Omer Ozkizilcik is a non-resident fellow at the Syria project of the Atlantic Council and a foreign policy and security analyst.

ISTANBUL

The PKK has been waging a terror campaign against Türkiye for decades and has employed several different strategies. However, one aspect remained steady over this period, at least until now. Terrorists who have Turkish passports have always dominated the terrorist group PKK, but due to developments in Syria, the organization's human capital is drifting towards Syria.

Why is terrorist group PKK's human capital shifting from Türkiye to Syria?

Looking at the Qandil leadership of the terrorist group PKK and its founding members, all of them were born in Türkiye. Like the leadership, the members were also Kurds from Türkiye. The terrorist group could always count on several recruits from Türkiye, but with several policies the Turkish government changed this dynamic. The number of people joining the terrorist group PKK from Türkiye decreased [1] from a whopping 5,558 in 2014 to only 48 in 2021. This sharp decrease is grounded in two main reasons.

The first reason is the policies the government employs to address the needs and demands of Kurds in Türkiye. Under the presidency of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Kurdish was no longer banned [2], and cultural rights [3] were broadly granted. The predominantly Kurdish regions in southeastern Türkiye have seen significant economic development [4]. The Turkish government managed to address most of the root causes for Kurds in Türkiye to join the terrorist group PKK.

The second reason is the enhanced security in the regions of Türkiye where Kurds mostly live. The Turkish army successfully drove the terrorist group PKK out [5] of the Turkish borders and took the fighting into neighboring Iraq and Syria [6]. The PKK no longer has direct contact with the locals in Türkiye and thus is less likely to recruit new members by abducting [7] them or manipulating them.

What does Syria provide to terrorist group PKK/YPG?

While the terrorist group PKK's human lifeline in Türkiye was strangled, the civil war environment in Syria provided the PKK with a new opportunity. Twelve years have passed since the handover [8] of predominantly Kurdish areas in Syria by Damascus to the Syrian offshoot of terrorist groups the PKK and the YPG. With US assistance since 2014, the terrorist group YPG expanded its territorial control way beyond its dreams [9]. Lastly, Russia's protection [10] since 2019 prevented any ground operation against the terrorist group PKK/YPG.

Within these years, the terrorist group PKK/YPG established a governance model based on democratic confederalism, which is a Marxist model embraced by the PKK's founder Abdullah Ocalan and entrenched its control. Over the years, the terrorist group YPG has dominated the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), recruited thousands into its ranks, either by forced conscription [11] or willingly by offering propaganda and economic incentives.

The deteriorating economic situation [12] in Syria, as well as the overall destruction due to the war, provides the terrorist group PKK/YPG with a large recruitment pool. Thanks to salaries being paid by the US, [13] the PKK/YPG can offer strong economic incentives for recruits. Additionally, the terrorist group PKK/YPG enforces a curriculum [14] that is not accepted anywhere in the world, including Syria, that endorses [15] the PKK's ideology and tactics.

Changing leadership in terrorist group PKK/YPG

The change in human capital also shows itself within the upper ranks of the terrorist group PKK/YPG. While the current leadership is dominated by Kurds from Türkiye, the upcoming and rising figures are Syrian. New prominent terrorists' names like Mazloum Abdi, Ilham Ahmad, Mahmoud Berkhadan, Bahoz Erdal, and Layla Qahraman are all Syrian, not by coincidence but due to structural change.

Also, the Turkish drone strikes in Iraq to kill mid and senior-level commanders of the PKK confirm this change. Up until September 2022, only half of the eliminated targets [16] are Turkish Kurds, and the majority of the other half are Syrian Kurds. The rate of Kurds from Türkiye is a stark decrease from the past.

In contrast to the past, the PKK uses Syrian Kurds on the political front as well. The political umbrella of the terrorist group PKK/YPG, the Syrian Democratic Council (SDC), employs an office in Washington [17] and has even signed a $50,000 contract [18] with the renowned Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck lobbying firm. Similar patterns can be seen [19] in Europe. The US partnership with the terrorist group YPG provides the PKK with a bypass from its terrorist designation.

Also among legitimate Kurdish parties, the terrorist group PKK uses its Syrian branch. In this manner, the relationship between the Iraqi-Kurdish Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and the terrorist group YPG is vital. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has stated [20]: "We will not hesitate to take further measures if the PUK does not change its supportive attitude towards the PKK despite our sanctions against Sulaymaniyah in Iraq." The Turkish drone strike in April that missed [21] Mazloum Abdi in Sulaymaniyah also shows that the Syrian Kurds play a growing influence inside the terrorist group PKK.

[1] https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/politika/icisleri-bakani-soylu-2014te-5-bin-558-kisinin-katildigi-teror-orgutune-bugun-48-katilim-vardir/2427184

[2] https://tribune.com.pk/story/611866/turkey-to-lift-headscarf-ban-boost-kurdish-rights

[3] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-24330722

[4] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/turkey/investment-in-turkeys-southeast-rises-with-solution-process/69305

[5] https://setav.org/en/assets/uploads/2018/06/36.-Strategy-Collapses-introduction.pdf

[6] https://research.sharqforum.org/2022/05/05/turkeys-anti-pkk-operations/

[7] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/woman-whose-daughter-was-kidnapped-by-pkk-in-germany-visits-protest-in-turkey/2274118

[8] https://www.clingendael.org/pub/2021/the-ypgpyd-during-the-syrian-conflict/1-an-extraordinary-tale-the-ypgpyd-rises/

[9] https://www.dailysabah.com/politics/2017/08/26/us-backed-sdf-to-start-offensive-for-deir-ez-zor

[10] https://politicstoday.org/why-russia-protects-the-ypg-in-syria/

[11] https://euaa.europa.eu/country-guidance-syria/26-persons-fearing-forced-or-child-recruitment-kurdish-forces

[12]. https://www.mei.edu/publications/syrias-economic-freefall-continues-despite-arab-league-return

[13] https://comptroller.defense.gov/Portals/45/Documents/defbudget/FY2024/FY2024_CTEF_J-Book.pdf

[14] https://www.trtworld.com/magazine/a-looming-education-crisis-grips-syria-s-sdf-controlled-areas-44559

[15] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/turkey/pkk-detains-teachers-opposing-propagandist-curriculum/2149734

[16] https://www.setav.org/en/remote-control-aerial-elimination-of-the-pkks-terrorist-leaders-and-operatives/

[17] https://www.syriandemocraticcouncil.us

[18] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/political-wing-of-terrorist-pkk-ypg-led-group-contracts-us-firm-to-lobby-federal-government/3094830

[19] https://menaaffairs.com/pyd-ypg-lobby-in-europe-and-the-netherlands/

[20] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/turkiye/turkiye-will-take-further-steps-if-iraqs-puk-party-fails-to-change-stance-on-pkk-terrorists-says-foreign-minister/3110439

[21] https://www.rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/080420231

*Opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Anadolu