Suk Yeol’s hardline stance – will only succeed with US alignment. “It needs careful coordination with the US and consensus to make it both credible and acceptable,” he said.

If Kim still refuses talks, he argued, the issue will boil down to recognition: “Without getting recognized from South Korea and the US as a nuclear weapons state, any talks will inevitably lead to discussion of the North Korea nuclear issue, which he is not interested in.”

Since Trump’s three summits with Kim during his first term, Pyongyang has ruled out negotiations that touch on its arsenal, and has enshrined nuclear status into its Constitution, with Kim calling it “irreversible.”

Nothing that Lee says or does “would have a significant impact on the denuclearization agenda – we are already past this point and the reasonable near-term objective would be to reduce/manage risks and pave ways forward toward arms controls on the nuclear issue,” said Jingdong.  

Lee’s pragmatic approach

Lee’s strategy, analysts suggest, reflects pragmatism rather than ideology.

“Lee sees better inter-Korean relations as ‘nice to have,’ but not essential,” said Christopher Green, an expert on Korean affairs at the International Crisis Group.

“He has other political priorities, and no strong ideological commitments in the inter-Korean arena.”

Green noted that Lee understands Pyongyang’s current stance is “extremely uncooperative,” and so is cautious not to expend political capital. His Liberation Day speech, where he pledged not to seek “unification by absorption” or “hostile acts” against the North, was designed to signal restraint.

Since taking office, Lee has also appointed “pro-engagement” veterans to key ministerial posts. “These appointments please the left factions in his party, while keeping the door open to dialogue if North Korea shifts policy,” Green said.

Still, expectations in Seoul remain modest. “By presenting a non-threatening face to Pyongyang, South Korea maximizes its (low) chances of fostering pro-engagement officials in the North. But for North Korea today, there is no reason to restore ties, as it does not need anything South Korea currently offers,” he explained.  

Security guarantees and US coordination

Unification Ministry officials insist that close cooperation with Washington is central to Lee’s policy.

“Maintaining a strong deterrence posture against North Korea’s nuclear weapons and military provocations on the basis of the solid South Korea-US alliance, the government will also work toward building peace on the Korean Peninsula through dialogue and cooperation with North Korea,” they said.

They also voiced support for “US-North Korea talks that contribute to peace on the Korean Peninsula and to progress in inter-Korean relations.”

But Green cautioned that expectations are “extremely low,” given Pyongyang’s reliance on ties with Moscow and Beijing.

North Korea’s deepening military cooperation with Russia adds complexity, with Putin and Kim signing a strategic partnership in June 2024 pledging mutual defense. The pact with Moscow “does not impact inter-Korean political relations, but it does impact Seoul’s security calculus, since it makes North Korea a more formidable opponent,” Green said.

South Korea’s Unification Ministry officials stressed that cooperation between North Korea and Russia “must be conducted in strict compliance with United Nations Security Council resolutions and international law, and in a manner that does not undermine peace and security on the Korean Peninsula or in the wider international community.”

Seoul “will manage its relations with Russia in a stable and responsible way, while taking the necessary measures to ensure that closer North Korea-Russia ties do not adversely affect the security landscape of the Korean Peninsula or inter-Korean relations,” they added.

While North Korea once used improved ties with Seoul as leverage to draw Washington into talks, analysts say that dynamic could return, but not in the near term.

“Maybe in the future, but not now,” Green said. “If Trump were to put full nuclear recognition of North Korea on the table, maybe the dynamic would change. But North Korea is not desperate.”