US consumer sentiment in November down to lowest since June 2022

• University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index hits 2nd lowest level on record, just above June 2022's 50 points
• Short-term inflation expectations tick up to 4.7% in November, while long-term expectations down to 3.6%

ISTANBUL

Consumer sentiment in the US posted a decline in November compared to October, reaching its lowest level since June 2022, according to data from the University of Michigan's consumer survey released on Friday.

The index of consumer sentiment was down by 6% to 50.3 points in November, from the previous month's 53.6, hitting the second lowest level on record, just above June 2022's 50 points.

The sharp decline was led by a 17% drop in current personal finances and an 11% decline in year-ahead business condition expectations.

"With the federal government shutdown dragging on for over a month, consumers are now expressing worries about potential negative consequences for the economy," Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu said in a statement.

Hsu said that November’s decline was widespread throughout the population, seen across age, income, and political affiliation, with one key exception: consumers with the largest tercile of stock holdings posted an 11% increase in sentiment, supported by continued strength in stock markets.

"Interviews for this release closed prior to Tuesday’s elections," she added.

Short-term inflation expectations rise slightly, while projections for future fall

Meanwhile, short-term inflation expectations edged up to 4.7% in November from the previous month's 4.6%, staying well below the expectations in May in the wake of the initial announcements of President Trump's tariff changes.

On the other hand, long-term inflation expectations were down to 3.6% in November from October's 3.9%.

"These expectations are now below the midpoint between the readings seen a year ago and the 2025 peak reading from April," Hsu added.