• Lee’s win means South Korea ‘can finally draw a line under the illegal martial law … and get back on track,’ says academic Cho Hee-kyoung

• Lee appears to understand that convincing citizens of his commitment to a balanced approach, both domestically and internationally, is essential, says Seoul-based analyst Don Kirk

• On China and North Korea, Lee will go for a practical approach that protects South Korea’s strategic autonomy and economic interests, says academic Chien-Yu Shih

ISTANBUL 

South Korea has elected a new president exactly six months after the East Asian economic powerhouse descended into political and economic chaos triggered by former President Yoon Suk Yeol’s controversial attempt to impose martial law.

The election of Lee Jae-myung, a prominent liberal figure and former factory worker who narrowly lost to Yoon in 2022, comes at a crucial juncture for the nation, and according to analysts, with a feeling of relief for many.

Given the events of the past six months, “the reaction is relief for most people,” Cho Hee-kyoung, a professor at Hongik University in Seoul, said in an interview with Anadolu.

In early December last year, after months of bitter conflict with a parliament dominated by Lee’s Democratic Party, Yoon declared martial law. Troops were dispatched to parliament on the night of Dec. 3 to block opposition to his decision – actions later ruled unconstitutional by South Korea’s Constitutional Court.

Lawmakers swiftly impeached Yoon 11 days later, and in April, the court formally removed him from office, triggering snap elections.

Lee won the presidency on Tuesday with 49.42% of the vote, gaining a decisive mandate to govern a nation seeking stability.

“It was as if ordinary life had been suspended for the past six months, with all the uncertainty and so many things being in limbo,” recalled Cho, who witnessed the outpouring of public resistance against martial law on that cold December night.

Over these tumultuous past months, divisions within South Korean society became increasingly stark, with rival political factions holding separate, often contentious rallies.

While investigators sought to arrest Yoon, security personnel loyal to him resisted, resulting in scenes previously unseen in the nation’s recent history. Meanwhile, YouTubers and far-right commentators publicly voiced support for the former president, deepening societal rifts.

“There are deep divisions in South Korean society,” veteran analyst Don Kirk told Anadolu over the phone from Seoul.

However, Kirk suggested that Lee might be uniquely positioned to bridge those divides, something reflected in the president’s initial remarks that conveyed a clear intention to unify rather than divide.

“No matter whom you supported in this election, I will serve as a president for all to embrace and serve every citizen,” Lee promised at his inauguration ceremony.

Kirk noted Lee’s balanced approach, suggesting he would try to “appeal to all sides” and not “go too far left,” despite leading the liberal Democratic Party.

Lee appears to understand that convincing citizens of his commitment to a balanced approach – domestically and internationally – is essential, he said.

Lee “wants to convince people that he is defending everybody’s interests and not trying to undermine the alliance with the US,” Kirk stressed.

Reviving South Korea’s economy

Analysts unanimously point to the economy as Lee’s primary challenge. South Korea, among the world’s top 20 economies and heavily reliant on exports, has seen its GDP growth stall amid political instability and increased trade barriers.

“The biggest priority for Lee will be the economy, which has really been suffering since the (Yoon) self-coup,” Cho emphasized. “Domestic consumption is down and so are exports. Businesses are closing and unemployment is climbing.”

The economy was further strained by US President Donald Trump’s tariffs, which included a 25% levy on steel and aluminum imports from South Korea, significantly impacting the country’s key exports.

Shipments to the US dropped sharply in May for the second time after contracting in early 2025.

The last six months have reminded people of the COVID-19 era, when businesses took a heavy hit, Cho noted.

“Dealing with the economy automatically means having to deal with foreign affairs for an export-dependent economy like Korea,” she added.

Kirk agreed, pointing out that much depends on how Lee negotiates tariffs and trade policies with Trump’s administration.

Lee is expected to meet Trump on the sidelines of the NATO summit at The Hague later this month. They could cross paths a bit earlier if South Korea is invited to the June 15-17 G7 summit in Canada – a possibility, according to Korean media reports.

Diplomatic balancing act

Besides economic challenges, President Lee faces critical diplomatic hurdles, particularly involving North Korea and neighboring China.

Under Yoon, South Korea aligned itself closely with the US and Japan against North Korea, but Lee now seeks to re-establish dialogue with Pyongyang and prevent further escalation.

“We will strengthen South Korea-US-Japan cooperation based on a solid Korea-US alliance, and approach relations with neighboring countries from the perspective of practicality and national interest,” Lee said after taking office.

Chien-Yu Shih, a Taiwan-based academic and commentator, suggested that Lee “is likely to seek to revive the ‘Panmunjom talks’ (inter-Korean dialogue) to de-escalate military tensions on the Korean Peninsula.”

Seoul has “always sought to pivot itself within this triangular relationship,” he explained, predicting potential geopolitical changes in Northeast Asia under Lee’s administration.

Lee himself has emphasized dialogue and reconciliation with North Korea. He vowed to seek peace and mutual prosperity, stating plans to form a joint inter-Korean military committee to manage tensions.

Kirk highlighted, however, that Pyongyang would likely await clear signals of reduced military coordination between Seoul and Washington before fully engaging.

“A lot would depend if Lee approves large-scale drills with the US,” Kirk added.

Regarding China, Chien-Yu, who is associate research fellow at Taipei-based Institute for National Defense and Security Research, suggested Lee would pursue a pragmatic policy approach that protects South Korea’s strategic autonomy and economic interests.

Lee is “unlikely to adopt the previous president’s confrontational stance toward China,” he said.

On key economic and trade issues such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, electric vehicles, and rare earth supply chains, Chien-Yu said Lee would “likely pursue a ‘Korea-first, strengthened cooperation with China’ approach.”

“In the US-China rivalry, South Korea stands to gain,” he contended, highlighting Lee’s priority on national interests above ideological alignments.

In sum, experts argue that Lee’s election offers South Korea an opportunity to heal from recent wounds and stabilize after months of upheaval.

Cho underlined Lee’s capacity to restore normalcy, concluding, “Lee’s win means that South Korea can finally draw a line under the illegal martial law and its aftermath, and get back on track and restore normalcy.”