The author is head of the Centre for Diplomatic Affairs and Political Studies (DIPAM) in Istanbul.

ISTANBUL 

Japan is shifting away from its post-war defense policy. Its new national security strategy is expected to double defense spending over the next five years with a major military modernization effort. So, what should we know about Japan's new military build-up?

What is the background of Japan's new military policy?

Article nine of Japan's 1947 Constitution, which came into effect on May 3, 1947, after World War II, states that the country rules out war and the use of force in settling international disputes.

The article also says Japan will not maintain land, sea, or air forces with war potential.

However, once the US ended its occupation of Japan, it quickly became clear that the country would be completely vulnerable to attacks from its neighbors, like China and Russia.

A month after the Korean War erupted in 1950, the US occupation forces established the National Police Reserve, a lightly armed 75,000-person national force.

Japan's current army, the Japan Self-Defense Force, was established in 1954. Six years later, Tokyo signed an agreement stating that the US would maintain military bases in Japan and protect the island nation from attack.

The defense strategy of pacifist Japan was heavily dependent on the US, due in part to the American military bases on its territory.

Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe loosened the post-war military restrictions stipulated in the Constitution as part of a security policy he called "proactive pacifism" and reformed the Self-Defense Force.

The ruling Liberal Democratic Party in 2015 passed legislation to allow Japan to send troops overseas and join allies in military operations for the first time in 70 years.

Abe promoted the new military legislation, saying it would strengthen the nation's commitment not to wage war and to contribute to world peace and prosperity.

What does the new military policy offer?

Japan's new national military policy was shaped by three strategic documents released in December 2022: The National Security Strategy (NSS), the National Defense Strategy (NDS), and the Defense Buildup Program.

According to these documents, Japan raises defense spending from about 1% of GDP to 2% under a five-year plan that follows NATO defense investment targets.

A potential $315 billion defense budget will make Japan the world's third-biggest military spender following the US and China.

The plan also includes acquiring offensive weapons and reshaping the military command structure.

The most high-profile investments will be in counterattack capabilities, including the purchase of long-range missiles, with the potential to hit ships or ground-based missiles at a distance of 1,500-3,000 kilometers (932-1,864 miles).

With these capabilities, Japan will be able to hit military targets in mainland Asia, including China, North Korea, and Russia.

Despite the Constitution prohibiting the use of force, Japan called its new strategy one of "preventive attack," legitimizing it as a means to "attack the forces of an enemy trying to invade Japan."

These documents also highlight the importance of "Comprehensive National Power (CNP)" in reference to the combined use of diplomacy, military power, economic power, technology, and intelligence.

They also emphasize the development of cybersecurity to protect Japanese government networks and critical infrastructure.

What are the effects of the new defense plan on the region and global security?

According to the documents, Japan finds itself in the midst of the most violent time since the end of World War II.

The National Security Strategy calls China arguably the biggest strategic challenge facing Japan and North Korea a more serious and imminent threat than ever before to Japan's national security.

This strategy also underlines Tokyo's decisive position in the Russia-Ukraine war.

Japan is facing a very hostile strategic conjecture, due to its geographical proximity to China, North Korea, and Russia, and these countries are seen as threats to the common values and envisioned global security structure of the US and its allied European powers.

Tokyo's bid to increase its power against these threats is also seen as an advantage for Asian democracies.

More importantly, however, this new strategy may lead to a misunderstanding of Japan's foreign policy by its neighbors, as Tokyo is becoming a military power and accelerating the arms race.

This situation may lead to an escalated security dilemma, first in the Asia-Pacific and then in global security competition.

Japan's drive to arm itself is also supported by the US and Europe under their responsibility to preserve the current global system and democratic values.

While this change may pose a new problem for the global system, we can predict that the Japanese defense buildup will not end any time soon, making Tokyo, an economic and political powerhouse in the Asia-Pacific, a major military force in the region as well.

*Opinions expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Anadolu.